Great Lax State

First win over an in-state rival in program history? Sounds like fun. Now turn around and play one of the sport’s perennial powers a couple days later. Cool? Cool.

Johns Hopkins

The first bird-based mascot in the Big Ten.

Feb. 22 2014. Noon EST
Homewood Field
Live Stats. Video Stream (appears to be free).
@jhumenslacrosse, @UMichLacrosse
Michigan weekly notes. .pdf notes.
Johns Hopkins pregame notes. .pdf notes.
John Paul video preview.
Michigan Daily preview.

Tempo-Free Profile

The TempoFreeLax.com numbers displayed here are last year’s figures, probably for the second-to-last weekend this year (in a couple weeks, there should be enough data for this year’s digits to be relevant, and hopefully we’ll have worked out all the kinks in retrieving stats from the NCAA’s glitchy website). They are also adjusted for strength of schedule, in which Hopkins – 16th-toughest slate last year – did itself enough favors to make these all the more impressive.

Hopkins was really good last year, and through some quirks (two one-goal losses, with three-, four-, and five-goal losses as well), they managed to lose enough games to anger the RPI gods and miss their first NCAA Tournament since time immemorial. They were a top-five team in the country and lost their auto-bid to an overrated Notre Dame team that almost got upset by a 15-seed in the first round.

Ending that rant, the Blue Jays have a reputation as a somewhat slow team, but they were actually well-above average last year. That’s thanks in part to a good ride, which, along with the second-best faceoff unit in the country, made the No. 2 in possession percentage.

As you’d expect with a defensive mind like Dave Pietramala, the Jays’ defense was extremely efficient last year. Teams had a lot of trouble scoring on Hopkins, and were pretty into not doing that.

The Hopkins offense was the only chink in the armor. It was still decent – better than most programs in the country – but when you’re Hopkins and you load up on talent, middle-of-the-pack won’t do it. Hopkins scored in the single digits in four of its five losses last year, and only reached 10 goals in the other. Change one of those results, and the tournament streak lives on (they also scored single-digit goals in two wins).

Offense

So, let’s look at that loaded offense, yeah?

The leading scorer from last year is junior attack Wells Stanwick, who was balanced in his output as a sophomore, but has 10 assists and just two goals so far this year. What’s interesting is that he’s adjusted his game despite fewer finishers around him. Fellow attack Brandon Benn is back (he had an astounding 34 goals to just one assist last year, and has six and one thus far in 2014), but Zach Palmer, John Ranagan, Lee Coppersmith, John Kaestner, and John Greeley are not – among offensive players alone, not counting the losses of D-mids and faceoff specialists who also scored. That’s a whole lot gone.

Sophomore Ryan Brown is the third starter at attack, while Connor Reed and Rob Guida man starting midfield positions. Freshman John Crawley and sophomore Holden Cattoni have scored more than either of those two on the year, so there’s likely a greater emphasis on defense for at least one of them. Given Guida’s reputation as an offensive player, I’m betting it’s Reed.

This is an attack-oriented unit, with the three starters the top three scorers to date on the year. Stanwick has been your true feeder, while just about everyone else is more goal-heavy than assist-heavy. Slowing him down is clearly not easy, but it does go a ways toward slowing down the Hopkins offense writ large.

Defense

Eric Schneider has started both games in goal (and gone all but just over a minute this season between the pipes). He sat for three years behind Pierce Bassett, and has performed well in his step into primetime. He’s only giving up 7.5 goals per game in the Jays’ two contests, and is saving .568 of shots faced. Michigan doesn’t have a Jesse King like Ohio State does, so beating Schneider will be a tough task.

Jack Reilly is a returning senior from last year’s squad, but Chris Lightner and Tucker Durkin are both gone, meaning there’s not a ton of starting experience. Juniors John Kelly and Robert Enright have been around for a while though, so they’re not exactly spring chickens. LSM Michael Pellegrino is a returning starter at that position, and was the team’s non-faceoff leader in ground balls last year.

With the losses from the starting unit last year, expect a step backward, but not a serious one. Pellegrino’s return is a key one, and it remains to be seen just how good Schneider will be over the course of the year. Michigan might not be the team to test him, though.

Special Teams

Hopkins has been great on faceoffs the past three years, but loses its exceptional specialist in Mike Poppleton (.685 last season). The Jays have gone with Drew Kennedy this year, and hey! He’s been even better. With an admittedly small sample size (maybe Ohio State and Towson both stink at faceoffs – the Buckeyes were good last year but Towson was one spot away from dead last nationally), he’s won .756 so far this year. Part of that is wing play, but it’s clear Kennedy is pretty good himself. Backup Craig Madarasz has won two of five attempts.

Hopkins has been a heavier-riding team than you expect out of power programs nowadays, which I tend to like. They were No. 17 nationally last year, but alas, opponents are clearing 40/43 so far this year. In fact, Hopkins has been pretty bad in clearing itself, not what you’d expect from a team that basically has its choice among the best stickhandlers in the country on the recruiting trail. Ohio State rode them to a 17/21 performance, which isn’t that bad in the grand scheme. Seems like just a sample size thing.

The Jays have scored twice in six man-up opportunities, while holding opposing EMOs scoreless in the same number of chances. They’ll likely improve the former number over the course of the year, while the latter is as good as it gets. They play a pretty clean brand of lacrosse, so the extra-man probably won’t come into significant play tomorrow.

Big Picture

Michigan got what it needed with this week’s win over Detroit. The Wolverines have a multi-win season for the first time ever, are over .500 for the first time ever, and have as many positive vibes as they have in the program’s varsity history.

On a short turnaround, I don’t think they’re expecting to give Hopkins much of a game, but that doesn’t mean they’ll fold, either. Last year’s game between the teams was a pretty good result (though the Jays let off the gas, if we’re being honest with ourselves) for that stage of Michigan’s program. Hopkins doesn’t strike me as being quite as good as last year, while Michigan is night-and-day better.

Another scoring margin in the same range won’t be bad, as long as U-M does so in a more competitive fashion: no seven-goal run for Hopkins in the first quarter.

Predictions

I think, given the emotional game the other night, lack of time to prepare, and simple strength of opponent, this will be a tough game for Michigan. That’ll happen for another couple years.

• I’ve been sold on Brad Lott as a faceoff specialist from the beginning, and I think he’ll have a great performance. Lott will win about 50% of the clamps on faceoffs, but his win percentage will be significantly lower due to wing play. We saw Wednesday that he won just about every clamp, but the team only got possession on 75% of them (which is still, like, really good). Look for a .400 mark.
• Michigan’s difficulties defensively have had more to do with one scoring attackman over the three years of the program. An offense based around a distributor at attack is a different story, but Hopkins has enough weapons that they’ll be able to fill the net.
• I think Robbie Zonino will be a good goalie at Michigan, but the talent at Hopkins will be too much to handle in this one. Hopkins is shooting just .258 on the year to date, but they’ll crack .400 in this one.
• I’m unsure what to expect out of Michigan’s offense. It’s safe-ish to say they’re actually pretty good at this point in the year, but “actually pretty good” isn’t going to get it done against a very good Hopkins D.

Both teams have their share of runs, but Michigan’s are more two-goal compared to Hopkins’ four-goal (or more). The Wolverines look like they belong on the same field as the Blue Jays, an upgrade from last year’s “they aren’t any good but I can see potential for the future.” Still, Hopkins get a possession advantage and the offense and defense are too good to let Michigan keep this one that close. Michigan falls on the road, 16-9.

Share your predictions, discussion, etc. in the comments.