Bobby Mo is off to a rough start, losing to both out-of-state teams I’ve previewed thus far (Ohio State for Detroit, Bellarmine for Michigan). The Colonials were pretty bad last year as well, so they might be… not very good.
Robert Morris
Robert Morris signed the Declaration of Independence. Also: looked nothing like this picture.
Feb. 21, 2015. 1 p.m. EST
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Detroit Preview. .pdf notes.
Robert Morris preview.
Tempo-Free Profile
The TempoFreeLax.com numbers displayed here are last year’s, for at least a couple more previews for each team until the data is robust enough to be meaningful. They’re adjusted for strength of competition, so the Colonials’ No. 48 slate drags the numbers down a bit, but it’s pretty clear they weren’t so hot to begin with.
| Robert Morris 2014 | |
|---|---|
| Pace | 71.07 (5) |
| Poss% | 45.83 (64) |
| Off. Eff. | 28.30 (51) |
| Def. Eff. | 31.56 (36) |
| Pyth% | 30.05 (55) |
Robert Morris played blazing fast last year, but given how little they had the ball, that probably wasn’t much of their doing. Opponents controlled the pace (we’ll get into some of the details there in a bit), and although Robert Morris had a decent defense, there’s a reason they ran up a big possession deficit at such a fast pace.
The offense was pretty poor – not terrible, but bottom-quarter nationally – and part of the reason for its apparent struggle was the adjustment for strength of schedule. Bobby Mo played some good defenses, but some real dogs, as well.
As noted, the defense wasn’t bad – in fact was by far the best aspect of the team last season. The high-variance schedule plays a big part in that. Shutting down Wagner may impress the stats a little bit, but giving up nearly 20 to Drexel, Maryland, and Michigan is bad. They played well against bad teams and poorly against good teams (for some definition where last year’s Michigan team fit into the latter category). An about-average overall mark is warranted.
Offense
Fortunately for an offense that struggled last year, its key pieces are back to continue building and progressing. Eric Rankel, Luke Laszkiewicz, and James Rahe were in a tier by themselves with 35, 34, and 32 points, respectively. Laszkiewicz is the lone attackman of the trio, but all three had very similar 2/3-finish, 1/3-feed scorelines. All return.
The fourth leading scorer was A/M JonPatrik Kealey, but he was definitely a finisher first, with 23 goals to 7 assists. Although he is a sophomore, he has yet to see action in either of Bobby Mo’s first two games.
Redshirt junior Eric Wales, who missed last season, has stepped into a feeding void – the Colonials were one of the least assist-happy teams in the country last year – with a goal and four assists through two games. That added aspect probably makes for a more well-rounded offense, and one that’s more difficult to defend.
Pending the status of Kealey, midfielder Taylor Graves is the only double-digit point scorer from last year not to return to this year’s team, so it’s an experienced, more well-rounded group that last year’s offense, and should be much better.
Defense
The defensive side of the ball is a different story. Four goalies saw time last year, with starter Brian Bohn playing the lion’s share of the minutes (fellow senior Brian Czerwonka got 49 seconds). He’s gone, but neither of the returning players has seen a minute this year. Instead, freshman Chase Rose has played the entirety of the season, and his save percentage is actually pretty good (.521) but he’s seen plenty of rubber – and that’s against an Ohio State team that has yet to find its stride and a Bellarmine team that doesn’t pack much offensive firepower at this point in the year.
LSM Tyler Rankel and defenseman Alex Kelly are out the door with Bohn, so that’s a pretty significant hit to the defensive corps. Joe Scenna is back as a fifth-year senior. Junior Clay Fickenscher has started both games at LSM despite not playing a second last year. This is a unit in a bit of flux – there’s been some shakeup even between the first two games of the year – and I wouldn’t expect it to repeat last year’s performance.
Special Teams
Robert Morris was one of the worst-clearing teams in the country last year, which plays a huge role in the fast pace it played (and the possession deficit, to a degree). Things are looking better this season, maybe something of a surprise given the inexperience in the defense and defensive midfield. Again, sample size, etc. The Colonials aren’t riding at all – at least not successfully – but against a team like Detroit that has had its own struggles clearing over the years, they might try to play just a bit more pressure. Still seems like UDM should be able to get end-to-end without much difficulty.
Faceoffs were real, real bad last year (bottom-six in the country despite playing a lot of teams who were terrible on draws), and through a couple games, they aren’t any better this year. I like Detroit’s specialists, particularly Damien Hicks, and I saw good things out of the wing play against Michigan. Drawing even here is probably enough.
Robert Morris was really reliant on EMOs to score last year, despite their inability to stay out of the box themselves. They had a strong conversion rate, but obviously not as good as UDM’s record-setting unit. Assuming Detroit can keep penalties about even, that’s advantage Titans.
Big Picture
Detroit has already defied early expectations with a win over Ohio State, and building up a few non-conference victories would certainly be nice. In the grand scheme though, they’re ultimately meaningless when it comes to the season goal: NCAA Tournament. No matter how many games UDM wins, the RPI hit from playing the schedule it does will keep them from qualifying for the tournament as an at-large. They have to win the conference, and that’s the only thing that can get them to the Big Dance.
On the other hand, winning is good (#hotsportstake right there), and building up the quality of the program through earning wins is a positive. The Titans will have to pull upsets instead of coming close to them to get that momentum going, but they seem to have made strides with the Ohio State win.
Predictions
It’s tough to say whether terrible possession and a diminished defense will be bad enough to counteract what could be a good Robert Morris offense this season.
- Jason Weber is the key player for Detroit in this one. The Titans have a solid defense, but it’s clear Robert Morris’ offensive talent is there as well. Weber making a few saves that he shouldn’t (although it’s become the norm, so “shouldn’t” might not be the right word) can be the difference-maker.
- I like Detroit to win the faceoff battle, something that’s been very rare in recent seasons. Robert Morris is about as bad as they come at the X, and UDM has specialists and wing play to take down teams like that. They’ll still be dominated by the Ohio States or Michigans of the world, but can return the favor.
- Look for Mike Birney to have a nice day – if he can keep the ball on cage. He accomplished that against Ohio State, struggled with it against Michigan. Robert Morris’ defensive midfield is a major question mark, and two talented attackmen for the Titans should be able to set up each other and Birney.
- Speaking of those attackmen, I like Shayne Adams and Mark Anstead to find space and score against a softened Bobby Mo defense.
I’m going with Detroit’s ability to prevent goals in a battle of two good offenses against defenses with question marks. Jason Weber is the difference-maker, and Detroit should be able to do enough in the possession game to give itself a few more chances to score goals, even if the efficiencies aren’t radically different. Detroit wins, 14-10.
Share your predictions, discussion, etc. in the comments.