Detroit Preview: Marquette

Posting the D-1 previews out of order for this weekend, since I just profiled Bellarmine last week when they played Detroit so this one will be quicker. Michigan heads down to face the Knights on the road tomorrow.

Marquette

Not many good Marquette lacrosse logos available on the internet :/

March 15, 2014. Noon EDT
Titan Field
Gameday Central. Live Stats.
@DetroitTitans. @GreatLaxState. @MarquetteMLax
Detroit game preview. .pdf notes.
Marquette game preview. .pdf notes.

Tempo-Free Profile

The TempoFreeLax.com numbers displayed here are up to date for this season, since there’s enough data nationally that the numbers are pretty meaningful. The figures are also adjusted for strength of schedule, so Bellarmine’s No. 27 slate so far is about five teams above the national average. With a middling SOS, the numbers should represent the Eagles against average opposition (a level which Detroit is well below).

Detroit is actually neck-and-neck with Marquette in the national ratings, sitting at No. 50 to the Golden Eagles’ 51. However, the Titans are nearly four percentage points ahead, which would amount to a five-position drop in the rankings on the other side of Marquette. There’s a bit of a cliff there. This should be an evenly matched game, with the location another slight edge in Detroit’s factor.

Marquette plays a pretty slow game, which is probably the right move for them playing against several teams that are quite a bit better than them. It’s also good to try to convince the opponent to play slow when they’re dominating the ball against you.

That ball dominance has probably tired out the MU defense, which is one of the country’s worst units. Having good-not-great offenses from Marist and Duke put 16 and 20 goals on you, respectively, will tend to do that.

The one area where Marquette is actually building quite nicely in year two is offense. The Golden Eagles have made the most of their few possessions, putting together an offensive efficiency nearly in the country’s top third, despite the youth of the program. Since offense is often more skill/development than defense, it’s impressive to see what they’re doing with so much youth.

Offense

So let’s talk about that offense, yes? Fifth-year Presbyterian transfer (RIP, Blue Hose) Tyler Melnyk is the straw that stirs the drink with 15 goals and seven assists this year, nearly double the point total of either of the next two scorers on the board. One of those secondary scorers is fellow fifth-year attack Brandon Badolato (a Sacred Heart transfer), who has eight goals and four assists on the year. The third most-productive attackman is sophomore Conor Gately (despite his missing a game), who has four goals and four assists on the year.

The starting midfield is led by the other player who is tied for the No. 2 scorer on the roster, redshirt sophomore Kyle Whitlow. He has 10 goals and two assists on the year, more of your classic shooter thriving on the openings created by his attackmen. Freshman Ryan McNamara has been a consistent starter in the midfield as well, though he has just four goals and an assist to show for it. Marquette has rotated options at that third midfield spot, with sophomore Blaine Fleming (4G) getting the most run, and a lot of players who are listed as attackmen getting a single start.

The versatility provided there – playing attackman-sized midfielders opens more dodging options, for example – makes things a little tougher, but Detroit seems well-equipped to stop that aspect.

Brother Rice alum Henry Nelson has made it into only four games so far this season, but has scored a goal and added an assist in his limited time. Call it bias, but give that kid more time.

It’s clear that not only is this an attack-driven offense, it’s a Melnyk-driven offense. If you can shut him down, Marquette won’t have a lot of success – but it’s easier said than done. He’s put in good work against some talented defenses, and Detroit’s strength on that side of the field lies in their SSDMs rather than the close defense, and they haven’t been able to shut down excellent scorers thus far on the season.

The alternative strategy is to basically do as much as you can guarding Melnyk straight-up, while focusing on shutting down the other players on the field, and hoping he can’t basically beat you on his own. Preventing the ball from getting into his stick (about which more in a bit) is a strong strategy, as well.

Defense

Marquette has played a couple goalies extensively, but senior JJ Sagl (a Goucher transfer – it’s easy to see that Marquette built their program very differently than did Michigan) has gotten the lion’s share of the minutes. I… I have to be reading the stats wrong, or something has to be missing, because he has a mind-numbingly bad .278(!!!) save percentage on the year. That’s more than .100 worse than the next-worst qualifying goalie. As long as you’re putting shots on cage, you can beat him. A couple backups have also played, with sophomore Matt Barone only getting a few token minutes, but freshman Jimmy Danaher taking over the starting gig in recent games. Those went poorly (.323 save percentage, albeit with one of those games against some serious talent at Duke), but significantly better than Sagl had been doing. Look for the 5-9, 180-pounder to get the start.

Part of the reason the goalies are performing so poorly of course, is the amount of rubber they’re facing. Goalden Eagles (see what I did there) are looking at 201 shots through six games, though with a surprisingly low 109 of them on the cage.

The starting defense… it is not doing those guys favors. Junior Logan Tousaw (Onandaga Community College transfer) and redshirt sophomore B.J. Grill are the consistent starters there. Grill has caused seven turnovers this season, but Tousaw has only two. This is not a high-pressure unit. Redshirt sophomore Dan Mojica (listed at LSM) has gotten a couple starts, sophomore Brian Porter has picked up a couple, and freshman Nick Eufrasio has a couple starts himself. This has not been a consistent lineup at the third close defenseman.

The LSM is one of the bright spots on Marquette’s defense, assuming redshirt sophomore Liam Byrnes (who has zero starts on the year but leads poles in GBs) mostly plays there. He also leads the team in caused turnovers with nine. Wherever he primarily plays – I’m betting FO wing and close D – he’s been productive. Jacob Richard is the key SSDM on the roster, and he’s also a threat going forward. He has four caused turnovers and 20 GBs on the year, to go along with two goals and an assist on seven shots.

Detroit’s offense has moved in fits and starts throughout the year, but this looks like it’s the second-worst unit (only better than Mercer) the Titans have seen all year. With the volume of shots opponents have taken on Marquette, and the goalies’ inability to stop seemingly any of them, this should be an opportunity to get back into a rhythm.

Special Teams

A handful of different players have taken draws for Marquette this year, none too successfully. Redshirt senior Hofstra transfer Cullen Cassidy has been the most-deployed specialist, with three-quarters of the attempts – which he’s winning at a .470 rate. Sophomore Paul Riportella, redshirt sophomore (and Brother Rice grad) K.C. Kennedy, and redshirt junior Hofstra transfer James Raveret have all taken double-digit draws, winning between 20-25% each. Cassidy is your guy, and one that I think Damien Hicks, Tyler Corcoran, and Benjamin Gjokaj (and maybe even Jodan Yono, if necessary) should be able to defeat with good wing play.

Marquette is a decent clearing team, just outside the top third of the country, but they’ve faced teams a lot of teams that are either bad at riding (Jacksonville, Marist), or simply don’t care to put a whole lot of effort into that phase of the game. Detroit will be the best-riding team the Golden Eagles have faced, so there’s an opportunity to hassle them into some errors. Using the ride to prevent Melnyk from getting the ball is a good idea – though we’ve also seen Michigan try to ride the Golden Eagles and give up some transition opportunities for Melnyk. Marquette is a pretty good riding team, and Detroit’s clear has been awful. Expect several mid-field turnovers and a bit of chaos going end-to-end during the course of this one.

The Golden Eagles play a very clean brand of lacrosse, and when they do commit infractions, they’re decent at preventing the opponent from converting. Their man up is good-not-great, so against a team like Detroit that might ramp up ball pressure going into the second half of the season, they should get some EMO opportunities, and don’t be surprised if they convert.

Big Picture

Marquette was worse last year than they are this year… and they still managed to beat a better Titans team (albeit in the first home game in Marquette program history). Detroit will be looking for revenge at home, especially since it’s that time of year where UDM ramps up going into conference play to try to get into the NCAA Tournament.

In the grand scheme of things, this game doesn’t matter too much, except inasmuch as it’s the next regular-season game. There’s a bit of Jesuit lacrosse pride on the line as well, but winning this one to gain confidence for MAAC play is just as critical.

Predictions

The Detroit team that existed last year prior to the MAAC Tournament is not the team we saw for the final five or so games of the year, but I still don’t understand losing to Marquette. I don’t think it’ll happen this year.

• Tyler Melnyk puts together a strong performance, with at least six points, but he’s bottled up in crunch time. Much of his production comes through assists, rather than scoring himself, as Detroit overplays him at times.
• Detroit has at least two players take faceoffs, but they combine to win more than .500 of draws. Damien Hicks in particular has a strong day.
• The UDM offense finds its stride against a really, really bad defense. Only Mercer is worse among teams UDM has already seen this year. The Titans may launch a lot of shots off-target, but enough are on-target (and enough of those find their way through) for a pretty good day.
• Jason Weber gets his fourth straight start at goalie, and has a good performance. That’s enough to erase any doubt about who the Titans’ keeper is for the rest of the year, and the stability back there helps improve the D.

As the predictions should make clear, I think UDM will win this game. They’re better at basically every position on the field (though I’d take Melnyk on the Titans’ attack), and barring any weirdness – of which there’s frequently plenty in lacrosse, so that’s no guarantee – it should be a victory. Detroit (with help from its own mistakes at times) manages to push tempo for a faster game, and the Titans come away with a 14-9 win.

Share your predictions, discussion, etc. in the comments.