it’s here 🙂
In anticipation of tonight’s big in-state battle, let’s take a look at the unit matchups piece-by-piece. Penultimate peril: the other stuff
Common Opponent
Michigan and Detroit have both played one team already this year: the Mercer Bears. While both ended up winning, they did so in very different fashions. Michigan gave an early goal, then dominated the rest of the way. Detroit had to score three of the final four goals to escape with a 1-goal win.
How much can we count upon one game apiece to tell us the whole story of each team? In all honesty, not a whole lot. The one takeaway that resonates is “close v. not close,” since Michigan looked like they didn’t belong on the same field as Mercer (the Bears might have been more at home down the street at Pioneer High School), whereas Detroit went toe-to-toe with them the whole way.
I do think that those two data points show something about both teams, even as it relates to their relative strength (and there is predictive value going forward). However, on any given day, that one data point per team can mean everything or nothing.
Did Detroit have a bad day against Mercer that won’t be replicated? Did Michigan have a great day against the Bears that won’t be replicated? Did both teams play to their potential, but it won’t matter at all in the head-to-head matchup? There’s no way to know.
Statistical Matchup
Since the year is so young – and the NCAA’s stats website so glitchy – the full tempo-free data on both squads doesn’t tell us much yet. Here is an example of how crazy the stats can be: with all three teams’ games accounted for, Mercer is ranked No. 33… just three spots behind a Michigan squad that beat them by 13 goals last weekend. Detroit is at No. 22, eight spots ahead of No. 30 Michigan.
Still, we can learn a little about the squads. Michigan’s first opponent, Penn State, is the No. 3 team in the country (without the Loyola result showing up, so that’s all on account of stomping Michigan).
Detroit is top-20 in both offense and defense at this early stage of the season, and slightly below average in possession percentage. Michigan’s offense is No. 12 nationally thanks to the carpet-bombing of Mercer, but the Wolverines boast the No. 40 defense, thanks to Penn State’s offensive explosion. U-M is just a couple spots behind Detroit in possession percentage.
As much as one common opponent doesn’t tell us much about the two teams, early-season stats (especially those adjusted for schedule) are similarly meaningless.
Intangibles
One refrain I’ve heard since the weekend is that Michigan’s preparation for Mercer (playing a regular-season game against Penn State) left them more ready for the Bears than Detroit’s (a couple non-D1 scrimmages). UDM had to shake of rust, while Michigan was ready to play. While that may be true, clearly the Titans didn’t have all the rust off by the end of game one, whereas Michigan seemed to be operating in peak condition by the end of game two. Michigan will have to maintain that form and Detroit will have to elevate its own to give us the game we’re expecting.
The two programs have gone about building in very different ways. Michigan is emphasizing the traditional lacrosse hotbeds – Baltimore, Long Island, Philadelphia – and the West, while cherry-picking in-state to get guys who fit what they want. UDM, on the other hand, looks very heavily in-state, while picking up other talent from Long Island and Ontario (particularly Eastern Ontario). In many ways, there’s an argument that the bragging rights game is as much about the homegrown v. mercenary roster as it is about who rules the state.
That said, the rivalry factor is big as well. We see it regularly in practically every sport (particularly at the college level): when rivals play, throw out the record books. While the two teams probably have slightly different mentalities about the nature of the rivalry (for reasons listed above), both value it, especially this early in the year. Whether one team will ultimately prove to be dominant or the two squads are evenly matched, the rivalry factor always injects an element of the unknown.
The venue brings with it some unique challenges. Of course, Ultimate Soccer Arenas is the early-season practice facility for the Titans, so they’re used to the sightlines and lighting on the field. They’ve also played a game there, and just a couple days ago. Michigan, on the other hand, won’t be as used to that particular venue, though they practice indoors at this time of year, as well. U-M’s practice field is a darker (slightly smaller) Oosterbaan Fieldhouse, so at the very least there will be an adjustment. Penn State had more to do with this than Holuba Hall, but the Wolverines’ lone game to date in an away stadium didn’t go so hot.
External Links
Lots of chatter about this one.
- The Detroit Sports Commission has this contest as its headliner of the week. Mini-preview of the game.
- Chattin’ with Matt Holtz on video on the internet.
- Tickets may or may not be sold out by this evening. Buy them in advance by calling Ultimate soccer, if you can.
- Detroit is requesting that fans wear red to the game (along with the rest of their game notes). Gameday Central. Game notes.
- Michigan game notes.
Part the final: Predictions and how to follow coming to GLS shortly.