Preview: Detroit @ Michigan

This is the biggest day of the year for lacrosse in the state as far as I’m concerned. The state has never had two Division I programs at the same time until now, and the two playing each other is big.

Nice little rivalry, and obviously one that will transform along with the two in-state programs.

It is time. Again.

Detroit @ Michigan

7 p.m. EST
April 17, 2013
Michigan Stadium
Live Stats. Live video ($$$)
Event info.
@GreatLaxState.
@UMichLacrosse.
@DetroitTitans.
Michigan pregame notes. .pdf notes.
Detroit pregame notes. .pdf notes.

Michigan Offense v. Detroit Defense

With both teams in the GLS coverage area, the preview format will obviously be a bit changed. Bear with me.

Michigan’s offense has shown signs of life during the year, but has been mostly a wasteland. Near-shutouts against Army (one goal) and Loyola (three goals) will live in infamy. Meanwhile, Detroit’s defense has been pretty good. While it didn’t result in many wins early in the year (thanks to difficulties in the possession game and on offense), the Titans are really starting to come around.

The key to this matchup is a two-parter. First, Michigan’s offensive midfield against Detroit’s defensive midfield. This would have been a “no contest” in favor of the Titans earlier in the year, but the UDM short-stick defenders have experienced a lot of attrition. Nick Garippa is out for the year, Joe MacLean has been banged up (though seems to be back healthy), and Troy Dennis’s status is unknown after a concussion Saturday afternoon against Siena. Michigan has two very good offensive midfielders in freshmen Kyle Jackson and Mike Hernandez, and some OK pieces alongside those two. One of them will end up with a short-stick defender, and there’s a good chance it’s not a defender who was starting at the beginning of the year. That’s where the opportunities should come from.

The second part of the matchup is in the turnover game. Michigan commits a lot of them. Detroit forces a lot of them. Can the Wolverines hold onto the ball enough to stay in the game? The attack could be an area of weakness for Michigan, given that the Titans’ longpoles are very good. Jamie Hebden and John Dwyer should get their when it comes to caused turnovers. It seems like it would be wise for Michigan to keep it out of the sticks of their attack, unless they get a good matchup or Detroit backs off the pressure just a bit.

Detroit Offense v. Michigan Defense

This phase of the game is even more intriguing to me, because there are a lot of unknowns. Is Michigan’s defensive improvement a mirage? The Ohio State game would lead you to believe so, but several games of evidence leading up to that say it’s not. Is Detroit’s offensive improvement sustainable? The O has only broken out of the shell recently, so who knows how long the renaissance will last.

There are a couple key matchups in this one, as well. Can Michigan’s poles slow down a Shayne Adams-less attack? Alex Maini has put the team on his back since Adams went down with injury, but UDM seems to perform better on offense when he isn’t trying to do it all. Michigan’s close defense has been varying degrees of banged up this year, but at full strength, they may be able to slow down (though not shut down) an attack unit that doesn’t have its best player available.

The other key matchup has been the story of Michigan’s season, to a degree: can Gerald Logan steal a game? One of the top goalies in the country (No. 19 in the country playing behind a bad defense) has kept his team competitive in a few games, but hasn’t been able to take them all the way to the promised land just yet. He’ll have to play an excellent game – which we’ve seen him do in the past – in order to give his team a real shot to win.

Special Teams

This is a phase where there are a lot of things to talk about, and the table won’t do it justice. Let’s get right into the nitty-gritty.

On faceoffs, I get the impression that Michigan’s Brad Lott will do a better job winning clamps than will the opponent – whether it’s Damien Hicks or Tyler Corcoran. Lott’s big issue has been communication with his wings, and overall wing play. I think the Titans will have a distinct advantage there. The question is which team’s strength will win out? I tend to think it will be pretty even, with a slight advantage to Michigan. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hicks even things up a little bit with a clean win leading to a goal or assist (as long as that stick is legal…).

Michigan’s clear is decent, but the UDM ride has rounded into a very formidable unit. The Wolverines’ stick skills combined with the Titans’ aggressiveness should lead to some frustration for U-M. Those failed clears have also turned into transition opportunities for opponents during the season for Michigan so far, and that can be a weapon for a UDM offense that sometimes needs a spark. Coming in the other direction, Detroit’s clear is terrible, and Michigan’s ride isn’t so far behind that of the Titans. Like UDM, Michigan can use the transition game and a heavy press to create some opportunities for a struggling offense. Often when I look for a lot of failed clears and exciting transition opportunities, it doesn’t come to fruition. In this one – especially since it’s a rivalry game – I bet we see some midfield action.

“Dirty” isn’t the right word, but Detroit is certainly one of the most penalty-prone teams in the country. The Titans do a decent enough job fending off opponent man-up goals, but when you give up as many opportunities as they do, it’s bound to come into play. Michigan’s man-up is not particularly good, but the Wolverines do rely on the man-up to get a pretty significant proportion of their goals. This should be the place in which they can even up their deficiencies in other areas.

Big Picture

For both teams, this is meaningless in terms of season-end goals. Neither is in position to make the postseason based on anything that transpires in this game (or for Michigan, at all). The Titans want to fine-tune a little bit in this game and Saturday against Marquette for their final conference matchup against Canisius – in which the winner will make the MAAC tournament, and the loser likely miss out.

For Michigan, it’s about getting that first victory of the year. Any grander goals are long gone, and taking home a rivalry victory would be a good way to set the tone for the final two weeks. This Saturday’s game against St. Joseph’s would suddenly look like a probably win, and the season ender against Denver – while not a win – could look a little nicer with some momentum.

Most importantly, this is a game for bragging rights. Both teams feature players from Notre Dame Prep, from Brother Rice, from Detroit Catholic Central, and from Ann Arbor Pioneer. This one has all the friendly – and not so friendly – competition of a standard in-state rivalry.

Predictions

I’ve made some small predictions in the content above, I’ll leave anything more specific to the action that actually takes place on the field. Just a score: Detroit 12, Michigan 9.

Share your predictions, discussion, etc. in the comments.