Detroit Preview: Marist

After a loooong layoff, he Titans have a tough start to conference play, heading on the road to face the Marist squad that they nipped in overtime at home last year. Marist’s trajectory this year has been upward, while Detroit has taken a sharp turn downward since about the midway point of last season (after the Marist win, in fact).

Marist

The Red Fox will cuddle your team to death.

3:00 p.m. EST
March 16, 2013
Poughkeepsie, N.Y.
Fairfield pregame notes. .pdf notes.
Michigan pregame notes. .pdf notes.
Live stats. 
Live video. Even fewer people will pay 12 bucks to watch this than would pay nine to watch Michigan/Fairfield. Somebody needs to teach these athletic departments an Econ lesson.

Tempo-Free Profile

With Tempo-Free Lax.com fully up to date, the numbers shown here are adjusted for the strength of schedule (Marist has played the nation’s No. 63 toughest schedule to date – that’s dead last, folks).

The Red Foxes numbers, without exception, tells us the same thing about this team: they’re dead center in the middle of the pack. The offensive and defensive efficiencies both rank juuuust below-average when adjusted for schedule strength, but their decent possession percentage (mostly based on a great clear) takes them right up to average in the nation.

All told, they’ve done to the country’s worst schedule so far (they’ve dispatch #43 Stony Brook, #50 Sacred Heart, #38 Lafayette, #40 Towson doesn’t look bad, but there’s not marquee opponent there, that’s for sure) what you’d expect an average team to do – win by a about four goals a game. That’s decent enough – and #61 Detroit certainly isn’t going to make things any tougher – but they haven’t been tested one bit yet, and won’t be until they take on Duke Monday.

Let’s take a closer look at the personnel and what makes this team go.

Offense

Marist has played as few games as anyone in the country, so the stats haven’t fleshed themselves out too much, but we can start to see what they’re all about.

There are two finishers on this team in senior attack Jack Doherty and sophomore midfielder Mike Begley. Doherty has an 11G 3A line so far, and Begley isn’t far behind with nine goals and two assists of his own. Kind of the opposite of expected in today’s era of lacrosse, the attackman is a big 6-3, 200-pounder, whereas midfielder Begley is 5-10, 180.

The feeder for this offense is senior attack Connor Rice (who, to be fair, is the littler, shiftier attackman you’d expect). He has five goals of his own, but also leads the team in assists with seven. 6-0, 200-pound midfielder Patrick Eaker (1G, 2A) is the only other regular in the lineup with more assists than goals, though to be fair freshman attack Dillon Walker has put up two assists in just two appearances on the year (both in the comeback win over Stony Brook).

From there, the offense is filled with a number of role players, and most of their production comes from within the offense – and through the opportunities created by the above-mentioned.

Defense

Ethan Fox and Patrick Wall are the two dangermen of the Marist defense. They’re the two tops on the squad in caused turnovers with four and six, respectively, and right up there among non-faceoff players in ground balls. T.J. McDermott hasn’t exactly stuffed the statsheet, but has start all four games alongside those two. The Marist roster doesn’t differentiate D from LSM, so it’s a little tough to say what’s what there.

The Red Foxes have a few midfielders who register on the defensive end of the spectrum per the TFL formula (including the above-mentioned Patrick Eaker, though that’s probably due to moonlighting as a faceoffs specialist). Senior Mike O’Hagan looks like the top defensive midfielder, having caused four turnovers and picked up six GBs to this point.

Special Teams

Faceoffs have bene just below below average for the Red Foxes. Senior Matt Dugan is winning at an impressive .577 clip, but a couple other players have taken a shot (and done so very poorly). Expect to see Dugan on the majority of the draws. After three years of my expecting it to happen, the Titans have rounded into a decent faceoff team. They should be at a slight disadvantage against a guy like Dugan, but nothing serious.

The Red Fox clear has been very good (No. 11 in the country), and against a middling ride like Detroit’s, expect them to clear pretty well in this one. Flipping it around, the Marist ride is below-average, but Detroit has one of the worst clearing games in the country. This could be a battle of very movable object v. eminently resistible force that determines who wins the possession game.

The Red Foxes commit a ton of penalties, and opponents really don’t against them. That may not matter against Detroit (typically one of the most penalty-prone teams in the land), but the two squads should draw something close to even. Both squads are kinda bad at converting on EMO opportunities, so… don’t expect fireworks, even if there are many penalties in this one.

Big Picture

The Titans will have two wins in the past calendar year by the time this one gets started (Ok, actually by Sunday, but ya know, narrative). Things can no longer be described as a “slump” and it’s just gotten to the point where “just not any good” is more accurate. That’s unfortunate, but this is going to be the toughest conference game (by far, according to early-season data), and probably not the time to turn it around.

I’ve also heard that Shayne Adams will not be available for this one – and possibly much longer – so what very little offense the Titans did have (third-worst in the country, but who’s keeping score?) could be even tougher to come by.

Predictions

So, I think I’ve made it pretty clear that I don’t expect the upset, right? Let’s get right into it then:

• Marist wins the faceoff battle, but not by a wide margin. The Titans should hold their ground, and reaching 50/50 is a reasonable goal.
• The UDM offense, without Shayne Adams, completely sputters. It’s already been scoring just 6.4 adjusted goals per game, and to consider that things might get worse is a little scary.
• Despite playing an OK offense, I think the Detroit defense will perform pretty well. Both heavily-used Titan goalies have a propensity to steal a couple scores from the opposition, but also let in a soft one or two. That evens out in the end.
• The opening of conference play gives the Titans a bit of new life, and that fire causes them to come out a little tougher than expected. That will keep the score manageable, but also result in several penalties, which will be the team’s undoing.

Especially on the road, I don’t expect this one to go well. I’m willing to be pleasantly surprised, but I see a 10-5 outcome in favor of Marist.

Share your predictions, discussion, etc. in the comments.