I’ve had a few credible tips on the schedule sitting in my inbox (well, very credible now that I know they were completely correct), but I figured that I’d wait it out since a schedule announcement has been expected “soon” for a month. HOWEVA, if you’re distributing your spring schedule in hard copy to area high school coaches at your coaching clinic, it’s fair game for release to the public.
Without further ado:
| Date | Opponent | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| Feb. 4 | Denison (scrimmage) | Oosterbaan Fieldhouse |
| Feb. 12 | Detroit | Ultimate Soccer (Pontiac, MI) |
| Feb. 18 | @ Penn State | State College, PA |
| Feb. 25 | @ Denver | Denver, CO |
| Feb. 26 | Air Force | Denver, CO |
| March 2 | @ Jacksonville | Jacksonville, FL |
| March 4 | Mercer | Jacksonville, FL |
| March 7 | Loyola | Oosterbaan Fieldhouse |
| March 17 | Bellarmine | Michigan Stadium |
| March 24 | Mount St. Mary’s | Michigan Stadium |
| March 31 | @ Harvard | Cambridge, MA |
| April 7 | Delaware | Michigan Stadium |
| April 14 | Ohio State | Michigan Stadium (football Spring Game) |
| April 21 | @ Rutgers | Piscataway, NJ |
| May 5 | @ North Carolina | Chapel Hill, NC |
That’s five true home games, three neutral-site games (with varying levels of neutrality), and six away games. It looks like a 3-5 win season, but it could be a win or two better depending on improvement into the spring.
Michigan’s schedule is probably the most competitive ever for a first year varsity program. I’m surprised to see UNC on there…likewise, not seeing ND was unexpected.
“That’s five true home games, three neutral-site games (with varying levels of neutrality), and six away games. It looks like a 3-5 win season, but it could be a win or two better depending on improvement into the spring.”
I’m sorry, but you’re saying that if they improve during the spring you’re thinking there could be 7 wins? Which 7?
Poor wording on my part. I meant to say it looks like about 3ish now, but improving over the spring would push them toward the 5-win end of the spectrum, with maybe a surprise to do a little bit better.
If they get 3 that’s a heck of a first season w/ this schedule.
The Michigan name get them a number of games that other teams have been trying for years to schedule. By the time this year’s freshmen are seniors they will be battle tested, that’s for sure, but they are going go take a lot of poundings.
I’m seeing maybe 2 or 3 wins on there…if they improve. Mercer should be a win. They would have beaten Mercer last year as a club team. Other than that, there are none that I’d have them favored in. But there are a few they could possibly pull out.
I think it’s good they are playing teams like NC and Harvard. They will get smoked, but they will also get a very up close and personal look at what they want to be eventually.
Notre dame missing is probably because a top 5 team doesn’t have room on their schedule for a new team. Our guys could probably use some easier competition as a break too. I expect to see ND and Hopkins on the schedule for 2013 though.
This is damn close to the schedule and opponents I had said they would play, along with others they may, but JHU wouldn’t play them first year for obvious reasons. With that said, I can see 4 wins, with the Mount St. Mary’s game very competitive, and possibly even upwards of 5 wins depending on a few variables. An upset of Ohio State is unlikely this year, but could have happened more likely 2 years ago. 5-9 isn’t too bad with this kind of schedule to see what and where they need the improvement the most.
Which 4?
Mercer, Jacksonville, Detroit, and Mt. St. Mary’s
I know I will get crap for a couple of those, including MSM, but I know so many of these teams, including the coaches personally and players, and I think some of the players can match of pretty well in the game and stay close enough to have a 1 goal win outcome. Mercer is not strong enough yet, Detroit will play emotionally and lose in a close game, Jacksonville is not strong enough yet either even though their recruiting is getting decently better with lower recruits. The 5th win would come against Bellarmine in an upset ONLY because they have played them many times before, BUT it truly depends on injuries and how well these kids are picking everything up and are devoted to the season. We shall see!
your impression of jacksonville is way off the mark – Jacksonville, played a tough schedule last year – hung tough against some great teams, with only one blow out at Denver – and brought in Van Arsdale in August to coach – this years Jacksonville team will surprise many and i cant see Michigan being in the game past the first 5 minutes. Van Arsdale will turn this good team into a great team in a heart beat.
I’m not sure it’s safe to assume that new coach will mean automatic improvement for Jacksonville. It’s not like Kerwick is some scrub who they axed; he’s going to be the associate head coach (and presumably head coach-in-waiting) at Georgetown.
i see one win at most
Everyone is throwing out numbers w/ no opponents or reasons why.
I’m just curious. Does anyone want to break their picks down further?
I will put it to you guys like this, I know Michigan can beat Jacksonville and Mercer, and even compete with MSM because the MCLA teams who JUST played Carthage, played a team who played Michigan last year and got DESTROYED by Michigan in Missouri. Illinois lost by just a couple to Carthage, and Carthage a D3 school was on to win against a D1 Mercer last year and ran out of gas only to lose by 4, while Jacksonville did beat Detroit and Mercer in close games, and Mercer by much more, but is closer to Michigan in talent and Michigan could easily match them in every category. MSM counts on the fact they can out run their opponent late in the game, and Michigan has always been a very good conditioned team, so that’s not anything to be worried about, it’s just all about getting the defense better on transition and coverage and slides. Detroit is a great match up and will be a challenge, but like I said they will play emotional and I think Michigan will come to play and win by one or two goals with amazing saves. Is that good enough of a breakdown?
Detroit played Carthage in a scrimmage last year and destroyed them (read 20-0). Detroit played Mercer to 19-3 last year. Saying that Carthage is a good comparison to anything in D1 immediately costs you all credibility.
I’m not even sure where to start on the credibility. My brain hurts after reading that.
It was also a scrimmage without some of Carthage’s leading scorers and players playing…
Also, Jacksonville 24-Mercer 4. That is not close.
J’ville 10, Detroit 8. That is close.
I know the scores, I follow lacrosse, did you notice the “Mercer by much MORE,” obviously not, Michigan can beat these teams with execution. Instead of just throwing scores around, throw in some actual breakdown abilities, in fact, I will buy you some Excedrin because it’s obviously too much for you to handle Reg
Some real statistics for you at real positions why Detroit will most likely beat Michigan:
1. Joel Matthews – sat out 2011 for academic reasons, but is back in 2012. Scored 37 goals in 2010 as a freshman, leading all freshman in NCAA D1. His 2.47 Gpg was better than a few names you may have heard of that year including all americans named Bitter, Crotty, Pannell, and Stanwick.
2. Shayne Adams – in 2011 he had 35 goals leading all freshman in NCAA D1. He had more goals per game than all americans named Stanwick, Bitter, Keogh and Gulasso.
3. Jordan Houtby – LSM who was second in the country behind all everything LSM Karalunas from Vilanova in caused turnovers. His caused turnover numbers were better than all americans Brian Farrell (Maryland), Joel White (Syracuse) and CJ Costabile (Duke). His 6.06 ground balls per game were better than all those listed above and was also better than Karalunas.
4. AJ Levell – Junior goalie who was second team all MAAC last year behind a senior. His 11.19 saves per game was 13th in D1.
Some more numbers for you:
1
That’s the number of players from last year’s MAAC runner up team that graduated.
11.63
The number of caused turnovers per game by Detroit last year. Better than Cuse. Better than Virginia. Better than Maryland. In fact better than every team in D1.
I’ll be honest, my boss would be pissed if he knew how long I spent researching this online over the past few days.
i agree here – 1 win – and it may be the scrimmage with Dennison – though i actually expect Dennison to take them.
I’ll give it a shot. I’d have to do a little research to go into detail, but here are my thoughts.
Mercer: Only win last year was a relatively close one to Carthage (#104 in D3 on Laxpower). They should beat Mercer. Heck, the MCLA team should have beaten Mercer last year.
Other possible wins:
Bellarmine, Air Force, Jacksonville, Detroit, Mt St. Mary’s, Rutgers.
No chance:
Penn State, Denver, Loyola, Harvard, Delaware, Ohio State (pains me to say), North Carolina
If they get a couple of those possibles, that’s a good first season. If they get three of them, that’s a great first season.
Pingback: Michigan Coaching Clinic No. 1: Mini-recap | Great Lax State
My breakdown:
Detroit: The Titans have everyone back from a 6-10 season last year including two big time Canadian goal scores and a defense that lead the country in caused turnovers. Michigan has struggled with pressure defenses this fall. Detroit by 5.
Penn State: A tough team with possibly one of the best young coaches in the country. They spent a ton of money on that coach, they aren’t going to stand for losing to a first year team. PSU by 12.
Denver: Final 4 team from last year. There is just too much fire power there. DU by 15
Air Force: Depends on acclamation to the altitude, and who Air Force plays before. Toss up.
Jacksonville: They lost a coach and have a new system, but coach Van Arsdale is a well respected coach. I’ll give them a toss up, with J’ville taking the edge because of the heat in Florida. It’s brutal down there. JU by 2 in a fourth quarter comeback.
Mercer: I saw Mercer last year against Detroit and it was bad. Michigan by 11.
Loyola: a telented team that always plays tough. Loyola by 7.
Bellarmine: New coach, new look. An upstate coach with Canadian players. Not sure how they will mesh with the new system, but they have a lot of talent and depth. BU by 1.
Mount: The mount lost just about everyone including an amazing goalie. They are down this year. Mount succumbs to the overwhelming atmosphere of the Big House. Michigan by 3.
Harvard: Another top team. Tough scheduling at this point of the season. Haaaaavard by 10.
Delaware: And again, another top 10-15 team. Delaware is MUCH bigger than Big Blue with more experience. Delaware by 12.
Ohio State: grrrr… The buckeyes are used to playing in front of big crowds, but hostile big crowds? Michigan comes fired up, but can’t hold on and OSU runs away in the 4th to win by 7.
Rutgers: A very solid new and young coach that has a history of putting tiny Siena in the NCAA tourney. Brecht has them firing on all cylanders by this point in the season. Rutgers by 6.
As your predictions really point out, there’s a key stretch from Air Force to Mercer. The first two games are probably about tossups, but if Michigan can come away with two wins there, they can get some momentum rolling.
That probably wouldn’t translate into a whole lot more wins over the back half of the schedule, but at least more confident play, and the possibility to pull an upset or two.
I think the michigan club team 2 or 3 or 4 years ago would beat this D1 team now.
That’s an interesting angle. Hadn’t thought of that. I agree that those teams were more talented. But by the time this season rolls around I bet this team is a lot better just because the support and expectations are probably way better and way higher. Then again, if UM four years ago got this kind of support who knows how much better they could have been.
I disagree entirely, the only element that would instantly make this team much better is a proven leader in Harry Freid. Just that one player would instantly improve their defense and allow for the younger players to see what it takes to be an All-Decade player and All-American. Moreover, having a proven FOGO or just good guy at the X is what Michigan needs again, and hopefully they can get that done at this level to get those much needed possessions.
So the only element is Harry Freid.
BUT, there is also the element of a faceoff guy?
So Freid is not the only element then.
How about goalie? They had two seniors last year. This year they have a freshman and not a single guy who has seen time even at the club level. How about LSM and D? They lost Asperheim. At D they used to have guys like Elyachar and Morales (d mid). The offense isn’t nearly as deep and does it have any lefties in key roles any more?
I think those teams back then were more talented and deeper. It’s a very good point.
BUT, give them a couple of years of recruiting and all that will change.
They do have a couple lefties. Starting attack Will Meter is a lefty. He played the left wing on the man-up. There was also a lefty starting middie I spotted at the providence scrimmage. I can’t remember who, it may have been Steenland?
Josh,
Keep the Excedrin. Start w/ this.
http://www.amazon.com/Better-Sentence-Writing-Minutes-English/dp/1564142035/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1319078460&sr=8-2
I’m trying to follow your logic but you’re so far all over the road I’m not sure.
Just so we’re clear, you’re predicting wins based on reasons like:
1) Conditioning as a club team vs other club teams (must be the Barwis Factor).
2) A 4th year varsity team (bringing back all starters and backups while adding back in their 2010 MVP) will be too emotional compared to the team playing in their first ever varsity game.
3) A D3 team’s split squad fall ball scrimmages against an MCLA team that Michigan played in 2011.
4) That they have a 3rd meeting against a team that beat Michigan 18-11 in a scrimmage in Feb 2011. Even though that Bellarmine team was still mourning the death of their coach in the fall and had a coordinator calling the shots they still won big. So now w/ coaching stability and returning their top 7 scorers , top 2 FOGO’s, top 2 LSM’s, their goalie and 4 long sticks with starting experience; Michigan is going to beat them based on being familiar with them?
OK. Sure.
Reg,
Best post so far on GLS.
Josh,
What’s your background that you know all of these coaches you say you know?
Josh, I love your enthusiasm, but you’re very misguided.
MSM has won their conference title two years in a row, and although they lost T.C. and Ben Trapp they have great replacements (including MI native Marsaleese).
Detroit is going on their fourth year while returning their 2010 MVP and from what I can tell, one of the best LSMs in the nation. I see them running away with the ultra-competitve MAAC, because Marist, Jacksonville, and Siena all have new coaches and UDM plays them all at home; where they have been better. Of course, they’ll need improved face-off play and better clearing efficiency.
The best chances for wins for Michigan 2012 in my opinion are:
Mercer- new program with not a lot of talent. but after watching mercer play Detroit last year, and Michigan play Providence this fall, Mercer is a much much faster team. Michigan by 3
Bellarmine- new coach of a team that can’t quite seem to break to the next level. However, their goalie is incredible. Bellarmine should squeak by with a 1 goal win.
Air force- I’m sure MI native Tommy McKee won’t like this, but at this point, Michigan will be eager for a win and will play their hearts out. I also believe detroit played them close in their first year. Toss up.
And for the record, Carthage had their best offensive players in their scrimage vs. Detroit. I have a lot of interest in Carthage (hopefully some of my players end up there) and #9 Keegan Bowman played the whole game.
But I will say, WOW! what a schedule. Hoping to bring my team to one of the games at the bighouse
Michigan will have a big-time schedule every year if they want it. The Michigan name carries a lot of weight.
I’m sorry but if anyone thinks that Michigan will beat any team on this list besides Mercer, you need to study. I saw the scrimmage vs. Providence and it was BRUTAL on both sides. Clearing, game speed, and middies all need serious work. The only positive thing about Michigan right now is there goalie and maybe an attackman. There game speed is still in the MCLA.
Also, Why is everyone hating on the Mount?? They won their division with teams like Robert Morris and Bryant in it.
Once again sorry everybody , but Michigan will not be a real U of M program until at least 3-4 years (meaning wins/studs/championships) . And when that does finally happen, watch out. But, for now come to the realization that they aren’t very good yet.
And they will have a 1-13 record unless Air Force forgets to wake up for the game.
Pingback: Lax Links 11-7-11 | Great Lax State
Michigan’s woman’s coach is doing it right by waiting until the 2014 season to get ready. That being said, Michigan will have to flush out all current players and make room for some big name recruits that are ready to play at a Di level. As Willy notes, the game speed is in super over drive when comparing decent Di to Club and that just makes an enormous difference when you are on the field; as an attackman getting stripped, and especially as a defenseman watching and hearing the opposing offense spelling it out as the attackman behind feeds a middie coming down the lane and shouts out “one more” to that middie who finds the attackman on the crease for an easy layup, all day long. Michigan would have a tough time with the top Diii schools (Stevenson, Salisbury, Cortland, Tufts, etc.)at this point. I am not busting on Michigan, i am thrilled for the sport that they are making this step, but my perspective is that it’s going to be ugly for a couple of years. Good news is that Ohio has some great youth programs in the Columbus area which will benefit both the Buckeyes and Big Blue, plus there are a lot of NY/NJ/CT/PA kids that would love to play at Michigan.
I don’t think JP had a choice. They are doing it fast because of their donors and because the club team already had a D1 infrastructure in place, if not a lot of D1 talent. They are tearing it up in recruiting, as expected. In a few years this stuff will all just be an anecdote, as in…”remember when these guys weren’t any good their first couple of years?”
I do think this team could have 2 or 3 wins in them this year, but I also think they have a zero win year in them potentially. Like you, I’m just excited it’s happening. I’ll put up with a couple of really bad years knowing that a great team is probably on its way.
Yep, I think the coaching staff realized there was no reason to hold back from jumping into the fire this season. They have the upperclassman leadership in place that they won’t have (at least not as much) next year, and guys who are used to having success on the field.
There was really no advantage to sitting out a year and not getting that competition, because the team will be in the same place at the beginning of 2013 either way, just with a bit of experience under their belt from the 2012 season.
Pingback: Best of 2011 | Great Lax State
This is a chicken-shit schedule. 3 games, all certain losses, against decent teams. Let’s see Hopkins, cuse, terps, duke, Irish, etc before even discussing this as a real program
I… I can’t tell if you’re serious.
For one thing, this is a first-year program. Are you expecting them to play the toughest schedule in the country? Apparently so. Not sure what you mean by “real program.” I don’t think anyone is under the impression that this is going to be an excellent squad in the first couple years.
They have to play the teams in the ECAC that could rearrange their schedules to fit them. That means Denver (which, unlike Hopkins or Syracuse, made it to the Final Four last year), Ohio State, Bellarmine, Air Force, and Loyola has to be on the schedule (Farifield and Hobart couldn’t fit them in).
This team was announce as a varsity squad in May. They tried to schedule Hopkins and Cuse, but neither could change their schedules for 2012 on such late notice. Both teams will be on the docket next year.
The strength of schedule, based on last year’s LaxPower rankings (which unfortunately are all we have to go on at this point) puts them solidly middle-of-the-pack. Sure, that’s not ACC-quality, but thanks to the glory of RPI inflation, it’s not possible for anybody outside of the ACC to have that power, so whatever.
I honestly can’t tell if you’re joking or just really, really not bright.
Obvious troll is obvious.
Do you where in Jacksonville, FL is the Michigan – Mercer game being played and how do we get tickets for the same?
Thanks!
DB Milne Field at Jacksonville University (North University Dr. east of the Matthews Bridge from downtown). You should be able to buy tickets at the gate.
Now that the season is over, I just wanted to make sure I pointed out how wrong Josh was in his prediction.
A rough year for Michigan, but I give them credit. I never once saw them give up in a game. They hung in there and kept fighting every game.
Looking over the predictions, AndyD and michiganlaxer seemed to be the closest. People were generally too pessimistic with regard to blowouts, and too optimistic on air force and msm.
People were also off on UDM’s season in general, but injuries to almost all their top players really kept us from seeing what could have been. I think we saw some flashes of their potential this year, so hopefully they are healthy enough to show it next year.