Preview: Detroit at Michigan

It’s the biggest game of the year on the GLS calendar, at the very least, so I’d better get some preview material up, even if I haven’t delved into the statistical recaps of the teams’ respective first games, yeah?

Detroit @ Michigan

Brad Lott (Michigan) and Damien Hicks (Detroit) take the opening faceoff in 2014.

Feb. 14, 2015. 7 p.m. EST
Oosterbaan Fieldhouse
Live stats.
@GreatLaxState.
@UmichLacrosse, @UofMLaxManagers.
@DetroitTitans
Michigan preview. .pdf notes.
Detroit preview. .pdf notes.

Tempo-Free Profile

The TempoFreeLax.com numbers displayed here are last year’s,and with Detroit making a coaching change and U-M continuing to build a D-1 roster, they’re probably only limited in their representation of the teams

Interactive Whiteboards by PolyVision

Detroit Offense v. Michigan Defense

The Titans lost Alex Maini, but the other two centerpieces of the offense last year return in attack Shayne Adams and midfielder Mike Birney. Their respective deficiencies (Maini’s was primarily a whole lot of turnovers, some of it out of his control as the primary ball-carrier for the team) have been health for Adams, along with occasionally relying on his teammates to set him up, and for Birney, a booming shot that found the net – or even was on-cage – only on rare occasions last year. Early in the year, Adams should be as healthy as he is all season, and with one game of evidence, half of Birney’s shots have been on cage, a good start.

The Titans haven’t been a particularly assist-heavy offense in recent years – last year saw an improvement there – but six of the nine UDM goals against Ohio State last weekend (what is supposed to be a pretty good Buckeye D, at that) came off a helper, despite the loss of Maini and fellow attack Tom Masterson, who accounted for more than half of last year’s assists themselves.

The output was also more balanced, with the six assists coming from six different players, each of whom also scored a goal (Sean Birney bucketed a pair to become the only multi-goal scorer this year for UDM).

From Michigan’s perspective, Gerald Logan started out shaky in his first game in nearly two years (he redshirted last year with injury), but rounded into typical form over the course of the game. The defense in front of him was far more aggressive when it came to causing turnovers – something U-M should be able to with the first-ever primary goalie older than true freshman (Emil Weiss for Team One, Logan two years ago, and Robbie Zonino last spring).

Detroit has been plagued by turnovers over the years, though with one game of evidence, maybe they’re starting to turn something of a mini-corner there. If they’re committing 14 in 30 possessions against Ohio State (albeit nine unforced by the Bucks), they’ll probably be quite a bit better against the Monmouths of the world, and finally approach average rather than bad. Still, against a Michigan defense that looks prepared to force turnovers, the task will be a bit different.

Michigan Offense v. Detroit Defense

Michigan started slowly against Marquette – thanks in part to hitting about a half-dozen pipes in the first quarter – but once they dialed in their sticks, it was something of an offensive explosion, especially compared to recent years.

After about a year of hearing how special midfielder Mikie Schlosser is going to be, we got a major glimpse of it. He was a playmaker from the midfield, but more importantly a scorer, with four goals and an assist. Senior David McCormack was pouring in goals as well. The biggest change may have been the role of Ian King. Again, just one-game sample size, but he had more assists in the second half (2) than he had all season last year. He’ll remain primarily a finisher over the course of the year, but clearly his game has diversified.

For Detroit, the story is similar to Michigan: it starts with the goalie. As good as Logan was in his first year on campus, sophomore Jason Weber is probably the best in the nation, for my dollar. He faced more rubber than just about anyone last year, yet still managed to lead the nation in save percentage. The unwritten season preview post about how he was snubbed by IL‘s faceoff special because he doesn’t play for a power team was going to be a spectacular one, indeed.

In front of him, Detroit has vacillated between wanting to be a heavy-pressure defense and a more passive, “protect the keeper” style over the years. With a talented netminder like Weber, they can probably go with the pressure-happy style, and the Ohio State game – 12 caused turnovers in 43 possessions – indicates that’s likely the case.

Special Teams

Both teams have been up-and-down on faceoffs over the years, thanks to inconsistency out of the specialists, but perhaps more importantly wing play. There have been enough times that I’ve seen the FOGO win the clamp, but the LSM or short-stick middie unable to corral a contested ground ball – especially for the Titans. For the specialists themselves, I’ll take Michigan’s Brad Lott over Detroit’s variety of players used (he won 22 of 30 against basically the entire catalog of UDM options last year), but the wing play will be key, as well.

Detroit rode pretty heavily against Ohio State, and against what is generally considered a less-skilled Michigan team, I would expect more of that. U-M does have some one-man clear options developing (Schlosser and SSDM Thomas Orr have the right type of speed and vision), but the stick skills on over passes out of defensemen, etc., may still need fine-tuning. They were 15/16 against a Bellarmine team that has traditionally had a good ride.

For Michigan, there was actually pretty significant use of a 10-man against Bellarmine. After the game, head coach John Paul mentioned that it was a matchup they felt they could exploit on film, so you never know if it’ll be consistently used in other games, or if Detroit will have some of the same weaknesses. It’ll still be one tool in the box if necessary. Detroit’s clear was strong against Ohio State, and the Buckeyes have been really strong on the ride in recent years, so that’s a big positive.

Each team’s single game of evidence isn’t enough to know how they’ll be over the course of the season, but both seem to have made improvements over last year in both phases of the transition game. It might be strength-on-strength heading in both directions, and who breaks first could be the story of the possession game.

Detroit’s man-up was the best in the country last year, but they didn’t have a single EMO opportunity against Ohio State. They were back to their traditional “many penalties committed” selves – a side effect of a pressuring style – but held Ohio State to one conversion on five man-down chances. Michigan committed just a couple penalties against Bellarmine, so Detroit will only have limited opportunities to deploy one of its best weapons. They’ll have to make their first EMO opportunities of the year count. Michigan was man-up a couple times against Bellarmine, converting one opportunity. Like with everything else, too early to tell.

The Big Picture

I’ll be first to admit that this game is typically bigger for me than it actually is in the grand scheme of things. There are still bragging rights on the line though, and this has been a physical, rough (sometimes too nasty) contest over the years.

For either team, starting the year off 2-0 will feel radically different than 1-1. Detroit already has a big win under its belt, with Ohio State a more impressive victim than Bellarmine. The Titans are also more likely to make the NCAA Tournament by winning their conference (they’re a the very least a top-half MAAC team, whereas Michigan is bottom-of-the-B1G in expectations), so the non-conference is more about developing for that portion of the schedule. For Michigan, it’s a chance to build up wins and have a strong season despite the inevitable head-bashings-in from Hopkins and Maryland.

For the first time since the first edition of this game, I get the feeling that it means more in the overall picture for Michigan than Detroit. The Titans have larger realistic goals in the grand scheme (for the 2015 season, at least) than the Wolverines, and this game doesn’t impact them. For Michigan, the individual wins are the goal, so no individual opportunity can be overlooked.

Predictions

This is always one of the tougher games to predict (oddly, given that they’re the two most familiar teams).

• The offenses both have their share of struggles. I think Detroit’s defense will be really good this year, especially because of Weber’s presence between the pipes. Michigan’s might not be quite as advanced, but I also think the UDM struggles over the years with turnovers will pop back up at times this year.
• Detroit will go yet another game without an EMO goal. That’s partially because Michigan plays a clean style (though the Detroit game can be a little more rough), and partially because the Detroit man-up will take a little while to round into form. If they get just a couple opportunities in this one, they’ll have to continue feeling things out.
• Michigan will win the faceoff battle (and handily), and the transition game will be relatively close. The Wolverines should have more opportunities to score. Whether or not they can use their talent offensive piece to get the ball past Weber in those opportunities will determine the outcome of the game.

Last year’s contest between these two teams was one of the most exciting of the season. Detroit almost won it without Weber. The Titans may have lost more talent from last year’s team than did Michigan, but the difference between Weber and Detroit’s other goalies was greater than the difference between Logan and Zonino for Michigan last year. That’s enough to make for a close Titan win. Detroit emerges victorious, 13-11.