Michigan gets a chance to back up one of its wins from last year. It would be the second opponent over whom the Wolverines have more than one win (Mercer is the other).
Bellarmine
Classic stick design
Feb. 21, 2015. 1 p.m. EST
Oosterbaan Fieldhouse
Live stats. Audio.
@UMichLacrosse. @UofMLaxManagers.
Michigan preview. .pdf notes.
Notre Dame preview.
Tempo-Free Profile
The TempoFreeLax.com numbers displayed here are last year’s, because Notre Dame has played even fewer games than Michigan. Their lone contest thus far was a win last week against Georgetown. With just one (close) win against a team for whom that was also the only game by nature puts the Irish at the middle of the Tempo-Free table. They won’t be there for long.
| Notre Dame 2014 | |
|---|---|
| Pace | 65.50 (26) |
| Poss% | 50.30 (35) |
| Off. Eff. | 37.50 (9) |
| Def. Eff. | 26.24 (5) |
| Pyth% | 75.83 (6) |
Notre Dame played at a reasonably quick tempo for a power team – who tend to play slowly unless they’re dominant in the possession game or really productive on offense. The Irish were very much not the former, and were in fact near the middle of the nation when it comes to possessing the rock.
What they were is elite on both settled ends of the field. The Irish have been known for strong defense, and last year was no exception. They had a top-five unit on that side of the ball.
Offensively, they’ve been a bit more pedestrian over the years, and that’s where they took some nice steps in 2014 – with reason to believe they’ll continue this season. More about that once you get through the next heading…
Offense
Matt Kavanaugh and Sergio Perkivoc (product of Brother Rice and unfortunate possessor of one of the worst nicknames in sports, “Motor City Hitman”) are a couple of the country’s top players at their respective positions. Kavanaugh is a jitterbug attackman who had 42 goals and 33 assists last year, capable of doing it all. Perkovic is an outside-bombing midfielder who’s added some serious versatility – particularly with his off-hand – in a couple years with the Irish. He had 28 goals and five assists last year, and already boasts three goals and two assists in 2015.
That’s not where Notre Dame’s offense begins and ends, however. Attackman Conor Doyle was the second-leading scorer behind Kavanaugh last year, and already has a goal and two assists this season. Fifth-year midfielder Jim Marlatt had 22 points, with a slight bias toward scoring, rather than assisting.
Midfielders Nick Ossello (also a faceoff specialist) and Jack Near also return, along with attack Eddy Lubowicki. That’s every double-digit point-scorer from last year except for attackman John Scioscia, who, to be fair, was the team’s second-leading scorer. This is a talented, deep offensive group, and one that returns almost entirely intact from last year.
Notre Dame should have a heck of an offense this year.
Defense
On the other hand, giving up 12 goals on 38 possessions (.316) to Georgetown (proud owners of the sixth-worst offense in the country last year) is not a super-great sign about the Irish. The offense is going to have to put up big numbers, because the defense should take a step back.
Stephen O’Hara departs after a first-team All-America performance last year, and fellow starter Brian Buglione has also graduated. That’s a big hit. Garrett Epple is a sophomore who started seven games last year, and junior Matt Landis is expected to be one of the best poles in the country (preseason third-team All-American according to IL). However, they haven’t been able to make the keeper feel comfortable just yet.
That’s led to some really bad numbers for the goalies, even though the two who played against Georgetown are the same platoon that was available to the Irish last year. Conor Kelly was the more often used (and better, with a .505 save percentage) keeper last year, but was chased against the Hoyas after saving just five of 13 shots faced. Shane Doss was better more because of less rubber faced than anything else, saving three of seven shots against.
If Michigan can exploit the personnel turnover in the close defense to find some openings inside – and they have the talent to do that with Ian King and David McCormack, and the midfielders to stretch the field a bit with Mikie Schlosser and David Joseph – these goalies aren’t going to bail out their defense often.
Special Teams
If Michigan is to get a win, it will have to come through limiting Notre Dame’s opportunities to score – because if they get those chances, they will turn them into goals. Fortunately, excellent faceoff specialist Liam O’Conno has graduated, meaning the Irish don’t have a surefire dominator. Nick Ossello was last year’s primary backup, but struggled in a big way against Georgetown (and was a sub-.500 guy last year anyway). Sophomore P.J. Finley entered and did very well. Georgetown is trotting out a new specialist this year, so it’s undetermined just how strong the competition was for that duo.
Notre Dame was about average in clears last year, and through one game, is middle-of-the-pack again this year. Given that Georgetown has been a heavy-ride team (but one less talented than many of the ACC teams Notre Dame faces during the regular season), I would guess they’ll be about average this year.
Notre Dame has been a great riding team, and it looks like, through one game, they intend to keep that up. They rode the Hoyas into fails on a quarter of their attempts. Michigan seems to have the talent to improve its clearing, so this will be a strong test.
Notre Dame was the beneficiary of many more man-up opportunities than opponents last year, but Michigan has been a clean team through three years (and two games) as well. The Irish were absolutely ruthless in converting on EMO – which I guess is expected with their level of offensive talent – so a key for Michigan will be to not put itself into man-down situations.
Big Picture
The Wolverines were expected to win their first two games, sure, but the manner in which they did so certainly indicates they’re making more progress this season than they did over the first three years of the program (perhaps combined). If they were to get an upset over Notre Dame, it would be a strong indication that they’re easily a top-20 team this year, and could contend to make not only the Big Ten conference tournament, but also challenge for an NCAA bid.
Of course, that win will be a tall task, to say the very least. The Irish are really good at intercollegiate lacrosse, and Michigan isn’t there yet. U-M wants to make its stamp on the lacrosse world, and this is a chance to do that. With a tough schedule, there will be others, as well. A big non-conference pelt (most of the remaining tough games come in Big Ten play) would be huge.
Preview from Notre Dame blog One Foot Down.
Predictions
This is one heck of a game early in the season, as long as Michigan is able to back up its performance from the first two games…
- The biggest key in the game for Michigan, as noted above, will be to win the possession battle. They have to clear better than most teams do against the Irish. Riding their way into a turnover or two would be nice. But the biggest task is to win on faceoffs. Brad Lott has been streaky already this season, and he can’t let one loss on a draw snowball in to four or five more in a row. The wing players for Michigan will be challenged – Notre Dame has great ball skills at LSM and in the midfielder – and they have just as important a job as Lott.
- The reason possession is so important? Notre Dame gon’ score. I don’t see Michigan – even if Gerald Logan has a great game, which he must for U-M to have a chance – holding the Irish below .350 offensive efficiency. There’s just too much offensive talent in South Bend, and not yet quite enough in Ann Arbor, to say “oh, this elite offense will be slowed down.”
- On the other end, I think Michigan has a chance to score some goals of its own, but living up to the Irish’s offensive efficiency is a pipe dream (hence the important of the possession game). The Notre Dame goalies are mediocre at best, and finding the windows to shoot on them should see a lot of rubber thrown their way.
- Ian King’s diversified offensive game, along with a weakened Notre Dame defensive unit, should see him have opportunities to both score and feed. Michigan has initiated through both attack and midfield (primarily Mikie Schlosser) this year, and having the chance to do either is a key to beating an inexperienced defensive front.
The more I look at this game, the less I think it’s going to be an Irish blowout. The ND offense is nothing short of elite – it could challenge for one of the best in the nation this year – but everything else on the team seems varying degrees of “only pretty good” down to “a serious question mark thus far.” Some of those questions marks, particularly goaltending and faceoffs, are rife for exploitation by Michigan. U-M is still a year away from really having expectations to win this one, but they’ll be close enough that it’s not out of the question. Notre Dame takes it, 14-11.
Share your predictions, discussion, etc. in the comments.