Michigan has the talent to run with a team like Hopkins (which, if you look at the record, might not be saying much, but that’s one of the country’s most talented squads, at the very least), but not the depth. They also have a few key failings – that have recurred all year – that prevent them from reaching their potential.
Young program, growing program, but this really felt like the year they might take that big step forward(they’ve taken some smaller ones), and yet they’re probably one year off.
Tempo Free
From the official box score, a look at the tempo-free stats:
| Johns Hopkins 2015 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan | Johns Hopkins | ||
| Faceoff Wins | 8 | Faceoff Wins | 19 |
| Clearing | 18-20 | Clearing | 15-18 |
| Possessions | 31 | Possessions | 39 |
| Goals | 9 | Goals | 16 |
| Offensive Efficiency | .290 | Offensive Efficiency | .410 |
Hopkins basically dominated the possession game thanks to a strong performance on faceoffs. Michigan managed to keep things under control by clearing well and forcing a handful of Hopkins failed clears on the ride.
Still, the efficiency marks tell the bigger story: Hopkins was the better team. As to whether some of that comes because Michigan was worn down by always being on defense is another story.
Notes
So at this point in the season (second- or third-to-last game, I’m really going out on a limb here), I’m willing to say Michigan stinks at faceoffs. Yes, they’ve gone up against some of the best specialists in the country, but it takes more than that to see the levels of possession deficit they’re experiencing. Brad Lott went 1/5, Mike McDonnell 4/12 (though he did show some signs at times), and Chase Brown 3/10. Plenty of those were ground balls that UM just got out-competed for, as well.
As mentioned above, Hopkins really seemed to wear down Michigan early in the game. They didn’t build a big lead (3-3 tie after the first quarter and 8-5 at the half), but the Wolverines’ D was run ragged to a degree, and that allowed the Blue Jays to play with confidence – if not too much more output – after the break. They knew they could dominate the ball and score if it came to that, so they managed to slow things down a bit while Michigan unsuccessfully struggled to play catch-up.
This was a bit of a reverse of the standard Gerald Logan experience (in part because of the above-mentioned weardown factor), wherein he started the game very well – kept his team right in it through the first, in fact – but faded later in the contest. He saw a lot of rubber – 27 shots on goal, 11 of which he saved – and after the first quarter, didn’t do much to save his team’s bacon.
Longpole Stefan Bergman had an outstanding four caused turnovers and four ground balls on the game, while Mack Gembis had one and four in those categories, respectively. When the opposition puts up 16 goals on 39 possessions, you’re looking for any sort of silver lining, I guess.
Hopkins hasn’t been a great defensive team this year, but Michigan did have a nice output in scoring, especially given that they were out of the contest pretty early and you often see a team wing ineffective shots at the keeper just to feel again, man in that situation. If you excise the fourth quarter (when both of the Wolverines’ failed clears took place, along with just one goal), Michigan scored eight goals on 20 possessions. Against a team with Hopkins’ talent (if not results), you can see where they’re just a player or two away from a breakthrough.
David Joseph (2G), David McCormack and Mikie Schlosser (1G, 1A each) were your only multi-point scorers. Only three of Michigan’s nine goals were assisted (the other assist went to Ian King, who I believe was held goalless for the first time he’s been healthy enough to play in an entire game).
Hopkins is having some goalie issues this year, but switched goalies in the first to oft-maligned Drew Schneider, who you could make an argument helped win the game. Starter Will Ryan saved zero of three shots faced, while Schneider made 13 saves and allowed just five goals in just over three quarters of action.
The Brothers Stanwick were standouts, with three goals and an assist (Wells) and a goal and two assists (Shack). Holden Cattoni and John Crowley had two goals and an assist apiece.
Elsewhere
Boxscore. U-M recap. Re-watch the whole darn thing. Hopkins recap.
Up Next
U-M’s final regular-season game has huge implications for both teams. The winner between Michigan and Penn State will see its season continue with a berth into the Big Ten Tournament, where Maryland (top seed), Ohio State, and now Hopkins (Nos. 2 and 3, depending on results this weekend) have already secured bids.
Penn State has the same league record as Michigan: 1-3, with the lone victory over Rutgers, so the head-to-head game will vault one to 2-3 and the conference tourney and the other to the end of its season.
The game is a Sunday night game at home for the Maize and Blue, and should feature one of the best atmospheres – especially given the stakes – of the year.
I’m not sure if we were watching the same game. I thought Michigan out-competed Hopkins on ground balls, which the stats kind of show. They were only one behind in that stat despite getting crushed on faceoffs, which is a ground ball every time. Most of the faceoff losses were Kennedy winning to himself, not ground ball battles. I also thought Schneider, who has definitely struggled this year in cage, played his best game of the year by far. Bad timing for Michigan. They had some great shots he saved. Yes, they threw a couple right at him, but he had to come up big a few times, and he did. Meanwhile, Logan had a well below average game by his standards. He let in at least 2 or 3 outside shots he should have saved.
I’d love to see the defense playing better. They give up a lot of inside stuff. But Hopkins scored 3 man-up goals (the officiating was iffy at best) and 3 or 4 in transition. They have one of the best man-up units in the country.
They did a great job keeping it close, only down 4 going into the fourth, despite getting destroyed at faceoffs and taking too many penalties. It wasn’t until the fourth when it opened up on them, which was also the first time they failed a clear not coincidentally.
It’s obvious to me (and you and everyone else I assume) that the key to this team being able to compete against good teams is faceoffs. They lost 7 of 8 in the second quarter, which is when Hopkins went up by 3. They need the ball to have a chance. They aren’t getting the ball enough. That doesn’t allow a pretty good offense to do their thing, and it puts way too much pressure on a below average defense. I’m skeptical that next year is going to be their year either unless they have a faceoff recruit I don’t know about or they get a transfer. Tim – is there someone coming next year that isn’t listed anywhere who is going to solve this issue?
Nobody will argue that Michigan has Syracuse talent on offense or defense except for goalie. Syracuse, with all that talent, couldn’t win consistently without winning faceoffs. It’s that big. They need someone there who can get them to at least 50% consistently.
I specifically meant losing GBs on faceoffs, where Kennedy won a few clean, but a fair number of them kicked around (with some almost-GBs mixed in) before it seemed like Hopkins would inevitably come out with it.
Michigan has actually been an outstanding run-of-play GB team since the beginning of their second season, especially when you take into account that they don’t have the talent and depth of a lot of the teams they’re facing.
Yeah, I’ve come to the same conclusion. This team is talented and can compete, but is still a few pieces away from really being able to take one of these games. Last year they came close against Cornell, and not coincidentally, Brad Lott had a great day on faceoffs that game. I definitely think the rule changes have hurt him, and I suspect the guys behind him as well. Knowing the up tempo style I think JP was going for, it’s possible the few guys they have are all pinch n pop guys.
I still feel like I’m seeing progress though. Down 11-8 late in the 3rd is still a competitive game. And when I’m actually disappointed the team didn’t beat Hopkins or OSU, that says something compared to what I was thinking a couple years ago.
They do have a FoGo coming in. Brent Noseworthy, from Avon Old Farms according to laxpower. But he’ll still be a freshman, who knows how he will do. The more surefire route is a transfer. It feels like a lot of the really good teams all pick up transfers at the X. Syracuse, OSU, Duke (recently), Denver is always getting transfers, etc. Michigan needs to get in on that. Marquette has picked up some pretty good transfers as well and we’re seeing how well that is working.
I saw the Hopkins game on t.v., one of 5 Hopkins games I’ve watched this year. I thought UM had the talent to hang with Hopkins this year, but I agree that the possession factor is killing UM. I’ve heard the song and dance about the rule change for face offs hurting Michigan, but that’s a hollow excuse. Every team has to deal with the same rule change, yet UM has really regressed on face offs. When UM is on defense for 2/3 of the game, sooner or later the D breaks down. The D is much better than last year, but that only means it’s an average Division 1 defense, and it still has a tendency to over commit at times. So when it’s having to defend for 4 or 5 straight possessions, it will give up a goal or two or three. The same factor hurts Logan. I think he’s one of the 3 or 4 best goalies in college lax, but when he’s constantly facing a barrage of possessions, he’s bound to give up some goals that he might have otherwise stopped. UM is still a young team, and I think they are better than last year, but solving the possession problem is needed to take the next step.
Don’t read the faceoff rule change as an excuse, because people (at least I) don’t intend for it to come off that way. The reason Michigan is getting beaten up on faceoffs is because its specialists aren’t as god as other people’s. Pre-rule change, that difference was minimized. Now it’s not.
I didn’t mean you, but the commentators on TV for the Hopkins game and the Ohio game mentioned this excuse, and I heard it in the crowd at the Maryland game. The way I see it, our FOGOs aren’t quick or nimble, but I still scratch my head as to why they’re getting dominated every time UM plays a team that isn’t bad. But, enough complaining for now. If UM beats Penn State, I’ll be pleased with the season (as well as playing hooky from work to attend the first round games of the BIG tourney at Maryland).