Detroit Preview: Bellarmine

Heavily re-purposing the previous Bellarmine preview. Michigan took on the Knights a couple weeks back. Detroit does this afternoon. Hopefully the result – a convincing win – will be the same.

Bellarmine

Fear the stylized Knights!

March 1, 2015. 3:30 p.m. EST
Louisville, Ky.
Live stats. Live video.
Detroit Preview. .pdf notes.
Bellarmine Preview.

Tempo-Free Profile

The TempoFreeLax.com numbers displayed here are last year’s, though this is probably the last time I’ll have to do that. The statistical library is growing robust enough (with many schools through about a third of their regular-season schedule (in February (SPRING SPORT)) we’ll clean up the data and have it fully presentable in short order), and after Tuesday’s Michigan-Jacksonville game, it’ll be full-go on 2015 stats..

Bellarmine was not a fast team last year, nor did the Knights do a good job controlling the ball. that means not a whole lot of offensive possessions…

And they didn’t do a whole lot with those, either. Offensive efficiency was their worst aspect last season. They had solid games last year, but many of them against very poor defenses.

Fortunately, given that many of the (few) possessions in their games came in the sticks of the opposition, they had a very good defense. They held eight of 12 opponents to single digits, though thanks to that anemic offense, they still lost one such game and all four when the opposition cracked 10.

Offense

From the last time out:

Although Bellarmine was picked to win the conference in the inaugural year of the Southern, they are clearly not expected to do it with offense. Onetime Michigan attack commit, sophomore Austin Shanks is their only pre-season all-conference player on that side of the ball (oddly listed at midfielder, a position he is not expected to play for the Knights this year).

Shanks was the No. 3 scorer for the team last year, with fellow freshman Tucker Ciessau one of those beating him out. Now sophomores, they should be the deadly duo. Both were much more finishers than feeders last year, with a 4:1-ish ratio between goals and assists for each.

The Nos. 2 and 4 leading scorers both departed, leaving senior midfielder Ryan Scinta as the only other returning double-digit point scorer. The offense was very concentrated among five guys, with the attackmen finishing and the midfielders feeding. Scinta will have to have linemates step up, and the attackmen may need to be a little more versatile.

Jack Perkins, a sophomore A/M, has stepped up to be the clear second-leading scorer. Ciessau and Scinta aren’t far behind, but it’s clear that Shanks is the straw that stirs the drink here.

Defense

Again, from the earlier Bellarmine preview:

Bellarmine boasts two defensive players on the preseason all-conference list in close defender Colin Hart and LSM Bobby Schmitt (the latter of whom could be the best player in the conference this side of High Point keeper Austin Giesler, in personal e-pinion). Schmitt is also a threat offensively, with seven assists and 16 shots – though no goals – last year.

…

Top SSDM Reid Wesley is back, and another major contributor (when healthy last year, at least) Ben Plisco is just a junior, so he could take another step forward. Two losses and returning a conference player of the year candidate on that side of the ball probably isn’t bad.

Schmitt has been limited by injury, and hasn’t recorded a stat yet this year. The only game he saw any action was against Michigan. Hart has been leading the defense.

Goalie Drew Goethals has been pretty good thus far – .521 save% though with 11.41 goals against per game (so, uh, that defense without Schmitt? Good or nah?) – and Bellarmine will have to rely on him until Schmitt is back in the lineup, most likely.

Special Teams

Once more, with feeling:

Bellarmine was so bad on faceoffs last year, winning just 42.68% (No. 52 nationally), including a 3/24 performance against Louisville native Brad Lott last year – one that could be pretty comfortably blamed for losing the Knights the game, given the close score. The best of bad options (Stephen Soriano) has graduated, but little-used Grant Beczkalo put up slightly better numbers albeit with a smaller sample size, so there might not be too much of a step back (also because there isn’t a whole lot of room to move in that direction). GB play has been Michigan’s bigger faceoff issue in the past year-plus though, so Schmitt will have to be controlled in this phase of the game.

Tyler Nangle has taken over on faceoffs after Beczkalo was pretty bad to start the year. He’s been decent – .550 in a limited sample size – but almost all of the positives came against a bad Robert Morris team, with struggles in the other couple games.

The Knights cleared at an elite level last year – again, great to have an outstanding LSM – second-best in the nation. With most of the short-stick midfielders and Schmitt returning, that should continue. Bellarmine is also one of the few teams nationally that puts more than a token effort into riding nowadays, so that aggression let them harass opponents into fails on nearly 15% of attempts.

Schmitt out, clear suffers. They’re still riding relatively well, but (especially in the Michigan game – a totally different circumstance in Oosterbaan, etc.) they’ve occasionally had a rough time getting out of their own end.

Bellarmine committed barely more penalties than opponents last year, so their style of play (except in contrast to Michigan’s relatively clean brand) doesn’t put them at a disadvantage. They did not score very well on the EMO, and gave up some goals man-down, so when things are uneven, it could be a slight advantage Michigan.

That’s unchanged for the most part, though Bellarmine has been charged with a few more infractions this year than last (they’re bordering on “dirty team” territory early in the year, though most of the penalties have been technical violations).

Big Picture

This is a non-conference opponent UDM has a good chance to beat, so doing that would be nice. That’s a hot sports take if there’s ever been one.

As I’ve said, most of the non-conference is going to be irrelevant to the season-long goals of the team (make the NCAA Tournament, something only the MAAC’s autobid will be able to achieve for them), but piling up the wins when you can get them builds confidence and improves reputation for this year’s team and beyond.

Using this game to prepare for the conference schedule is the more important factor, but you’re crazy if you don’t think UDM is trying to win it. Winning two of the next three (Bellarmine, Mercer, Air Force) going into conference play would give a strong chance to end the year with a winning record, as along as the MAAC goes according to plan.

Predictions

Detroit has two one-goal victories at home and indoors. They have two blowout losses away from the friendly confines of Ultimate Soccer Arenas…

• I think Bellarmine is able to control possession to a degree. They have a faceoff specialist who is above-average, and although I don’t think the majority of UDM’s faceoff issues fall on the FOGOs, there’s an ongoing difficulty in winning the GB, even if they win the clamp. With Ben Gjokaj missing the last few games, there are also limited bullets in the chamber if things don’t go well.
• The Bellarmine defense has really struggled without Schmitt in the lineup (and probably for other reasons, but Schmitt’s absence is an important one of them). Detroit has some firepower on offense, with a variety of attackmen – ball-carriers, feeders, and finishers – and a few midfielders who can bomb from outside. They should have a chance to convert on the offensive opportunities they do get.
• The key will be slowing down the Bellarmine offense. It’s outstripped expectations this year, thanks in large part to the output of Shanks and emergence of Perkins. Detroit has let attackmen get inside – the only way Jason Weber’s going to get consistently beaten – and they have to slow that down to slow down the Knights’ O.
• The penalty game could play a key role in this one. Detroit’s NCAA-record conversion rate last year was certainly built on some smoke and mirrors (and “playing Mercer, VMI, and Wagner, along with a MAAC schedule”). However, it still has the talent, and if Bellarmine consistently puts itself in tough situations, the Titans should convert. The thing is, Detroit has traditionally been penalty-prone as well, so there’s no telling which trend will hold out.

I think it’s clear that three of the teams in Louisville this weekend – Detroit, Bellarmine, and Ohio State – are approximately equal in overall quality (UDM beat the Buckeyes by one, OSU beat Bellarmine by one – obviously the transitive property doesn’t exist, but  lose games are close games) with Marquette standing above the pack. However, Detroit’s advantage inside Ultimate Soccer is gone. If UDM played Ohio State five more times, I don’t think they’d win half those games – and maybe not any. Bellarmine, playing at home, takes the 12-9 win.

Share your predictions, discussion, etc. in the comments.