The regular season is upon us. Unfortunately for Michigan, they face a stiff first test in the form of future Big Ten Conference foe Penn State. The Nittany Lions are playing a CAA schedule this year, but are ineligible for the league tournament and automatic bid, so they’re basically an independent.
Penn State
Fear the Nittany Lion!
1 p.m. EST
Feb. 8, 2013
Holuba Hall. University Park, Pa.
Tickets are FREE
Live stats
@UMichLacrosse. @PennStateMLax.
Michigan pregame notes.
Penn State pregame notes. .pdf notes.
Tempo-Free Profile
The TempoFreeLax.com numbers displayed here are adjusted for strength of schedule, and are obviously last year’s figures, given that this is the first game of the young season. The Nittany Lions played the No. 23 schedule in the land last year, so they built these numbers by playing above-average competition.
| Penn State 2013 | |
|---|---|
| Pace | 64.00 (46) |
| Poss% | 53.81 (5) |
| Off. Eff. | 31.08 (24) |
| Def. Eff. | 25.08 (7) |
| Pyth% | 75.72 (6) |
Jeff Tambroni has had a reputation as something of a slowdown coach, so considering that he had the personnel to dominate possession last year, it’s refreshing to see a team that didn’t play that slowly. Faceoffs were great, and the clear was outstanding.
The offense was hit-or-miss for Penn State last year. While they did play against some really good teams (and a top-half offense is really nothing to sneeze at for a non-power program), it was the one area where there was definitely room for improvement.
Where there wasn’t a whole lot of room for improvement was defense (wait until later, where I’ll predict that it gets better anyway!). Penn State was an elite team, and that’s even giving up double-digit goals on five different occasions. Four of those came in the first five games of the year, so they really locked down until the season finale.
Penn State was the No. 6 overall team last year, with the expectation of winning three-quarters of their games against average competition. They did win exactly that number against a slightly better-than-average slate, but they still have reason to be disappointed: They went 0-3 in one-goal games (and their other loss was only by two goals). If they can do a better job finishing this year, the Nittany Lions should be extremely good.
Offense
Last year’s Penn State offense was a reminder of the reasons we can’t assume the players who contributed will be the same from one year to the next. Specifically, T.J. Sanders was one of the country’s best attackmen last year. While Penn State lost Jack Forster from the top position of the scoresheet, Sanders – a lethal finisher with 44 goals and just five assists – should be able to add to his game to both score and set up others this year.
Senior attack Shane Sturgis should be even more of a distributor this year than he was last (27 goals with 17 assists), to allow the Nittany Lions to continue taking advantage of Sanders’ abilities.
The key offensive player outside of those two will be senior midfielder Tom LaCrosse, who had 23 goals and five assists last year. He’s a 5-10, 180-pounder, so not a big intimidating midfielder, but has the shot to keep defenses stretched out and open opportunities for his attackmen.
One of the big keys for Penn State will be to either find ways to continue scoring without assists (which they did last year, so it may not be that tough), or get someone to step up as a true distributor. Without seeing PSU on the field yet this spring, I would bet on players such as Sanders who had previously been exclusive finishers to become a little more well rounded.
Defense
This is where Penn State really made its hay last year, and where they may be even better this year.
Goalie Austin Kaut played all but 17 minutes between the pipes last year, and put up outstanding numbers with a .610 save percentage and just 7.37 goals against. Now a senior, he’s a consensus first-team all-america selection in the preseason to go along with All-CAA expectations. He’s also strong in the clear game, with just six turnovers all year. There’s a reason he’s the conference’s preseason player of the year.
Kaut didn’t do it on his own, of course. Senior defensemen Steven Bogert and Tyler Travis are both pre-season All-CAA selections, anchoring an all-around great defense. The third defenseman last year was J.P. Burnside, who is undoubtedly insulted to be the only close D starter not to earn all-conference honors in the preseason. Kessler Brown and Jack Donnelly play LSM.
Junior Michael Richards is the top short-stick defensive midfielder. Bogert, Donnelly, Richards, Tyler, and Burnside all had double-digit caused turnovers last year, but with an excellent goalkeeper, pressuring the opponent to force mistakes isn’t the focus of this defense.
Special Teams
The faceoff game is going to be a major question going into the year. Brother Rice alum Danny Henneghan was outstanding last year, but now that he’s graduated and moved on, the rest of the roster has a grand total of 10 attempts within the past year. Somebody who isn’t proven will have to take over. Poles Kessler Brown and Ryne Sternberg took two (both wins) and six (all losses), respectively last year, but it’s likely that a specialist who hasn’t played yet for the Nittany Lions becomes The Guy.
Penn State has a great clear, which you expect out of a team with good sticks. The entire defensive corps is very experienced, and Kaut certainly isn’t a liability in the clearing game, so expect another year of outstanding clearing. Moreso than a lot of other top teams, Penn State actually rode some opponents pretty hard last year (including an 18% fail rate from Michigan, though that was only slightly better than Penn State’s season average and about an average performance form Michigan). It’s certainly a trick they have in their bag, even if they don’t always emphasize it.
The Nittany Lions and opponents were about even in terms of penalties. They committed slightly fewer than the opposition, but for more time (which means more severe infractions, which could be something to watch). The conversion rates were virtually identical as well, so from top to bottom, this shouldn’t have a huge impact on the contest.
The Good Guys
Since I haven’t had a chance to give a full team preview to Michigan, a couple thoughts there. I do think the Wolverines are going to miss Gerald Logan in the goal this season. While Robbie Zonino is hardly going to be bad, Logan really is just that good. An experienced Michigan defense (albeit with lots of that experience coming at the MCLA level for the upperclassmen) will have to buckle down. The trend in that department is upward over the past couple years, so it’s totally possible.
Meanwhile on offense, Michigan has added firepower, and there’s a much deeper pool of talent on that side of the ball. Freshman Ian King is a star in the making, even if he has to play out of position at the left-hander spot in this one (until Will Meter comes back, which should happen shortly). Last year’s breakout stars were midfielders Kyle Jackson and Mike Hernandez, and a deeper attack unit – plus the addition of other talented middies such as freshman Mikie Schlosser – should really help there.
A healthy Brad Lott (he should be healthy by this point) is a really good faceoff guy, and though we don’t know anything about Penn State’s options – they haven’t played a lick at the dot – I think he can at the very least hold his own. What’s the biggest improvement there (aside from Lott’s experience in the Michigan system and with his wing players) will be depth. Kevin Wylie and Will Biagi have both shown the ability to spell Lott without being liabilities, or even take over if he struggles.
Big Picture
I think Michigan improved a lot more from Team Two to Team Three than they did in the first offseason of the program for a variety of reasons. Going from fifth-year seniors to freshmen was inevitably a dropoff (even if those freshmen had the talent to be better in the long run), and now those same freshman adding experience and mixing in with other Division-1 caliber players, rather than being thrown into the fire by themselves, will be much smoother.
That said, Penn State is really good. By the time you get to year three, there is hardly such a thing as a moral victory, but Penn State looks like an opponent that’s still well above Michigan’s head. Keeping this one close and showing signs of a bright future is probably a positive enough result.
Predictions
I’m torn on this one. I’d like to predict some positive results for Michigan, but the quality of opposition makes it tough.
- I do think Lott will see some success on faceoffs (and if it’s not him, I think Biagi has the potential to the same). Penn State’s power in the past was due to the presence of a really good specialist, so while the system certainly helps, you don’t just replace Danny Henneghan and maintain that level of success.
- Michigan’s defense showed some difficulty slowing down a finishing attackman last week against Tyler Melnyk (unfortunately a trend that’s continued from year one, though the defense overall has improved), so seeing T.J. Sanders – who scored four goals and notched an assist against Michigan last year – is pretty frightening. He should have a good game.
- Michigan has added offensive talent, but Penn State’s defense is just too good for a few experienced players originally recruited to an MCLA team or lesser-experienced varsity recruits to really have a good day. Early-season struggles will compound it, and Michigan will struggle to score.
U-M kept this one closer than expected last year, and given the way the teams ended up finishing that season, the result was even more surprising. The Wolverines will come out with a chip on their shoulder for this contest, but that doesn’t count for any goals at last check. A strong Penn State D and a slow pace of play lead to a comfortable win, though not a blowout on the scoreboard. Penn State 12, Michigan 7.
Share your predictions, discussion, etc. in the comments.