Michigan Preview: Ohio State

While Michigan and Ohio State are both already in the ECAC Tournament, this game could have some pretty big seeding implications (and of course the rivalry factor means even more). From great challenge comes great opportunity…

Ohio State

A nut with a body. And a lacrosse stick.

April 12, 2014. 11 a.m. EDT
Ohio Stadium
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Michigan preview. .pdf notes.
Ohio State preview. .pdf notes.
Maize n Brew preview.

Tempo-Free Profile

The TempoFreeLax.com numbers displayed here are up to date for this season, since there’s enough data nationally that the numbers are pretty meaningful. Although Ohio State is just 4-6, a pretty tough strength of schedule (No. 12) and all of their losses (except against Notre Dame) being very competitive keep them the No. 30 overall team in the land.

The Buckeyes like to play pretty slowly, but they aren’t particularly good at controlling the majority of those possessions. That means they don’t get a ton of possessions per game for themselves, but they’re not a huge outlier in that area, just below the median in each metric.

It’s what they do when they have the ball that has doomed the Buckeyes at times this season. In three 70-plus possession games this season, they’ve cracked double-digits… zero times (though they have gotten there four times in slower contests, mostly against weaker competition). The offense has moved in fits and starts, helping lead to the six losses in 2014.

The defense should have taken a step forward from last year, and it did just that. The Buckeyes are elite on that side of the ball, which makes them a dangerous team to close the year strong. That will give them the ability to pick off anyone.

Add it all up, and you have an OSU squad that’s just slightly better than the midway point nationally. With wins in three of their last four, they’re clearly playing their best ball of the year to date.

Offense

Logan Schuss may be gone, but an offensive force from British Columbia still stirs the drink that is the OSU offense. Junior midfielder Jesse King has 19 goals and 20 assists on the year (giving him a hand in 41% of Ohio State’s goals this season), and is nearly double the point total of the next Buckeye, despite missing a game. King is a 6-3, 200-pound intimidator, and one of the best individual talents nationally.

Behind him, however, the Ohio State offense is still trying to find its way. Sophomore attack Carter Brown has 15 goals and 10 assists, junior midfielder Turner Evans (who is more attack-sized and -skilled at 5-9, 165) has nine goals and 14 assists, junior attack Reegan Comeault (another player out of British Columbia) has 11 goals and eight assists, and junior midfielder David Planning has 12 goals and four assists.

As you can see, the Buckeyes alternate leading scorers between attack and midfield, with assists and goals able to come from either spot on the field – though more concentrated in the midfielders with King and Evans the only high-scoring Buckeyes with more helpers than finishes (notable because OSU assists as high a percentage of its goals as just about anyone in the nation).

The sixth spot has not been super-productive, and it has rotate between several players. Sophomore Ryan Hunter has a single start (in five appearances – seems like he’s out for the year injured), freshman J.T. Blubaugh has two, and Charlie Schnider (who is no longer listed on the roster, so I’m guessing he’s off the team) had three. Denver transfer Gordie Koerber was expected to make a huge impact on the OSU offense, but the sophomore has scored just six points in three starts (and ten appearances).

While OSU has the talent for other guys to step up in the event that their leading five are shut down, it’s certainly not what they’re most comfortable doing. Given that Michigan’s best depth comes in the midfield portion of the defense, U-M should be able to win a couple matchups and slow down the offense, but shutting it down completely is out of the question.

Defense

This is where the Buckeyes excel the most. Even though he’s a returning second-team all-league selection and was Inside Lacrosse‘s preseason selection for first-team all-ECAC honors and an HM All-American, senior Greg Dutton has not been the man between the pipes for Ohio State. He’s received the most playing time (more than other goalies combined), but does not have stellar stats at a .471 save percentage and 9.01 goals against per contest, worst marks on the roster. While he’s not fully to blame, it’s certainly contributed to the Bucks’ 1-5 mark on his watch.

Fellow senior Scott Spencer has received three starts, going 2-1 while playing almost the entirety of all three. Those have been the three most recent games, so don’t be surprised if his .500 save percentage and 8.47 GAA make the start between the pipes. However, given that Koerber’s stats have come mostly against tougher teams (including a great performance against Denver), he should be available as well. Freshman Nick Doyle has also seen time, including a start, but is the third option for now.

That Ohio State’s goalies have such pedestrian numbers makes a really good defense look worse than it is… and it’s still down to just No. 7 nationally. Senior Joe Meurer isn’t flashy (just eight CTs and nine ground balls on the year), but is a solid positional defender. Sophomroe Robbie Haus is the leading takeaway guy on a team that’s pretty into causing turnovers (but spreads the stat across several players). He has 12 on the year, and is also the team’s leading non-FO ground ball leader. Junior Luke Howard and senior Dominic Imbordino – the Buckeyes’ designated longpole faceoff specialist – have split time at the other position. Evan Mulchrone and Chris Mahoney seem to be the team’s top LSMs, but the Buckeyes don’t designate who’s playing there. Darius Bowling is another option there.

There are a ton of short-stick midfielders who are either defensive specialists or just really, really unproductive offensive options. Freshman Sean Giampietro and senior Michael Italiano look to be two of the most oft-used, but looking at Ohio State’s stats, they may be more willing than a lot of teams to play two-way middies (or at least give their D-middies permission to fire away).

Special Teams

Ohio State is pedestrian on faceoffs, with freshman Jake Withers rounding into the role, now having taken more than half of OSU’s total draws. He’s also the only Buckeye approaching .500 on the year, and doing anything better than .500 against Michigan would see him hit that mark, since he’s one win below it at this point. He wins a lot of his draws to himself, as well. We’ve seen Brad Lott dominate against great specialists this year and struggle against poor ones, so while the assumption is still that he’ll do well (he’s in the top 15 nationally in percentage), there’s always the chance – no matter the opposition – that he’ll lay a clunker. In a rivalry game, I think it’s more likely we’ll see Good Brad. His emotional level in a hometown game against Bellarmine (21/24) is probably most comparable.

Ohio State has an outstanding clear, even though they’ve played a couple decent riding teams. Given that the Bucks seem to score a goal or two by breaking Michigan’s ride every year, look for the Wolverines to be a little more conservative tactically unless and until they can snap to it late (either because they’re out of it or to surprise the Bucks into a mistake).

Ohio State’s also a decently heavy ride team (top-15 nationally), and although Michigan’s clear is pretty good these days, the Wolverines are prone to making a mistake or two. While the Buckeyes are more Maryland style – effort and intensity, rather than scheme – that’s the type of ride that’s scarier for Michigan. They have the game intelligence to defeat a gimmick ride, but not yet enough athletes and solid sticks to be able to defeat pure athleticism every game out.

Ohio State isn’t particularly penalty-prone. When they do go man-down, however, their defense really struggles. They’re allowing .400 conversion on 30 man-down chances. Michigan’s man-up is pretty good (as long as the Wolverines don’t turn it over). On the other side, Ohio State converts EMOs as a .290 clip, a mediocre number.

Big Picture

U-M has a chance to spoil Ohio State’s “Showdown in the Shoe,” get its first win over a traditional rival (previous wins: Mercer x2, Saint Joseph’s, Detroit, Furman, Bellarmine), and really knock the Buckeyes down a peg. While OSU is on the rise late in the season, a loss to Michigan would demolish that momentum. It would also help the Wolverines recapture some of their own momentum.

This game is also big for ECAC Tournament seeding. A Michigan win gives U-M a strong chance to bump up to the three-seed if Air Force and/or Fairfield can hold serve against the Scarlet and Grey. While that’s probably not significant in the long run (Michigan’s not making the NCAA Tournament this year, let’s be honest), it is another step forward for the program. It wouldn’t be bad to avoid a rematch with Ohio State in the first round of the conference tourney, given that the Buckeyes are hosting it, as well.

Predictions

Ohio State’s season-long numbers do not impress, but several of their most impressive outings have been their recent ones. Michigan, on the other hand, has gone hot-and-cold over the course of the whole year.

• While it’s no longer the lock that it was early in the year, I’m betting Brad Lott has a nice performance. Not only does Ohio State’s faceoff unit not impress, but Lott’s best game this season cam in a contest with high emotional factors for him (playing a bunch of his high school friends at Bellarmine in his hometown of Louisville), and that should give him the juice he needs to come out strong.
• Despite Ohio State’s good ride, Michigan’s failed clears (and there won’t be many) will be more attributable to errors from the Wolverines rather than a great play by the Buckeyes.
• Ohio State has a number of shooters, and plenty of players who can either shoot or feed. That’s trouble for a Michigan team with a goaltender who is capable of great games, but more likely to look “just OK” on any given outing. Robbie Zonino will have a save percentage well below .500.
• Jesse King will have a big contest, and since one of Zonino’s weaknesses is stopping the outside shot, King’s assists will be more to his fellow midfielders than to attackmen.
• Michigan will struggle to crack the Ohio State defense early, but running the offense through the midfielders (given that much of OSU’s best talent on defense is in the longpole contingent) will allow them to find openings, eventually loosening things up for an Ian King hat trick.

Michigan’s program is still a year away – especially given OSU’s huge impending losses from the senior class – from being able to go man-for-man with the Buckeyes. The rivalry factor does throw an element of the unknown into this one. Two years ago, it helped Michigan stay closer than expected. Last year, OSU wipe the floor with the Wolverines. This time around, I think it helps U-M stay close through a couple quarters (with runs by both teams mixed in), before Ohio State pulls away for a 12-8 win.

Share your predictions, discussion, etc. in the comments.