Michigan Preview: Maryland

I predict this game does not go well for Michigan. Just a hunch.

Maryland

I don’t have a joke to make about this logo :/

March 18, 2014. 4 p.m. EDT
Michigan Stadium
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Tempo-Free Profile

The TempoFreeLax.com numbers displayed here are up to date for this season, since there’s enough data nationally that the numbers are pretty meaningful. The figures are also adjusted for strength of schedule, and Maryland has… the No. 7 slate nationally. Plus they’re undefeated, dominating basically everybody, etc. Yay.

These Terp guys might just make it, folks. They are nationally elite in… everything. The only thing in that handy chart that doesn’t look good is pace, but given that it’s a style mark, not a quality one, that Maryland has been able to play such slow games while consistently scoring double-digits means that they’re also really good at slowing things down, too.

They’re the No. 6 offense in the country, which is like terrible for them. It would be really good for everybody else (except like Albany and Loyola, I guess), though. They’re scoring on more than two out of every five possessions, a great mark.

It’s all the more impressive because they get the lion’s share of possessions, as well (more through the transition game than by dominating faceoffs, but we’ll get to that in a moment). Maryland plays so slowly because that means the opponent hardly has a chance to get the ball at all.

When the opponent does end up getting the ball, however, they ain’t doin’ much with it. The UMd defensive unit is the best in the land, and it’s hasn’t built up that reputation against scrubs (well, not only against scrubs, given that they have indeed played the worst offense in the country, from Mount St. Mary’s, but they’ve also played one of the best, UMBC).

Offense

Prepare for doom. This offense scores a lot of goals. In fact, Maryland hasn’t been held to single digits once (Duke was the closest, holding them to ten scores).

Senior midfielder Mike Chanenchuk leads the way with 19 goals and six assists, freshman attack Matt Rambo isn’t far behind with 13 goals and four assists, junior attack Jay Crlson has 11 and two, freshman attack Connor Cannizzaro has nine and three, and junior midfielder Joe LoCascio has just four goals and three assists. That quintet has started every game thus far.

Just attack Kevin Forster has four starts in four games played, and Tim Rotanz has two starts in two games played. That appears to be because Rotanz coincidentally returned to the lineup as Forster exited it, though I don’t see anything about Forster’s injury (Rotanz’s was a “lower body” injury). Look for the freshman Rotanz to round into form as he gets healthier and more comfortable in the offense.

This is a pretty balanced unit thanks to Chanenchuk, but without him it would be very attack oriented (there is no “without him,” so that’s somewhat irrelevant, but whatever). He’s one of the more assist-oriented offensive players thus far, and this is a Maryland team that does not rely much on passing to score the rock, with only about 40% of their goals assisted. When you have the best players, you can probably win a lot of one-on-one matchups.

Michigan’s close defense has been incapable of slowing down scoring attackmen through three years, so… pain.

Defense

The defense is even better for Maryland. Senior goalie Niko Amato is an important part of that, and he was behind only Penn State’s Austin Kaut in Inside Lacrosse‘s preseason All-American honors. He’s saving .608 of shots faced thus far in 2014.

The defense in front of Amato is really good, as well. Opponents’ Shots on Goal percentage isn’t a huge feather in Maryland’s cap (.573 on cage is above the national average), so clearly the accuracy is OK and Amato is stopping some good shots, but opponents are hardly getting opportunities to shoot, thanks to the slow play, possession percentage… and a really talented defense.

Pole Mike Ehrhardt is living up to his selection as a first-team All-American in the preseason with 14 caused turnovers and 25 GBs. The senior is also physically intimidating at 6-5 and 215 pounds… and isn’t listed with a start yet this year. Something’s fishy there. Junior Goran Murray hasn’t quite lived up to his second-team selection (from an individual statistical standpoint with four GBs and CTs, since it counts for something that he’s been a six-game starter for the best D in the country). Junior Casey Ikeda has been the third starter, and he has seven caused turnovers and ning GBs on the year.

The dangerman after Ehrhardt is Brian Cooper, who is listed as a defenseman on the roster but is second among non-Ehrhardt poles in production, so is likely your starting LSM. He has nine CTs and 17 ground balls on the year thus far. Sophomore Matt Dunn is also listed as a six-game starter, so… Maryland just has so many good poles that they rotate a lot? It might not be relevant for Michigan’s purposes. Maryland is really good on defense, and can run out tons of highly skilled players at various longpole spots.

Hardly any short-sticks on the team have several ground balls without racking up some serious offensive production, so it’s tough to say who the d-middies are there. Frehsman John Belz seems to be one, but beyond that, your guess is as good as mine (maybe better if you’ve seen Maryland play more than a game or two this year!).

For Michigan, a team that commits a lot of turnovers, an aggressive and talented defense is a nightmare. U-M should have trouble even getting it to the attack at times – more on that in a sec – and a very aggressive Maryland defense with 54 caused turnovers on just 149 opponent possessions (through six games!) should continue that. Michigan has really decreased its reputation as a volume-shooting team, or at least is doing so accurately enough to score and justify it this year, but shooting when the slightest opening arises will be the key.

Special Teams

Maryland’s faceoff game isn’t among the country’s best, but that’s more due to giving a few backups some run (non-starters are 7/26 on the year) than the starter not being good. Charlie Raffa, in fact, is quite good, one draw short of clearing 60% on the year. Faceoffs are actually a strength for Michigan as well, and the battle between the No. 11 (Brad Lott) and No. 16 (Raffa) specialists in the country should be a good one.

The other parts of the possession game are a nightmare, as listed above. Whereas most teams with elite talent are content to let the opposition clear, Maryland is one of the hardest-riding teams in the country (albeit with not many attempts because of the faceoff disparity and the Terps’ propensity for scoring damn near every time they get the ball). Maryland is also one of the best clearing teams in the country, no surprise given that they can go out and recruit the best sticks every year, and usually succeed in landing them.

Maryland, as you might expect from their style of play, is a somewhat penalty-prone team. They’ve committed 20 penalties on the year, with plenty of them greater than the 30-second technical variety. Surprisingly for a team that’s really good in 6v6 defense, the Terps’ man-down is just OK, with opponents converting eight of 17 EMO opportunities this year. Less surprisingly, the Maryland man-up seems to be just as lethal as the regular offense, converting 11 of 19 EMO opportunities thus far this year. Michigan has been a good man-down D and not particularly penalty prone, so they should be able to avoid that stinging them too much.

Big Picture

Michigan’s program has clearly made strides – and big ones. Competing on an even level with this Maryland team… that’s a few more strides (and a few more years) down the road. Michigan’s not going to win, and staying closer than expected is a far more reasonable goal.

U-M should look to breaking as close to even as possible in the possession game (something not many teams are able to do), and work toward achieving personal goals when it comes to efficiency. It’s more a man-vs.-self battle than a reasonable opportunity to win. It is a good glimpse at what an elite program looks like – and something to aim for in the future.

Previews from the Maryland angle, and the Michigan angle. (Team blog preview pieces? Mama, we’ve made it).

Predictions

There should be good and bad in this one for Michigan, and even some of the would-be “bad” might count as something of a moral victory against this Maryland team.

• Brad Lott is prone to playing up or down to his competition, and facing one of the best specialists in the country should coax a strong performance out of him. He has been better than Raffa on a week-to-week basis, so breaking the .500 mark is a reasonable and attainable goal.
• Maryland is going to score a lot of goals. This is a game where you can’t really fault Robbie Zonino for that. The key is to avoid giving up softies (if there are even any opportunities for that) and at the very least make Maryland earn what they get, because they will.
• I would count on Michigan clearing surprisingly well against a heavy ride. The Wolverines’ clear is on the verge of a top-ten unit nationally, so the bygone days of fretting out every attempt are gone. That said, Maryland is still really good at riding. Expect somewhere between U-M’s standard 90% offensive clear rate and Maryland’s standard 77% opponent clear rate.
• The Wolverines will not have as accurate a day as the average Terp opponent has this year. That’s partially because the Wolverines are neither UMBC nor Duke, and also because it probably behooves Michigan to fire away more frequently than they normally would. Playing an aggressive defense like Maryland’s is not a time to probe and look for the best shot.

All told, there’s a reason this UMd team is the best in the country. There are also many reasons Michigan isn’t ready to compete in that tier. I think Maryland calls off the dogs to a certain degree in the second half, letting the final score look a little closer than it would otherwise be. Michigan loses to Maryland, 18-7.

Share your predictions, discussion, etc. in the comments.