Michigan Preview: Cornell

So Michigan is playing the team that was last year’s best in the nation by a pretty comfortable margin. Terrifying! Of course, this isn’t last year’s Cornell team, so things aren’t quite as grim as they seem.

Cornell

Bears: considered way scarier than the color red. FACT.

March 1, 2014. 1 p.m. EST
Oosterbaan FieldHouse. Ticket info.
Live Stats. Live audio.
@UmichLacrosse. @CornellLacrosse.
Michigan game preview. .pdf notes.
Cornell game preview. .pdf notes.

Tempo-Free Profile

The TempoFreeLax.com numbers displayed here are last year’s figures, though starting next year there should be enough data to start using numbers from this year. They are also adjusted for strength of schedule, which means Cornell gets the advantage statistically of having played the No. 11 schedule in the country last year. They went nuclear against some good teams.

I’ll start with the only phase of the game Cornell didn’t dominate last year: possession. The Big Red were better at facing off and riding than that number would make you think, so it was a mediocre clear (just about in the middle of the country) that prevented them from being unbelievable in every aspect of the game.

As for the offense and defense, both speak for themselves. Cornell played tough competition in the Ivy League, along with games against Syracuse, UVa, Ohio State, Maryland, and Duke. They did well enough against that slate to be top-6 nationally on both sides of the ball.

Just as important, Cornell was darn fun to watch last year. They played at a really fast pace – which you can do when you’re awesome on both sides of the field and only OK in possession – and their games featured tons of action. They played in one game all year (an 8-9 loss to Bucknell) where both teams failed to hit double digits.

Add it all up, and you have a team that was 2.72% better than the No. 2 squad in the land (Hopkins). Cornell was really good last year, and as long as they don’t have huge personnel losses, they should be just as good in 2014.

Offense

So, uh, those personnel losses. The best player in college lacrosse is no longer with the Big Red, and Rob Pannell’s No. 2, fellow attackman Steve Mock, has also graduated. Nos. 4 and 6, midfielders Max Van Bourgondien and Connor English, are also gone. Yes, four of the top six scorers (among nine total double-digit point-scorers) are gone. That’s 240 of Cornell’s 401 total points from that quartet alone. Going down the full list, another 15 points were accounted for by depth/defensive/etc. players.

Pannell alone scored or assisted on nearly 40% of goals for one of the best offenses in the country. You just can’t replace that guy overnight.

Cornell of course, doesn’t have a choice, and they’ll roll with the guys who are still around. Senior attack Dan Lintner has led the way thus far with 10 goals (and zero assists), and junior linemate Matt Donovan isn’t far behind him with six goals and three helpers. Junior midfielder John Hogan has four goals and two assists right behind that duo.

This is where small sample sizes can distort things, because Joe Paoletta, listed as a short-stick defensive midfielder on the Big Red’s roster, is No. 4 on the team in points with a goal and three assists. Either he’s playing more offense than you’d expect based on his roster listing (or that roster listing is wrong – which I suspect is the case with only one GB on the year) or early-season weirdness will shake itself out. It looks like Paoletta started one game at attack, with senior Connor Entenmann getting the honor in their other contest.

The No. 5 scorer (three assists) is FOGO Doug Tesoriero, so look for the Big Red to generate some of their offense by winning draws cleanly.

Connor Buczek, a junior midfielder, has three goals and no assists thus far on the year. He’s the leading returning scorer from last year (35 goals and 18 assists), so expect his role to result in more production over time. He has been shooting a lot, but not particularly accurately to date with only 10 SOGs in his 18 shots, with the three finding twine. Sophomore midfielder Andrew Keith has just one goal on the year, but has started both games for Cornell.

Through two games, the offense has been far less prolific that last year’s (duh), and against two defenses (Hobart and Binghamton) that were pretty bad last year. The jury is still out, but leaning toward the expected huge dropoff. This is still an attack-driven offense, but without Pannell, one that’s likely to be far less dependent on a single dominating attackman. That’s a good thing for Michigan, which is still looking for that true shutdown defender to stick on the best offensive player on the other team. There’s a bit more balance in the scoring, but those who are stepping up are inexperienced to date, and have just two games under their belts. Early in the season is the right time to catch Cornell.

Defense

The defense was also excellent last year. Goalie A.J. Fiore, who started every game last year, has graduated. To date, new starter Brennan Donnville has saved exactly half the (few) shots he’s faced, allowing 16 total goals. He played about 38 minutes last year in relief of Fiore, saving .385 of shots faced and allowing 12.37 goals per 60 minutes. He’s going to be a downgrade from Fiore, who was at .517 through last season – against much tougher competition during the course of the year than Donnville has seen yet this year.

Senior Tom Freshour, freshman Marshall Peters (listed at LSM but with both starts so far this season), and junior Jordan Stevens are the starting defense. Stevens and Peters have caused four and two turnovers, respectively, the only members of the Big Red with more than one CT to their credit. Stevens is also the non-FOGO leader in ground balls to dat this season. Cornell is replacing LSM Thomas Keith (non-FO ground ball leader in 2013) and Jason Noble in the defense, with Freshour and Stevens returning starters. The LSM spot – or third close D if Peters is truly playing LSM – is a huge question mark.

In the short-sticks, Cornell must replace Tom Trasolini, who was last year’s third-leading (non-FO) ground ball man. Mike O’Neil seems to have been the top options to date (with limited evidence this far, to be fair), but likely won’t live up to Trasolini’s high standard.

Cornell lost a ton defensively – not as much as on offense, but still some of the more established players – and could be somewhat vulnerable to a Michigan offense that is rounding into potent form. Binghamton and Hobart – hardly Johns Hopkins – both put up eight goals apiece in relatively competitive games.

Special Teams

Possession was the one area in which Cornell was not elite last year, and that stands to improve this season, albeit as many of the other units take a step back. Doug Tesoriero won .581 of his draws last year – other specialists combined to win just .368 – and has outdone that so far with a .723 mark (albeit against two teams that have a recent history of pretty poor performance on the dot). Michigan’s Brad Lott has shown he can do very well even against the best – Hopkins’s Drew Kennedy – and I wouldn’t worry about faceoffs too much.

Cornell was barely above the national average in clearing last year, which is a little odd given the level of talent on the squad. This year, they’ve failed only twice in 32 attempts (elite, albeit with a small sample size). In fairness, Binghamton and Hobart were both among the five worst-riding teams in the country last season. Michigan has shown the ability to ride heavy – and that will be more true than ever in Oosterbaan Fieldhouse – and could pull it out against Cornell. The Big Red had a top-10 ride last year, and the raw value thus far is a little better than last year’s mark.

Cornell has already committed 12 penalties in two games, so they’re far from a clean team. That’s a little odd, given their limited number of caused turnovers (12 in 58 opponent possessions), but made a little clearer when you realize two against Binghamton (an illegal equipment call and an offsides) were not physical infractions. Still, four in each game isn’t exactly clean.

HOWEVER, opponents have scored only twice in their 12 opportunities. Coming the other way, Cornell has cashed in on six of its eight man-up chances. Cornell’s far more likely to make an opponent pay than vice versa, so even if they play plenty of man-down, it may not be an advantage for Michigan.

Big Picture

Michigan might be another year or two from consistently competing with programs like Cornell (at least in a down year – hardly anybody is consistently competing with them when Pannell’s on the roster). However, the Wolverines may be catching the Big Red at the right time.

Cornell has played only two games so far, while Michigan has played four. The Big Red are adjusting to life without Rob Pannell, without Steve Mock, without A.J. Fiore, without Thomas Keith. That might take more than two games. Cornell could be poised for an upset.

If it were to happen, that would be the biggest victim in Michigan’s program history. It would also give Michigan the chance to get multiple games above .500 with roadies against High Point and Furman on the horizon. Even if the Wolverines keep it close, that could be enough positive momentum to help build for the rest of the year.

Predictions

Michigan is a lot better than last year. Cornell is a lot (probably) worse than last year. Will that be enough to close the gap between the teams, though?

• Even though Doug Tesoriero is one of the country’s best faceoff men, U-M’s Brad Lott is right up there, as well. This should be a great battle, and based on Lott’s performance against Hopkins, one Michigan should have a slight edge in. I do think Cornell will get a fastbreak or two out of the exchange (even in game’s he’s dominated, Lott has given up a couple of those), but Michigan wins the battle at midfield.
• Michigan’s decent ride, combined with Cornell’s so-so clear (historically) and the cozy confines of Oosterbaan Fieldhouse, should see the Wolverines force more failed clears in one game than the Big Red has all season. Since that number would be “three,” it’s an accomplishment that isn’t super-significant.
• Cornell will have an attackman go off in this game, and given the season to date, it’s probably Lintner, with Donovan probably having a decent outing himself.
• The goalkeeping battle will be closer to the Mercer/Detroit parity than the “we’re playing against Austin Kaut or Eric Schneider” huge advantage for the opposition. Despite that, until Robbie Zonino shows he can control a game, slight edge goes to the other squad.
• Keys for Michigan will be slowing down the game a bit against a fast, explosive Cornell team, and making the most of their good looks offensively. They should get some with a relatively inexperienced Cornell D, and need to put those shots on the cage. Enough will find their way past the keeper.

The Hopkins game was a tough one for Michigan for several reasons, not least of which was the two-day preparation time. With that in mind (and an upset unlikely from the get-go), I think the Wolverines may have spent more time than normal preparing to play Cornell. That may have hurt against Hopkins, but helps against the Big Red. The program still isn’t quite close enough to steal the win, however. Michigan falls in a close one (that still opens some eyes), 13-11.

Share your predictions, discussion, etc. in the comments.