Detroit managed a one-goal win over Marist at Titan Field last time out, but this time, the Red Foxes are hosting, and the stakes are even higher. The Red White and Blue will have to come ready to play – but the start to a miracle run like they had last season is far from out of the question.
Marist
RAWR!
May 1, 2014. 7 p.m. EDT
Poughkeepsie, N.Y.
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Marist Preview.
Tempo-Free Profile
The TempoFreeLax.com numbers displayed here are up to date for this season. Marist’s strength of schedule has improved (shockingly, since they’re played some conference dregs since facing Detroit), which is partially to account for some of the improvements below.
| Marist 2014 | |
|---|---|
| Pace | 60.00 (54) |
| Poss% | 51.15 (23) |
| Off. Eff. | 38.85 (19) |
| Def. Eff. | 38.16 (62) |
| Pyth% | 46.55 (39) |
Marist has improved in every aspect since last they faced the Titans. They’re playing at about the same speed, but controlling more of that possession, meaning that valuing whatever possessions Detroit can get will be at a premium (GULP!).
The defense is still really bad, even though it’s taken incremental steps since the last time these teams faced. If Detroit wants to win, Detroit has to score.
…that’s partially because the Marist offense is borderline elite. Although Detroit mostly kept the Red Foxes in check last time out, that’s been the exception rather than the rule for Marist.
Add it all up, and you have a middling program nationally, which places it among the best in the MAAC. Marist isn’t so far behind 1-seed Siena in that department.
When Last We Met
Detroit dug an early 5-1 hole, but clawed back with consistent scoring and a defense that started to step up after the first quarter. The Titans controlled the fourth quarter to open a 12-10 lead, then Marist scored with four minutes left to insert some late-game drama. Detroit was dominated in possession (32/73), but was the better team in both ends of the field, leading to the victory.
You can see my recap of that game here.
Offense
From last time, with updates and comments afterward.
Marist has five guys with double-digit points, and all of them are between 22-30 total on the year. That quintet is responsible for the vast majority of the scoring, and there’s a precipitous dropoff after that.
The main feeder is freshman attack J.D. Recor, who has nine goals and 21 assists on the year, tying him for the team lead with 30 points. He’s the only player with significant playing time to put up more assists than goals.
Sophomore attack Joseph Radin is tied with Recor in total points, though his distribution is very different. He has 26 goals and four assists on the season. The third starting attackman is Colin Joka, a junior with 20 goals and four assists.
Junior midfielders Drew Nesmith (20G, 2A) and Mike Begley (14G, 8A) are tied with 20 points, and they’re the final double-digit scorers to date for the Red Foxes. Fellow junior Patrick Eaker is physically intimidating at 6-0, 200, but even though he’s started all nine games, he has just two goals on seven shots. He’s going to be more prominently mentioned in the next section.
Marist is still a five-man offense, full stop. There is a 14-goal total drop from No. 1 to No. 5, and a 23-goal gap between No. 5 and No. 6. If you have enough to slow those guys down, the offense suddenly looks a lot less elite.
Pouring goals on weak Marquette, Manhattan, and Monmouth defenses (among others) has overrated the Marist offense to a degree, since other programs will gladly call off the dogs. That’s not Marist being poor sports, though – they’ve needed to put up that much scoring to win thanks to an extremely porous defense.
Defense
More from last time out:
Dave Scarcello has been Marist’s main goalie, earning most of the starts and playing all but just over 60 minutes on the year. His save percentage of .484 is pretty poor, but it’s better than backup Brian Corrigan, who is at .261. That’s not a weird sample size deal, with 66 minutes across four games and two starts on the year. Goalie play (and, as always, you don’t know how much they’re being sold out by those in front of them) has been poor.
Juniors Nick Struble, Karl Kreshpane, and Mike Collins are the starting defensemen (though two of Strubles starts have gone to freshman Frankie Brier). Struble and Kreshpane have five CTs each on the year, with eight ground balls apiece. LSM Jesse Brown is the bigger takeaway guy with six caused turnovers and 13 ground balls on the year.
Detroit should be able to succeed in the same ways they did last time. That should include some EMO action, as we’ll see shortly. Shayne Adams saw the previous Marist game start a hot streak, so he should either continue it or open opportunities for other Titans.
Special Teams
…and this aspect:
Marist is a good faceoff team, with sophomore Dominic Montemurro at .555 on draws, picking up more than a third of his ground ball opportunities on those. SSDM Patrick Eaker is also a big threat coming off the wing, allowing Marist to be really good in this area of the game. Given that it’s one with which Detroit regularly struggles, it may spell trouble.
Marist is an excellent clearing team (helping their offense be successful, I guess), failing just over 7% of the time. They make it up coming the other way though, choosing not to emphasize the ride and causing failed clears at about the same rate. Other than not giving possessions away, their emphasis in the possession game is more about the faceoffs.
Marist commits a ton of penalties (nearly twice as many as opponents), and that’s despite most of the possession in games coming in their own sticks – meaning fewer opportunities to commit infractions. They also stink at stopping the opponent EMO, allowing goals nearly 40% of the time. Going the other way, they score barely more than a quarter of the time. A clean game plays to their advantage.
Detroit was smoked on faceoffs last time out, but it feels like they’re playing with more bullets in their chamber to close the season. With Tyler Corcoran healthy, there’s an option to mix it up between he and Damien Hicks (and possibly include other guys). Wing play has been the bigger issue on faceoffs this season.
Despite a hesitance by Marist to ride, Detroit gave up plenty in the clearing game last time (America’s least surprising development). If UDM can not kill themselves in that aspect – no small task, apparently – the Titans should be able to make up a possession shortage.
Marist plays dirty, Detroit rocks the EMO better than any team in the country. This will be an opportunity to score some goals. Detroit’s capitalizing on them could be the difference in the game.
Big Picture
Survive and advance. Everyone has forgotten that Detroit basically limped into the MAAC Tournament last year (they weren’t far off this year either, with the loss to Manhattan meaning they didn’t control their own destiny on the regular season’s final day). They won two games there, gave Notre Dame a tough test in the NCAA Tournament, and suddenly the narrative of last year became that they were the best team in program history.
The same can happen this year. With two straight wins – starting against Marist – this can again be labeled a successful season, despite the twists and turns it took to get there. Winning two games would also guarantee a .500 record on the year, and anything else would see UDM finish below that mark.
Predictions
The last game was a nail-biter, but with some easy things going Detroit’s way, it could have been a comfortable Titan win. The question is whether they can fix those things.
- With more fully healthy options on faceoffs, Detroit should make some incremental improvement there, getting closer to 33% rather than barely clearing 25%.
- Speaking of “clearing,” Detroit absolutely must step up its game in that department. Marist pretty much does not ride, and most of the problems in the last game were avoidable by emphasizing clean play in that phase of the game. Even just getting yo 80% (equivalent with a bottom-eight team nationally in terms of season-long performance) would make a huge difference. I think the Titans will do that.
- Marist’s offense will look to erase the mediocre performance that they had last time out, and I think they should be able to do it. Drew Nesmith scored once on 14(!!!!!) shots, and I don’t think that’s something you’ll see with regularity. Marist’s offense will be more of a test this time, and the lessened possession deficit will be huge.
- Also huge will be the EMO. Detroit connected on two of four opportunities last time, and although that’s pretty good, it’s below their season average. Since Marist’s defense in general is bad, and the Red Foxes commit a ton of penalties, Detroit will have to step up its EMO game.
- Jason Weber will be awesome. I should include this in every preview.
Even though last game was a very close one, and both teams had a lot to be upset about in terms of their performance, I think Detroit’s mistakes (or simple lack of success when it comes to faceoffs) are more correctable. Evening out the possession game just a bit and approaching season-long performance on EMO (.696) will see the Titans win a 13-10 game.
Discussion, predictions, etc. go in the comments.