Michigan’s first-ever postseason action will take place tomorrow evening. It’s something of a tall task – the 4-seed Wolverines take on 1-seed Fairfield in the first round of the ECAC Tournament – but U-M has already played Fairfield close once this year, as well.
Fairfield
#Stagswag
May 1, 2014. 5 p.m. EDT
Jesse Owens Stadium
Columbus, Ohio
Live stats. Tournament Central.
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Michigan preview.
Fairfield preview.
Tempo-Free Profile
The TempoFreeLax.com numbers displayed here are up to date for this season. Fairfield was the top-ranked ECAC team (a deserving one-seed), but played a middling schedule in comparison to the other teams that made the Little dance (except Air Force, which played a very weak schedule).
| Fairfield 2014 | |
|---|---|
| Pace | 59.79 (55) |
| Poss% | 51.73 (19) |
| Off. Eff. | 36.06 (15) |
| Def. Eff. | 29.10 (22) |
| Pyth% | 70.68 (14) |
Fairfield really slows it down, and they’ve improved their ability to control those possessions since playing Michigan. They’re now in the top third of the nation in possession percentage, despite only being OK on faceoffs and generally ignoring their ride.
The offense has dropped slightly since Michigan played them last (with the Wolverines’ second-half near-shutout of the Stags playing a role in that). They haven’t dropped far though, and are still in the elite range.
The defense has dropped off as well, and a bit more precipitously. They’re still top-third nationally, but not the top-ten unit they were when they rolled into Michigan Stadium. Still a very strong unit.
Add it all up, and – despite the No. 37 strength of schedule in the nation – the Stags are a solid top-15 team.
When Last We Met
Michigan dug an 8-4 deficit at halftime, but clawed back using consistent offense (two goals in each quarter) and lockdown defense in the second half – just one goal allowed, albeit the deciding one.
You can read my recap of the previous contest right here.
Offense
Quoting liberally from the earlier preview, with some updates noted at the end:
The 33-point man is junior attack Tristan Sperry. His points are pretty evenly distributed, with 18 goals and 15 assists. Linemate Colin McLinden is right behind him with 32 points, but might even be the team’s leading scorer if he hadn’t missed a game earlier this spring. He has 11 goals and 21 assists, so he’s your bigtime feeder.
Among true midfielders, TJ Neubauer (who has played in all 10 games but hasn’t started any, if for no other reason than to allow the many A/Ms to get on the field at once) is the leading scorer, with 21 goals and two assists. Jake Knostman has started every game, but has only nine goals and four assists, to close out the double-digit point scorers.
McLinden has passed Sperry as the Stags’ leading scorer, but the distributions between those two remain about the same: McLinden is assisting more, Sperry is scoring more (he’s actually a bit more lopsided in that direction by now). Neubauer is the third-leading scorer, with A/Ms Eric Warden and Dave Fleming right on his heels before Knostman.
Defense
Same story as above. Lots from the earlier preview:
Senior Greg Perraut is the team’s leader [in caused turnovers] with 10 on the year, though classmate Toby Armour, sophomore LSM Conor Barr, and even keeper(!) Jack Murphy have nine apiece. Junior Max Buchanan is the third longpole starter, though he has a pedestrian six turnovers on the year.
Freshman LSM Jay Walsh also plays significantly – only slightly less than Barr, and I would estimate both cycle through at close D on occasion, given the limited playing time for other poles – and actually has seven CTs on the year. Junior Bryan Barry is the top SSDM, with 17 ground balls and only two shots on the year. He’s not a takeaway guy with only two on the year, but a solid on-ball defender.
Murphy has played the vast majority of time between the pipes, and despite the overall quality of the Fairfield defense, he has a good-not-great save percentage of .549 (below .600 is still great, but .560 or so is my cutoff for great). If you can get enough good shots on the guy, you can score. Of course, that’s not super-easy to do, and for a team like Michigan, it might be particularly tough.
Murphy’s save percentage has dropped a bit as the Stags’ defense has declined slightly, and Fairfield is also allowing more shots per possession, though there are fewer possession opportunities than before for opponents.
Special Teams
From before:
Fairfield’s mediocrity in the possession game is actually harmed by a ton of struggles on faceoffs, and this should be a matchup that the Wolverines dominate. Leading specialist Michael Roe is only .406, and No. 2 Louis DiGiacomo hits only slightly better at .436. If Brad Lott doesn’t solidly beat both of them (and both should play), it either on account of poor GB play by himself and the wings, or a sign that he’s still not consistent enough to succeed regularly.
Fairfield’s clear is very good, No. 13 in the country, but they’ve faced primarily poor rides to date, so the evidence one way or the other is not established. Given that Michigan is able to ride pretty hard should they desire (albeit giving up a goal 25% of the time or so), there might be an opportunity there. Coming the other way, the Stags are content to give a little pressure and let the opponent mess things up for themselves. Michigan might be susceptible to that, but they won’t see a hard ride.
Brad Lott had his lunch money taken against Fairfield – 7/20 – and with an average performance out of him in that game (which is well above average for a standard FOGO), Michigan would have had a real opportunity to win the game. He’s mercurial at this point, and mastering the matchup is almost a matter of chance as much as skill.
The Stags’ clear has gotten better and their ride worse, so expect more of the same in this one. Penalties haven’t been a major factor for the Stags all year – including the previous game against Michigan – so I’ll excise that preview portion.
Big Picture
Michigan is basically playing with house money at this point, since nobody expected them to win more than a few games and they were unanimously picked last in the league. A loss doesn’t harm them, but a win would be absolutely huge for the growth of the program.
That they came so close to the win last time will serve as a motivating factor – but that’s a two-way street. Michigan wants to close the deal this time, while Fairfield wants to show that the razor’s-edge victory in The Battle at the Big House was a fluke. An angry Fairfield team might have a bit more motivational boost than a confident Michigan team.
Should the Wolverines win, they’d also be on the verge of the NCAA Tournament, looking to avenge a second loss against the winner of the Ohio State-Air Force game on the other side of the bracket.
Predictions
Fairfield was better over the course of the year than they were against Michigan, but U-M also happened to do some things poorly that they’re generally expected to do. There should be some major intrigue in this one.
- Brad Lott gets back toward his season-long faceoff performance (.540), and though he won’t hit that number, getting within a couple draws of 50/50 should rectify the possession shortage Michigan had last time around.
- Fairfield isn’t going to go through a 28-minute goal drought this time around. For Michigan to succeed, they need to balance that out by not giving up a big early lead themselves. Having some opportunity to control possessions early should help that (Lott was 3/13 in the first half last time).
- McLinden will have a big day in the assist department. He only had three last time out (in a low-scoring game), and will probably take that as a personal challenge to step his game up. Sperry will be the primary
boat shoebeneficiary of that, with four goals. - I have more faith in Fairfield’s offense to adjust to Michigan’s defense (which has had some holes this year) than in Michigan’s to adjust and produce even more this time around. I do think a Wolverine will score a hat trick once more, but it won’t be David Joseph. The Stags might put a bit more focus on Joseph since he was the leading scorer last time, opening things up for other middies or the attackmen.
I think Fairfield’s season-long performance (and Michigan’s, for that matter) will say more about the outcome of this game than the previous contest’s result. Fairfield has more personnel and schematic things to tinker with by simple virtue of having more history and recruiting. They’ll come out looking to prove last time was a fluke, and have a more resounding Stags win by a 13-7 score.
Feel free to use the comments for questions, discussion, and your own predictions.
Wow, you predict Fairfield to stomp UM. I think the game will be much closer and that Ian King will score a hat trick to make this a two-goal margin.
As implied throughout the post, I think the first game being so close was pretty much a fluke. That’s not a rip on U-M, but Fairfield is a really good team that had one really bad half against Michigan. I think it’s more likely that they don’t have that type of half again.
Michigan’s method of avoiding a blowout is to bring the possession margin back near even, but it would take a very surprising performance out of Fairfield (and a nearly flawless one from Michigan) to stick within a couple goals a second time.
Third time (sort of). Last year UM lost by two at Fairfield. Maybe they just have their number. Let’s hope.
Having watched the first game, I didn’t quite think it was a fluke, but Michigan capitalized on the opportunities they were given and limited mistakes in the defensive end. I felt it was just them playing up to their potential. But given how young they are, you never know which team will show up tomorrow.
I watched Fairfield play Bellarmine, and despite winning 9-3 in the rain, they didn’t really look like a top 15 team. They are very consistent and fundamentally sound, but they have had quite a few close games against teams of Michigan’s caliber. They didn’t appear to have the skill of a team like Hopkins to really pull away if they don’t get a few breaks and you make them make plays rather than beating yourself.
Not saying Fairfield shouldn’t be favored, but it could be interesting. I wish there was a way to stream the game online.
Okay Tim, tell us how you make these accurate predictions. Do you use a ouija board or tarot cards. You were spot on today with your call.
This game was really close until halfway through the 4th, and then Fairfield scored 3 empty net goals late to make it seem more lopsided. Really happy with how the defense has improved, and I’ll be honest I didn’t think Zonino had this kind of game in him. He was really good. With Heidt (#1 goalie recruit) coming in and Logan back next year, there is going to be some real competition at that position.
The offense struggles to generate great shots against the best defenses. They can score. Ask Robert Morris, Mercer, Detroit and even Cornell. But without great dodging or feeding attackmen, they are still limited. Not much of an inside game or ability to generate from x.
They need more athletic wings too. It seems like Lott gets the other guy locked up often, but they lose the ensuing ground ball.
All in all though a great step forward this year. A better defense. Lots of depth at midfield. King is for real. I doubt this team is going to sweep through the Big Ten in the next year or two, but they will start knocking off better teams and putting a scare on everyone.
Game was close until the 4th when the better team pulled away. But Michigan should have a few things to feel good about. They played Fairfield very close for that first half. Zonino really played well. He will challenge for the starting spot next year, so Michigan must feel good about the goalie position for the future.
Gaughan looks like he arrived and will provide another dodging midfield threat. He is athletic and has a nice deceptive shot.
With another year of experience, and some more talent coming in, I’m expecting another step forward next year. They almost beat Cornell and Fairfield this year, so you know they will be looking to convert one type of games those next year.
Agree that this year was a huge leap forward for the team and I’m excited for next year. Not much more I can add to Andy D’s really good analysis above except to say that one other thing missing is a lockdown defenseman. Before the season started I predicted five wins for this team (you can check my comments from a few months ago) and they didn’t disappoint. I expect to see another leap forward next year, maybe to a .500 record.