I’ve run this exercise the past couple years with the MAAC as it relates to Detroit (look for that post over the next couple days here). For the first time ever, a Bracketology post featuring Michigan is not only relevant but necessary.
The Scene
The ECAC schedules are a little wonky this year. Bellarmine has played its entire four-game schedule (winless). Michigan has played three of its four games. Fairfield and Air Force have played two. Ohio State’s only league game to date has been its win over Bellarmine.
That’s a wide range in games played, and it inserts a lot of noise into how things can shake out over the next couple weeks. Fortunately, we’re likely to know where at least one team will fit in the league tournament coming out of the weekend. Depending on how the games go, it’s also possible we’ll know even more.
What We Know Now
Bellarmine has been eliminated from the conference tournament by virtue of its losses to all the other teams in the league. Since there are only five teams, the field is set, with only seedings to be shaken out. Fairfield, Air Force, Ohio State, and Michigan – in some order – will play in Columbus May 1-3.
| Team | Record | To Play |
|---|---|---|
| Fairfield | 2-0 | @AFA, OSU |
| Air Force | 2-0 | Ffd, @OSU |
| Ohio State | 1-0 | Mich, AFA, @Ffd |
| Michigan | 1-2 | @OSU |
Interactive Whiteboards by PolyVision
Michigan is the easiest team to figure out, because the Wolverines have two league losses already. The best record they can put together is 2-2. The worst record Fairfield or Air Force can put together is 2-2. Both of those teams already hold tiebreakers over the Wolverines. Thus, Michigan cannot finish ahead of them in the standings, and is locked into one of the two bottom spots (there might be some tiebreaker craziness possible if three teams finish 2-2, but we won’t get into that now). Even if U-M beats Ohio State, they have to cheer for another Buckeyes loss to get out of the 4-spot.
The other three teams in the league are undefeated, and obviously all have games remaining against the other two contenders, plus Ohio State’s game against Michigan. They can all end up in any of the top-three seeds, with only Ohio State having the – slight – possibility to finish No. 4. Although the field is set, there’s still plenty of leeway in terms of where the teams will seed.
This Weekend
That Bellarmine is both the only team eliminated and the only team that has finished its conference schedule means both league games this weekend are going to be relevant to conference seeding.
IF Michigan loses to Ohio State, the Wolverines are locked into the four-seed, and the Buckeyes will move (temporarily, at least) into the second slot in the conference, since either Fairfield or Air Force will be losing to the other Saturday. Winner is No. 1, loser is No. 3. That’s more simple.
IF Michigan beats Ohio State, the Buckeyes are (temporarily, at least) in last place in the tournament. Michigan would be No. 3, the loser of Fairfield/Air Force No. 2, and the winner in the top spot. That makes the following couple weekends more relevant to the rest of the conference race. The Buckeyes could still finish out of the bottom slot by winning both remaining games (and in fact that would see them finish No. 1), but if they only win one, tiebreakers will come into play.
Since the most likely outcome seems to be that Michigan will lose to Ohio State Saturday (Laxpower likes theBuckeyes by four goals, Tempo-Free Lax says it’s more like an 11-9 outcome in favor of the Buckeyes), we won’t get too deep into the other scenarios today.
The Big Picture
For our team of note, Michigan, the stakes are simple: win Saturday, or you’re facing the best team in the conference the first day of May.
Except that the way things have shaken out so far the best team in the conference and the worst team in the conference may not be that far apart. I guess we’ll see over the next couple of weeks if Ohio State’s recent resurgence has them separating from the pack or if Fairfield is actually better than last weekend’s score, but for now it looks like seeding might not make a whole lot of difference in this one.
Agreed. If Fairfield finishes #1 and OSU #2, I’d rather face Fairfield in the first round rather than playing OSU in Columbus.
Remember last year when Detroit had a less than stellar team but won its conference tourney and made some noise in the NCAAs before losing a close one to Notre Dame? Maybe UM can have that magic this year. Just saying….