Detroit Preview: VMI

After dropping two straight rivalry games to fall below .500 on the year, Detroit has a very good chance to get back to that mark this weekend in Virginia. VMI has been a consistent struggler.

VMI

The VMI team name is the Keydets, a Southern style slang for the word “cadets”.

March 1, 2014. noon EST
Lexington, Va.
Live Stats. Video Stream.
@DetroitTitans. @VMILacrosse.
Detroit game preview. .pdf notes.
Gameday central.
VMI game preview (.pdf).
Wounded Warrior Project weekend.

Tempo-Free Profile

The TempoFreeLax.com numbers displayed here are last year’s figures, though starting next year there should be enough data to start using numbers from this year. They are also adjusted for strength of schedule, which means VMI gets everything banged down thanks to playing the sixth-easiest slate in the country (an still only winning one game).

So VMI wasn’t any good, yeah? Just quickly throwing some calculations down, the numbers say that an average game against the average team would see VMI lose by a count of 15.8-6.74. That’s brutal.

The one thing that had been a sign of hope in recent years had been performance on faceoffs, but when Stephen Robarge graduated at the conclusion of 2012, even that fell off a cliff. The Keydets were horrible both clearing and riding last year, tying the whole possession ineptitude theme together.

VMI had the worst offense and third-worst defense in the country last year. There really wasn’t anything the Keydets could do particularly well. Manhattan, the only victim of last year’s VMI team, has to feel like a bunch of bums (and rightfully so: they weren’t much better despite winning four games).

The only number that looks good in the above is pace, which isn’t inherently good or bad. In fact, in VMI’s case, it’s bad, because fast games mean that the opposition is scoring really quickly when they have possession, and the Keydets are turning it over with a quickness.

Offense

The moribund VMI offense lost its two most prolific scorers in the form of Russell East and Bernie Mowbray. Also gone is No. 5 scorer Alex Henthorn, who started 10 of 13 games last year, No. 6 Anthony Mordaga, who reached that high on the list despite missing almost half the season, and No. 9 Will Baker. That’s five of of the ten Keydets who had double-digit SHOTS last year. Only the top six had double-digit points. That’s how you rank dead last nationally in offense, folks.

Anyway, this year’s three leading scorers have been senior Mickey Hofmeister, junior Eric DeBlasio, and sophomore Ben Huger. That’s also your starting attack, which provides pretty good insight into how VMI runs its offense. All three are goal-heavy, with about twice as many scores as helpers. Together, they account for 17 of VMI’s 26 total points, including 11 of the 17 goals.

In three games, VMI has started nine different midfielders. Sophomore Dan Bull and freshmen Dale Mattice and Kasey Kettle have been the high-scorers among those, albeit with only three, two, and two points, respectively. Sophomores Gabe Snowbarger and Dexter alum Andrew Erber have also notched points, to round out all scoring for VMI this year.

This is clearly an attack-focused offense, which doesn’t necessarily play into Detroit’s strengths (really good SSDMs). However, given the limited success they’re having against any and all competition so far this year, that probably shouldn’t matter. Detroit should be able to win the majority of the one-on-one matchups and effectively shut down the VMI offense.

Defense

Let’s start in goal, where Matt Lindemann played all but about 40 minutes of last year’s action, and relatively well, given the defense that was in front of him (.516 on 372 shots on goal against, making him a runner up for the Gerald Logan Award to Logan himself). He’s gone, and those who are replacing him haven’t been so successful. Junior Evan Windisch has gotten all three starts and played 76.6% of available minutes. He’s saving .367 of shots faced, so he’s no Lindemann. In relief duty for Lindemann last year as a sophomore, he was slightly worse, with a .357 save%. Improvement!

In front of him, senior Rory Dillon, junior LSM Tyler Prasnicki, and freshman Tom Brown have received all three starts. Prasnicki is the (lone) dangerous defender for the Keydets, with 12 caused turnovers through just three games thus far. Brown has six of his own. Sophomore LSM Patrick Hine appears to be the fourth most important pole to the team (I would imagine he plays the third true close D spot, but it’s unclear from the stats this early in the year).

Despite their ineptitude at a lot of things (including a huge GB deficit, even when faceoffs are removed from the equation), one thing VMI does is cause a lot of turnovers – dead even with opponents. When failed attempts to cause a turnover result in an easy goal for the opposing team, it may not be worth it. They were not a heavy caused turnover team last year, so it could be statistical noise from only playing three games thus far or a change in strategy.

With Detroit’s ball-carrying skill in Maini, Masterson, and others, they should be able to avoid falling into that trap. The Titans haven’t exactly been careful with the ball this year, but they’re going against the worst opponent they’ve faced yet.

Special Teams

The Stephen Robarge days are over, and in one offseason (2012 to 2013), VMI went from one of the nation’s best faceoff teams to one of its worst. Last year’s most-used specialist, Gaston Ledford, is gone (along with his .469 win percentage), and things only get worse for the Keydets. Against some traditionally mediocre faceoff teams, they are winning a mind-numbing .324 of faceoffs. That’s a battle that Damien Hicks should be able to win, and handily, whether freshman Mitch Wilson (.375 on 56 draws) or one of the backups is in.

VMI was the worst-clearing team in the country last year, and through three games this year the raw number is even worse (though to be fair Army and Navy were two of the hardest-riding teams in the country last year and I don’t suspect they’ve slowed that down). Still, They aren’t even making it to the box three-fourths of the time they clear. That’s brutal.

Coming the other way, VMI finds one of the few strong points of its young season to date. They’re a top-20 riding team early in the year, and that’s against some decent clearing squads. With Detroit’s thus-far shaky clear, VMI might find some more success in this game.

VMI had been a pretty clean team in the past couple years, but the spike in caused turnovers so far this season has seen the expected rise in penalties committed. With Detroit’s defense mostly moving in the opposite direction, the Titans should have a chance to get more man-up opportunities. Opponents have only converted two of eight so far this year, so it’s not exactly a gimme. VMI has finished only one of five chances to date, so it’s not like the other team is losing a whole lot there.

Big Picture

Detroit should be able to win this one, and pretty easily. VMI is one of the worst teams in the country (possibly even worse than last year’s awful unit), and Detroit is thankfully not in those ranked anymore.

This is no longer a conference game with VMI’s move to the Atlantic Sun, which is an interesting wrinkle, but it takes more than an interesting wrinkle to believe that this is anything other than a blowout. If it’s not, the Mercer game might start to loom as foreshadowing a weaker-than expected Detroit team over the course of the season.

Whether that might still be enough to win the MAAC (Detroit’s regular season needs only to see them finish in the top four in the conference to repeat last year’s feat) remains to be seen. I don’t think it will come up, though.

Predictions

The Titans have the advantage on faceoffs and both settled ends of the field (and probably penalties). The one thing that they’re going to struggle with is the transition game, where VMI is strong preventing opponents from advancing (but on the other side, terrible at advancing it themselves).

• The big picture stats are pretty clear: just about everything is an advantage for Detroit. The one thing that isn’t, clearing, will hurt them a couple times, but never enough to actually see them threatened with a loss.
• Detroit dominates, starting on faceoffs. Damien Hicks wins somewhere in the range of 70-75% of his draws. Those that he fails to win could be 50/50 balls that wing play can’t salvage. Either way, this is a clear advantage.
• Detroit plays multiple goalies. I actually thought this might happen last week and it didn’t, but in a more competitive game. With a likely blowout on the horizon, Matt Holtz will want to see what he has out of some of his keepers. Chris Kelly and Connor Flynn have already seen action, and if eligible (he was suspended for the Michigan game), I think Jason Weber might get a look.
• The Titan offense finds its way, even if we’re getting a bit of fool’s gold against a really bad defense. VMI simply can’t slow anyone down, and Detroit has the weapons to score in a few different ways. The attack should be able to get its scores, but look for the midfield to get more involved after being mostly shut down against Robert Morris.

If this one is close, that’s a bad thing for Detroit. I don’t think it will be. The Titans might give up an early goal, but even if they do, they come immediately back and take early control. UDM coasts to a comfortable victory, 17-5.

Share your predictions, discussion, etc. in the comments.