First win over an in-state rival in program history? Sounds like fun. Now turn around and play one of the sport’s perennial powers a couple days later. Cool? Cool.
Robert Morris
Robert Morris signed the Declaration of Independence. Also: looked nothing like this picture.
Feb. 23, 2014. 1 p.m. EST
Moon Township, Pa.
Live Stats. Video Stream.
@DetroitTitans. @RobertMorrisLax.
Detroit game preview. Gameday Central. .pdf notes.
Robert Morris game preview.
Tempo-Free Profile
The TempoFreeLax.com numbers displayed here are last year’s figures, probably for the second-to-last weekend this year (in a couple weeks, there should be enough data for this year’s digits to be relevant, and hopefully we’ll have worked out all the kinks in retrieving stats from the NCAA’s glitchy website). They are also adjusted for strength of schedule, in which Robert Morris was dinged due to playing in the bad NEC.
| Robert Morris 2013 | |
|---|---|
| Pace | 70.20 (12) |
| Poss% | 46.91 (55) |
| Off. Eff. | 33.17 (16) |
| Def. Eff. | 29.39 (25) |
| Pyth% | 49.79 (31) |
Overall, Robert Morris was just about a dead-center team last year. They finished nationally right at that number in pythagorean win expectation, though the components had some variation to them.
The main thing RMU was bad at last year was possessing the ball. They had the second-worst faceoff unit nationally, and though the clear (No. 22 nationally) and ride (No. 34) were middle-of-the-pack, it wasn’t enough to make up for really poor possession.
The Colonials were actually pretty darn good on offense, failing to reach double-digits just five times in 15 games (two of them wins anyway). Even though they didn’t get the ball a whole lot, they knew what to do with it.
The defense was just above-average, even though it looks worse in non-tempo-adjusted terms. Robert Morris was able to hold off a relatively weak offensive slate.
That pace, however, was pretty fast. RMU was just outside the top ten, and that includes some wild variations. They played two of the slowest games of the year (56 possessions in wins over Quinnipiac and Jacksonville), and some really fast ones (80 possessions just a couple days later in a Quinnipiac rematch, 82 in a win over UMBC).
Offense
The offense is off to a less impressive start than its season performance last year (with a small sample size, to be fair). The Colonials scored seven in a 73-possession (still fast, no worries there) loss to Bellarmine.
Personnel losses were pretty serious in the offseason. Eric Rankel is back (that’s the leading scorer from last season, and he was only a freshman), but Jake Hayes, Dave Morton, Tyler Digby, and Connor Martin are not. That’s scorers 2-4 and No. 7 on the list, some big losses.
Though he didn’t lead the way against Bellarmine (1G 1A on seven shots), expect Rankel to be The Guy this year. The starting attack is rounded out by sophomore Luke Laszkiewicz and freshman Cody Nass, both Canadians (this is a pretty Canuck-heavy squad, not unlike Detroit). Like most players on the roster, Laszkiewicz and Ranekl were but about 2/3 goals, 1/3 assists in their production. Junior Jacob Ruest should factor in heavily, given how important he was to the team last year. He was half-and-half goals/assists.
The starting midfield against Bellarmine was freshman JonPatrik Kealey, sophomore James Rahe (both Canadians), and redshirt senior Taylor Graves. Though it’s a little more rare, Graves was your assisting midfielder last year, the only player with appreciable production to have more helpers than finishes. Kealey and Rahe were the leading scorers against Bellarmine with three points a pop.
Defense
The defense took a stride forward in game one (once again, sample size issues abound there), holding the Knights to 10 goals on 37 possessions – but, like, not doing enough to win the game so whatever.
Juniors Luc Magnan and Joe Scenna are returning starters from last year’s defense. Magnan didn’t start against Bellarmine, but played significantly. Tyler Rankel played mostly LSM last year but got the start on defense, along with redshirt junior Alex Kelly, who missed last season. This was a Detroit-style defense last year, going out to force plenty of turnovers. With more experience, look for that to continue. Given Detroit’s sloppy game against Michigan, it could be effective this afternoon.
Brian Bohn was last year’s most-deployed backup goalie, but that meant he got a grand total of 20 minutes all year, saving three shots and letting three by him. He was good against Bellarmine, making 15 saves and allowing 10 goals.
Special Teams
Bobby Mo was terrible on faceoffs last year, with primary specialists Nick Beaudoin and Tyler Rankel (as noted above, an LSM, so they were probably conceding faceoffs most of the year) not even sniffing .400 on the season. Redshirt sophomore Chris Barney sat out last season, and one must assume it was due to injury, because he appears to be competent on draws. He won 15 of 21 in the first game, picking up 12 of his own ground balls. Look for this to be a strength of Robert Morris’ team over the course of the season.
Robert Morris was a pretty good clearing team last year, and unless the goalie is a liability there, the experience (and Canadian stick skills) on defense and in the midfield should see them continue that performance. The Colonials were just about in the dead center nationally in opponent clearing, which probably means they didn’t ride hard a whole lot.
Last year’s team, on account of that aggressive defense, was very penalty-prone. It seems like something that will continue, so while Detroit has moved away (slightly) from that style of defense, Robert Morris seems to be doubling down. The man-down defense was pretty good (opponents were .260), which I guess makes sense given the amount of in-game practice they got. RMU’s EMO was really good, though, finishing over 50%.
Big Picture
Michigan came out a bit flat against Johns Hopkins yesterday, on the heels of an emotional in-state battle Wednesday night. I think Detroit might do a bit of the same. Even though they have one more day to get their minds right, they also came up on the wrong end Wednesday, so it takes a bit longer to get over.
That said, this is another rivalry game for Detroit, and one that they’ve never won. The Titans are 0-4 against Robert Morris, and will look to change that today. RMU looks to be slightly worse than last year’s team, but it remains to be seen just how much Detroit will drop off with their own personnel losses.
Predictions
On a standard week of preparation, I think I would like Detroit in this one. They have some pieces that really match up well with RMU. However, just a couple days of practice, a road trip, the emotional letdown… it should be a grind.
- The teams are about even on faceoffs. It seems like Robert Morris will be pretty good at the dot this year, but I’m still really high on Damien Hicks even though he struggled last week. Detroit’s wing play doesn’t have Jordan Houtby anymore, but there’s a physical presence that should help intimidate and assist in picking up the ground balls.
- Detroit’s looking pretty turnover-prone on offense this year, and against a team that thrives on creating pressure, I think that could be an issue. While many of Michigan’s forced turnovers were on the ride and I don’t expect Robert Morris to ride that hard, UDM has plenty to clean up.
- Look for more than one Titan goalie to play if things don’t go well. Coach Matt Holtz mentioned Wednesday that Jason Weber is going to compete at the position, so even if Connor Flynn starts, I think he’ll get time.
- Robert Morris is still finding itself offensively, and a softer defensive scheme than Detroit has run in the past seems to be the better path to slowing down the O. That’s a perfect fit for the transition the Titans are going through.
- This should be a fast game, even if Detroit isn’t pushing the tempo as much as in the past. Look for 70-plus possessions.
As noted above, the emotional and preparation factors make this a tough contest for Detroit, especially since Robert Morris is built pretty differently from Mercer and Michigan. While they will certainly come to compete, Detroit can’t quite pull off the win, falling 12-9.
Share your predictions, discussion, etc. in the comments.