Coming off a win against VMI that was troubling (but less so than initially expected, given the Keydets’ subsequent win against Air Force), Detroit looks to right the ship with a return home. Unfortunately, the opponent is a good one in undefeated Bellarmine.
Bellarmine
Fear the stylized Knights!
March 4, 2014. Noon EST
Ultimate Soccer Arenas Pontiac
Gameday Central. Live stats.
@DetroitTitans. @GreatLaxState. @BellarmineLax.
Detroit game preview. .pdf notes.
Tempo-Free Profile
The TempoFreeLax.com numbers displayed here are (finally) those from this season, since there’s enough data nationally that the numbers are pretty meaningful. The figures are also adjusted for strength of schedule, so Bellarmine’s No. 48 slate so far rounds things downwards a bit. That number should be a bit stronger by the end of the season, but for now, just know that Furman and Jacksonville are no great shakes.
| Bellarmine 2013 | |
|---|---|
| Pace | 65.33 (33) |
| Poss% | 52.04 (22) |
| Off. Eff. | 29.42 (38) |
| Def. Eff. | 18.71 (5) |
| Pyth% | 83.98 (11) |
Bellarmine ended up with the best defense in the country last year, and the Knights aren’t far off the mark thus far in 2014. The raw number is better, but the competition (Nos. 42, 56, and 63 offenses faced) make it hard to know just how much of that is smoke and mirrors.
The offense is improved from last year – when it was terrible – but again the early-season jitteriness of the numbers is probably partly to blame. I do think they’ll be out of the bottom ten nationally, but a step to the middle is just that – one step.
Bellarmine is about dead center in pace, and despite being pretty poor on faceoffs is clearing (No. 4 nationally in percentage, with only two fails so far this year) and riding (No. 10 in percentage, albeit with half of their successful rides this season coming against Furman).
Put it all together and you have the No. 11 team in the country in the early going, though I do think that the Knights will slide back slightly when they see some of the tougher teams on the slate, and there’s a wider range of data.
Offense
A pair of freshmen attackmen dominate the offense, at least when it comes to putting the ball in the net. Tucker Ciessau and onetime Michigan commit Austin Shanks have ten and six goals, respectively, with nary a single assist between them. They are pure finishers, and probably do a lot of their work on the dodge – barely more than half of Bellarmine’s total goals this year are assisted.
Midfielders Chad Mitchell and Ryan Scinta provide some balance, with three goals and three assists apiece. They’re also the upperclassman leadership of the offense, a senior and junior, respectively. Mitchell has earned all three starts (Scinta hasn’t started yet this year, though he’s clearly getting significant time), and is shooting less accurately.
Beyond that top group, there are a number of players with similar production – two goals and an assist or vice versa – and they’re all listed at midfield. Clearly, some of them have to play attack, but are not listed as such. Ben Charpentier is the only listed attackman among them, but he’s not listed with any starts, either.
This is an offense that relies on a couple players to get the vast majority of its production, and against Detroit, the service from the midfielders should be slowed down. The titans are strongest at SSDM. That means Ciessau and Shanks might have to create for themselves… but I think they might be able to.
Defense
This is where Bellarmine has excelled the past couple seasons. Goalie Will Haas is certainly not Dillon Ward, but at least in this early going has not been a significant downgrade. Haas is saving .660 of shots faced (Ward was close at .662 last year), but that’s against some offenses that doesn’t have the type of firepower UDM has. This should be his biggest test yet this season.
Fortunately for Haas, he has some really good players to help him out. Sean Joyce started every game last year, and the 6-2, 200-pounder has the body to be an intimidator as a senior – he’s leading the team in caused turnovers thus far this season with six. Junior LSM Bobby Schmitt is one of the country’s most underrated players, and would be a star on a team with more publicity. Colin Hart started six games last year, and the junior has earned the nod in all three thus far this season. Both have five caused turnovers already.
The weak link should be sophomore Shane Healey, who had only three games’ experience (all off the bench) as a freshman. He has all three starts at close defense so far this year, but is clearly not as heralded as his teammates.
At this early juncture in the season, it’s tough – unless the school lists them as such – to know who’s a defensive specialist among the short-sticks. Daniel Zamora appears to be a lock as one (three GBs and a start, but he hasn’t shot the ball yet this season), and he’s getting his first-ever playing time as a junior. The defensive midfielders other than the LSM could be another weakness.
Detroit’s attackmen are very dangerous, but prone to giving the ball away. That’s… scary against a defense that plays the style Bellarmine does. They get out and force plenty of turnovers, like Detroit teams of recent vintage. They have some weak points, but Detroit’s depth on offense might not be good enough to make up for lost one-on-one battles if Detroit’s top lines can’t get the job done.
Special Teams
Bellarmine has not been a good faceoff team this year, but nor was VMI going into last weekend and they suddenly snapped into form. Look for a few players to get run, particularly if the Knights don’t see early success on draws. Senior Stephen Soriano has been most-deployed, and has won .448 on the year. Freshman Tyler Nangle has done slightly better, but on fewer opportunities (the differences at this point can be explained by small sample size). Detroit should be able to win possessions here.
Bellarmine has been an excellent clearing team this far this year, albeit against two really bad teams and one decent team (Robert Morris) that has not emphasized the ride at all. Detroit is capable of riding pretty heavily, and should be able to steal a couple possessions, but I wouldn’t expect the Titans’ transition defense to be a game-changer here.
What could be a game-changer is Bellarmine’s ride, which has been outstanding. That’s a change from last year, so part of the reasoning may be the competition faced (namely Furman), but look for the Knights to break out some tactics against a poor-clearing Detroit team that allow them to steal back the possessions they lose by having no ability to win faceoffs.
Bellarmine has committed slightly more penalties than opponents so far this year, and that should continue. While they’re mostly shutting the opposition down on the man-down (aided by Furman’s 2/10 performance), they’re not so hot themselves at converting with the man advantage.
Big Picture
Detroit’s non-conference is less about landing big trophies to put on the wall and more about tuning up and preparing for conference play. That’s not to say they don’t prioritize the games, but they’re hardly life-and-death. Detroit will want to work through some of their struggles while trying to win the game just as much as they’re trying to do it the other way around.
Bellarmine is an opponent that the Titans see pretty regularly, though the 0-5 mark to date against the Knights points out that they haven’t really solved the opponent quite yet. They’ve played often enough – including scrimmages (as recently as this fall) – to be rivals to a certain extent, but thus far it’s been a one-sided rivalry.
Predictions
Detroit hasn’t quite lived up to expectations yet, while Bellarmine has exceeded its own with a new netminder. That should play out in Pontiac tomorrow.
- Detroit wins the faceoff battle, but only draws even in total possession thanks to Bellarmine’s heavy ride. Damien Hicks should be successful on draws, but if he’s not, Benjamin Gjokaj comes in and improves the performance there immediately.
- Detroit sticks with Jason Weber in goal, giving him a chance to show his stuff against a more talented opponent than VMI. The Titans are still trying to settle on a goalkeeper, and he’ll get his opportunity to seize hold of the gig.
- Detroit’s turnover troubles continue to plague the offense, but when they aren’t giving up the rock, the Titans are far more capable of canning the bean. The shooting accuracy (in terms of shots on goal – the jury is still out on whether Haas can play at an elite level and make that irrelevant) improves in a big way.
- Detroit toys with a bit more of the pressure defense we’ve seen in recent years, helping decide if they should shift back toward that in MAAC play. It’s a move that we’ve seen them make each of the past two-three years, and they’ll at least give it a shot to see if they can pull it out in-conference. I would lean toward “no” without Jordan Houtby and Jamie Hebden in the lineup.
- Detroit’s second midfielder (to date it’s been Scott Drummond, but it really depends who Bellarmine chooses to pole) has a pretty good game. The attack also manages to find some production despite two good close defenders for the Knights.
The way I see this one, Bellarmine’s strengths play right into Detroit’s weaknesses, and that’s not a great recipe for an upset. UDM has the ability to make this a better game than expected, but they haven’t stepped up to that level yet this year. They don’t get there tomorrow, and Bellarmine wins 13-7.
Share your predictions, discussion, etc. in the comments.