Both Michigan and Detroit lost this afternoon. That bodes ill for each of their conference tournament seedings (though both are pretty much locks to make it in).
ECAC
For Michigan, the 1-3 Wolverines have a lone win over Bellarmine, and head-to-head losses to all three programs ahead of them in the league. That locks them in to the four-seed in the ECAC Tournament. Air Force, Fairfield, and Ohio State are all undefeated in the conference (pending today’s AFA/Fairfield game), so the other three seeds are up in the air.
The winner of today’s game – Air Force leads 9-5 in the third quarter – will have the inside track to the 1-seed with Ohio State still having to defeat both teams to take over that mantle. There’s the possibility of a tie (even a three-way tie) as well, so the big picture won’t become any clearer for a while.
MAAC
Since I put together charts of the possible outcomes today, here’s the “Siena wins, Canisius wins” column from Wednesday’s post. I’m still assuming Manhattan beats Monmouth tonight, but that’s no guarantee, even if it’s likely.
| Team | Record | To Play |
|---|---|---|
| Siena | 4-0 | @QU, @Man |
| Canisius | 3-2 | BYE, @Mar |
| Quinnipiac | 3-2 | Siena, BYE |
| Detroit | 2-2 | @Man, @Mon |
| Manhattan | 2-2 | Mon*, UDM, Siena |
| Marist | 1-3 | @Mon, Can |
| Monmouth | 0-4 | Man*, Mar, UDM |
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Detroit currently occupies the fourth slot in the conference, but has the easiest remaining schedule (and boy howdy do those two overtime losses at home to other conference contenders hurt). When they’ve played the same number of games as Canisius, they should end up with the same record – if not better – and the Titans also hold the tiebreaker.
If Quinnipiac beats Siena, the Saints are still almost certain to win the league with a 5-1 record. That could result in a three-way tie for second place, which Quinnipiac would win due to the hypothetical win against Siena, while Detroit would have the head-to-head victory against Canisius and take the three seed. If Quinnipiac doesn’t knock of Siena, the Saints will win the league, Detroit and Canisius will tie for second (with the Titans gett the No. 2 seed due to the head-to-head win), and Quinnipiac needing Marist to not win out to take the No. 4 spot.
All told, as long as UDM takes care of business in the final two games, there does not appear to be a scenario in which they don’t play in the 2/3 game.
Tim, I’m confused about something. I thought that the NCAA required six teams to be recognized as a conference and get an AQ. I thought this was one of the main reasons why the Big Ten courted Johns Hopkins to join as the sixth team. Yet, as best I can tell, the ECAC is getting an AQ this year with just five teams. Can you clear any of this up for me? My Internet research turned up nothing.
When a conference loses teams, it can get a one-year exception to the six-team requirement. If the ECAC had expected to lose both Denver and Loyola in the same year, they probably would have done something else (Hopkins for a year?), but since it’s the last season for the league they didn’t bother.
If the league was still going to exist next year with only five teams, it would not get an auto-bid (unless the exception is two years, but I’m pretty sure it’s just one).