So, uh, Michigan might be slightly worse than last year. Sure, they’re showing signs (a lot of them) of having greater potential, but the Wolverines aren’t showing up on the scoreboard. Ohio State, on the other hand, is a touch better than last year’s team, and that’s shown up on the field.
Michigan surprised by keeping last year’s game close… and it’ll be tougher this time around.
A nut with a body. And a lacrosse stick.
Ohio State
3:30 p.m. EST
April 13, 2013
Michigan Stadium
Free Admission
Live Stats. Live video ($$$).
Will (probably) air on Big Ten Network later in the week.
@UMichLacrosse.
Michigan pregame notes. .pdf notes.
Ohio state pregame notes. .pdf notes.
Tempo-Free Profile
The TempoFreeLax.com numbers displayed here are adjusted for strength of schedule. Ohio State has played a pretty decent slate – just a few places below the national average. That includes a healthy mix of really good teams, really bad teams, and those in between.
| Delaware 2013 | |
|---|---|
| Pace | 65.45 (35) |
| Poss% | 52.64 (11) |
| Off. Eff. | 31.34 (24) |
| Def. Eff. | 27.29 (19) |
| Pyth% | 68.05 (17) |
Ohio State is a pretty darn good – and well-rounded – team. The only thing that doesn’t earn a high national rank is pace. That’s a style matter (not quantitatively good or bad), and the Buckeyes are well within their recent historical range.
Possession is the phase in which OSU is doing the best in comparison to the competition. Faceoffs have been good, clearing has been excellent, and the ride is… shall we say not emphasized.
On either end of the field, the Buckeyes are good but not elite. The offense has been above-average nationally, but not too far in that direction. The defense has been a tick better, and combines with the pace to make the Buckeyes give up very few goals per game.
Offense
Senior attackman Logan Schuss is once again the focal point of the offense, though the Canadian attackman/midfielder is not anywhere near the blistering pace he put up in 2012. In fact, he’s not even that far separated from No. 2 scorer, freshman attack Carter Brown. Sophomore midfielder Jesse King (another Canadian) is the other high-volume scorer. Those three have 36, 29, and 28 points, respectively, with each heavier on goals than assists.
There’s a big dropoff after that point, and sophomore midfielders Turner Evans and David Planning have only 15 and 13 total points, respectively. There’s another precipitous drop after that point, and it’s clear that’s where the real threats end. While a few more players have a handful of points here and there, they aren’t responsible for nearly as much of what the Buckeyes do on that end of the field.
Despite OSU not having any high-scoring players with a whole lot of assists, they’re still assisting on over 60% of their goals. Every player with big involvement in the offense is comfortable scoring or dishing.
When that factor combines with an elite attackman (as Schuss certainly is)… it’s the exact sort of offense that has been shredding Michigan’s D this year.
Defense
Ohio State’s defense has been predicated for a few years on slowing things down and letting the keeper make a lot of stops. That works when you have a goalie like Greg Dutton. His numbers aren’t great this year (just a .519 save percentage), but he’s played some elite offenses like Denver and Loyola, so their sharpshooters are bound to find openings here and there. Dutton’s backup, junior Scott Spencer, has just a little bit of action, but decent numbers. If the game gets ugly, he could see some time between the pipes.
In front of Dutton, the Buckeyes don’t cause a lot of turnovers. That’s their style, preferring to funnel things to a good keeper (and simply prevent the offense from getting off any good shots). Junior Joe Meurer is the star as much as anyone from that system can be as an individual, with 14 caused turnovers to lead the team. Darius Bowling and Dominic Imbordino round out the all-junior crew. Freshman Robbie Haus is another longpole who has started every game, and I believe he’s the pole.
Nothing about Ohio State’s defense looks that impressive on a statistical level, but it all combines to form the country’s second-best stopping unit. Michigan’s offense doesn’t have the experience to probe and find openings (we shall not speak of the performance against Air Force’s zone in the first half), so… that might not be good.
Special Teams
I briefly mentioned faceoffs above, and they’re really good. That’s primarily on account of senior specialist Trey Wilkes, who wins .573 of his draws. He doesn’t pick up a ton of GBs, so if Michigan opts to muck things up and go for 50/50 ground balls, that’s a possibility. The question becomes whether they can win those ground balls.
Ohio State’s ride is excellent, and if you recall the last time these two teams met up, there was a full-field goal for the Buckeyes. It might be wise not to employ a heavy ride. Coming the other way, OSU doesn’t put a whole lot of effort into turning opponents over on the clear – which is aligned with their overall defensive philosophy – so Michigan’s wounds there will likely be self-inflicted, unless the Buckeyes choose to mix things up against an inconsistent clearing team.
Ohio State is a really clean team from a penalty perspective, much like Michigan. They convert on EMOs at a great clip, while allowing opponents decent success, too. Whenever there’s a penalty, it’s going to be tougher than usual to convert for OSU, since Michigan’s man-down is (oddly enough) one of the nation’s best.
Big Picture
Ohio State is good. Michigan is not good. Last year we saw the Wolverines capitalize on a poor shooting day by OSU, and the adrenaline rush of the Battle at the Big House event, etc. to keep things close despite the talent disparity between the squads.
It would be a monumental upset for Michigan to win this game – TempoFreeLax gives the Wolverines less than an 8% chance – and should it happen, it would be a great building block for Team Two to take into the final couple games and the offseason.
Predictions
There are a few areas where Michigan can do well, but just about everything would have to go right to pull the upset.
- Faceoffs won’t be too heavily slanted toward Ohio State. If they are, it will be because the Buckeyes dominate on 50/50 ground balls in that phase of the game (and likely every other phase where there are 50/50 ground balls, too).
- Some of Michigan’s turnover-prone youngsters will clean things up a bit. The unforced turnovers won’t plague Michigan, particularly because this isn’t a team that puts the pressure on a lot. However, forced passes will still result in a few bad plays.
- Logan Schuss had three goals and two assists last year, but it took him 13 shots to get those five points. He’ll be more efficient this time around, since I seem to remember him (uncharacteristically) hitting several pipes last year.
- This could be Gerald Logan’s worst statistical game of the year. The Buckeyes do a pretty good job assisting on most of their goals, and they have guys who can score in a variety of ways. Whether it’s bombing from the outside or creating openings on the crease, they’ll find ways to score.
- A Michigan player that hasn’t seen a ton of action yet this year – likely an outside shooter – will have his biggest game of the season. Whether that’s just taking a lot of shots (most likely) or actually converting into goals, somebody new will step up. Or just Mike Hernandez, 50/50.
The Wolverines have been up and down, and just when it seems like they’re really down, they surprise and keep a game close against an opponent who should outmatch them (unfortunately, they surprise in the other direction when it seems like they’re in position to play somebody close). This is a game that they’ll ride an emotional high to keep things closer than expected until the fourth, but I have a hard time believing they’ll seriously threaten the upset. Ohio State wins, 13-7.
Share your predictions, discussion, etc. in the comments.