Here it is: Michigan’s best chance of the year to come away with a win. Even though High Point has exceeded early expectations (already picking up a win and coming close in a couple other games), this is one that Michigan has to expect to win.
High Point
No Panther in the logo :-/
7:00 p.m. EST March 5, 2013
High Point, N.C.
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High Point’s expectations were pretty low coming into the year, and though they’ve already exceeded some of those, they haven’t done it against the best competition.
Towson (whom the Panthers defeated) looks one or two steps ahead of totally hapless, along with Delaware, Jacksonville, and St. Joseph’s in that range. While Air Force and Bellarmine are middle-tier opponents (trending upward for the Knights, in the other direction for the Falcons), HPU won’t really see top competition until Brown in a couple weeks.
The question of course, becomes where Michigan stands vis-a-vis those other programs.
| High Point 2013 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| High Point | Opponents | ||
| Faceoff Wins | 68 | Faceoff Wins | 58 |
| Clearing | 84-95 | Clearing | 103-118 |
| Possessions | 178 | Possessions | 187 |
| Goals | 41 | Goals | 62 |
| Offensive Efficiency | .230 | Offensive Efficiency | .332 |
High Point is doing pretty well on faceoffs, but thanks to boatloads of clearing attempts by opponents (likely a product of turnovers and a poor shooting percentage by the Panthers), there’s a slight possession deficit. Things are close enough that you can call it right about even.
It’s the efficiency where HPU is really lacking. The offense is pretty poor (that mark would be third-to-last nationally based on 2012’s adjusted numbers, and HPU ain’t facin’ no murderer’s row so far). The defense would have been middle-of-the-pack or worse, based on last year’s numbers (and again, these are unadjusted, so things might be worse than they look).
Offense
the offense has been a two-man show to date for High Point. Canadian freshman Dan Lomas has been strictly a finisher from the attack, racking up 13 goals and two assists (both against Jacksonville in HPU’s most recent outing). Sophomore linemate Matt Thistle (a Manhattan transfer who only appeared in four games for the Jaspers last spring) has used balance to get his 15 points, distributing and scoring on his own. He’s your point guard.
Outside of those two, there’s a big dropoff in productivity. Redshirt frosh midfielder Mitchell Dupere is third on the team in scoring, but that’s good for just five points to date, and it’s taken him 21 shots to get there. He’s a bomber that hasn’t seen a whole lot of success yet. Bucky Smith and Michael Messenger, also midfielders, are right in Dupere’s range, too.
This is an attack-driven offense to date, but it could simply be due to a dearth of scoring ability in the midfield just as much as it’s any design of the offense. Adam Seal has been the third starter on attack, but his scoring line to date consists of just one goal and one assist (Dupere started one game on attack, rather than his typical role in the midfield).
Michigan didn’t have the shutdown defender to stop Garrett Thul, but against a team that doesn’t have a Thul and still relies on a very limited group of scorers, you’re bound to see much more success. The key is forcing tougher shots – because Gerald Logan has shown he can stop those (and some easy looks, too).
Defense
The High Point defense has been non-terrible, and Michigan fans know that’s something to celebrate out of a first-year program.
Redshirt freshmen Jeff Hale and Harris Levine have been starters, along with sophomore Pat Farrell (a Scranton transfer) and redshirt junior Garrett Swaim (who lettered two years at Jacksonville). The HPU roster doesn’t differentiate between close defense and LSM, but given that none of those players have notched a single shot attempt or assist on the year, it might not be relevant, at least from the standpoint of going forward with the ball.
Swaim and Farrell (the grizzled vets of the unit) lead the defensive unit in caused turnovers with four apiece – this is clearly not a defense based on taking the ball away from the opponents.
In net, redshirt sophomore Austin Geisler – a Virginia transfer who was actually supposed to be in the mix for serious playing time at UVa – has played all but a few minutes between the pipes. He’s been pretty good, saving .585 of shots faced. His defense seems designed to protect him a bit, not a bad strategy for a young program with a high-caliber goalie.
This battle should be a mirror image of the other side of the field. Can Michigan’s offensive players generate good enough opportunities to beat a pretty good goalkeeper? Early indications – against by far the nation’s toughest schedule, to be fair – are that it will be a struggle, especially pending Thomas Paras’s health.
Special Teams
Faceoffs have been split between two players, with Freshman Jamie Piluso taking about 70% of the draws and winning .545 of them. Sophomore Chris Davila, a junior college transfer, has taken nearly all the rest, and is only winning at a slightly lower clip. 541. With Brad Lott rounding into form a bit, there should be some battles.
The High Point clear has been pretty good, especially given the youth of the program (Michigan’s clear was brutal last year), and is not a liability, to say the least. The ride has earned a few possessions here and there, and could be a weapon against a similarly youthful team like Michigan.
In the penalty department, High Point is averaging nearly five no-nos per game, with opponents at about three and a half. Michigan has been (until the Army game) one of the least-penalized programs in the country two years running. High Point is also awful at converting on the man-up (as a relative neophyte to the game, that seems like an area where sheer talent, particularly outside shooting, can make as much a difference as anything), while allowing opponents to score nearly 40% of the time. This should be a true area of advantage for the Wolverines.
Big Picture
Every game is huge as an opportunity for Win One, and this is probably the Wolverines’ best shot of the year. They’re playing a program that’s equally new to lacrosse (Michigan actually announced almost a year later than the Panthers to start play a year earlier, giving them far less time to build the program), and one that should be vulnerable.
Whereas a close loss to Johns Hopkins could have counted as a moral victory (still registering as 0% of a win in the Actual Victory ledger), there shall be no moral victories in this one. It’s a game the Wolverines should – and must – win.
Predictions
The stakes are set, and it looks like this is one of the few games on the year where U-M can not only match, but exceed the opponent’s personnel in a number of areas.
- High Point ends up with a slight advantage in faceoffs. Brad Lott is starting to come around now that he’s getting the chance to practice regularly, but wing play, chemistry, etc. will all play a factor. High Point happens to have a couple pretty good faceoff men, and they should do their thing.
- Michigan scores at least one man-up goal. The Wolverines have converted thrice already this year, and should have a few opportunities against what is a poor man-down.
- Gerald Logan records his second-best save percentage of the year. It would be silly to assume he can outdo the insane .676 (on 37 SOGs!) that he accomplished against Army, but High Point doesn’t have the offensive talent yet to challenge as much as some of U-M’s other opponents. a .633 mark against Penn State is the number to beat.
- Michigan sees its first official hat trick of the year(!) (Willie Steenland recorded one against Marquette in an exhibition). My money is on either Peter Kraus or Mike Hernandez, with Kyle Jackson also in the mix.
As mentioned above, this is a game Michigan should win. That’s because the Wolverines field the better team. Accordingly, I would be remiss not to predict victory, no? It won’t be a walkover like last year’s game against Mercer, but Team Two records Win Two, U-M emerges with a 14-8 victory.
Given that this is a home game for High Point, and that they have a high-caliber goalie, I don’t see them giving up 14 goals (which they haven’t done so far this year to anyone), nor it being a 6 goal spread. I’ll say Michigan 11-8 (or 9-6; 10-7) over High Point.
I may be a little off-base on the pace, but I just get this feeling that the two teams will both have quite a few turnovers, leading to transition opportunities and a faster (higher-scoring) game in general.
Tim, your line of reasoning is entirely possible as well. Given the parity, upsets, and crazy nature of the season so far, anything is possible. Needless to say, it’s going to be an interesting year!
Given the inexperience of both teams, I really don’t know what to expect here. Between Marquette and Army, and the fact that this is a road game, I wouldn’t be surprised to see either team run away with this.
This could be the beginning of the end for Coach 1 of Team 2. HP has won or kept every game close. UM has done neither. I know you want the state to gain a good representation, but come on.
I… can’t tell if you’re serious. (and I hope to god not).
High Point has lost a game by 10 goals, and a game by seven goals. They’ve played a tissue-soft schedule outside of Bellarmine – by the way, a common opponent that Michigan lost to by a closer score than than HPU did. Has HPU played #5 Johns Hopkins? #13 Penn State? Hell, even #38 Army? Disregarding the common opponent the best team High Point has played is significantly worse than the worst that Michigan has played.
Michigan might still lose this game, sure, but to act like High Point has outplayed Michigan to date this year is beyond comedy.
Somebody needs to “come on,” but methinks it’s you.
Oh jeeze, I didn’t even notice that you predicted John Paul will get fired. I don’t even know where to start with that.
Wayne, your other inaccuracies aside, also keep in mind that HP is in Year 1 of competition, but Year 2 as a program.
I think Wayne is right the Michigan coach will be out after this year. Marquette and HP have performed better with just a few games into the season and it is the coach and how they started their programs. You can see the difference between the rookie coach at Michigan and the veteran coaches in their recruits and how they have had their teams perform.
US Lacrosse and the Nobel Committee hopefully have both learned their lessons.
Enough recriminations though…on to fixing the problem.
Does the AD have the stones to do it now?
Who is available?
The day after the o-fer more likely.
Petro (not likely)
Campbell from Middlebury(great coach and leader)
Byrne (won’t have to acclimate to the weather)
The asst. at Princeton (rising star)
Others?
(In house promotion ?…don’t even go there)
Anybody speculating, advocating, or predicting that John Paul will get fired is so far disconnected from reality that I don’t even know how to respond.
Agreed
You’re disconnected.
Section III, the coaches of HP and Marquette were veteran assistant coaches, but are in fact, rookie (or second year) head coaches. Michigan’s coach was a veteran club coach and is now in his second year as a varsity head coach.
As to how the programs started, some of the major donations that came in for Michigan stipulated that they go varsity right away as opposed to waiting a year. So without those donations, there would not be a varsity team, so it’s a moot point.
CKLaxalum
you raise an interesting point…why would ‘major donations’ insist on going varsity right away?
did the coach buck that request?
Wayne, any number of possible reasons (that would all amount to speculation on my part). Perhaps the donor(s) has a son/grandson on the current team? Maybe the donor(s) is older and didn’t want to wait a year or two (and possibly not live to see it)? Maybe the donor was ‘impatient’ and tired of waiting (people have been waiting for this for many years)? Maybe the donor(s) wanted the team to be ready for a soon-to-be college freshman?
Why would the coach buck the request…and possibly not have a D1 team? Bottom line, in a few years, it won’t matter whether a team started right away or waited a year.
Laxalum.
thanks for the info. maybe the blogger here knows.
This is such a stupid conversation I don’t know where to begin. JP is the reason UM got to varsity status. He is a very good coach, but is heading a team that is either freshmen or club players. He needs (and deserves) four years to bring Michigan up to a true varsity level. UM went varsity right away in part to reward the club players like Yealy who put in a ton of effort to elevate the club program to a level where it made sense to go the varsity route. Whether or not it was the best decision to go varsity right away rather than transition over a year or two is a moot point right now. Let’s focus on what this young and still partial club team is doing right and wrong on the field, but anyone laying blame on JP does not understand lacrosse.
It was not a “decision,” really. Without elevating immediately, a lot of the donation money wasn’t coming in right away. Michigan’s choices were to elevate immediately or not make any progress toward a D-1 program.
No excuse for the loss to High Point. High Point has 30 freshman on their roster. So you can stop using the “young and still partial club team excuse” for Michigan.
High Point has 18 freshmen on the roster. Michigan has (drumroll, please)… 18 freshmen on the roster.
Try again.
Ok, I’ll try again. I included redshirt freshman. Either way. Still absolutely no excuse for the loss to High Point. Not worth the drumroll.
Freddy – they didn’t play last season, so all of their sophomores would be redshirt freshmen, right? That’s pretty misleading.
Freddy, it’s overdramatic to say “absolutely no excuse for the loss”. UofM and HP are two pretty evenly matched teams at this point. Two second year programs. Michigan with the advantage of players with a year of actual D1 competition. High Point with the advantage of a (transfer) goalie (from a top school) with 2 years of previous D1 playing experience.
Not trying to be dramatic. Michigan has more talent. Much higher ranked class of recruits. Simply expect better results versus High Point.
But isn’t it a little dramatic to say that about any loss in any sport? Teams with more talent lose all the time. Yale lost to St. John’s already this year, and Duke has 4 losses (albeit to mostly good teams, but I’m sure they had more talent than Penn). Michigan lost to Penn State in bball this year, and Kansas lost to TCU.
We lost to High Point, on the road, by 3 goals in a game that was tied or a 1 point game until the very end. And just because our frosh class has more talent doesn’t mean our entire team does. I don’t know enough about HPU’s upperclassmen to opine on that, but having an experiences goalie versus a rookie (albeit a good one) can make a 3 goal difference by itself.
If Hobart watches any UM film…they’ll score the max their coach allows and UM may get skunked.
Way to be positive, Wayne.
Once again, no drama intended. I believe everyone expected a better effort and result.