Detroit has rebounded from a really rough start to the season (including a couple losses that shouldn’t have been) to win two of three, both victories coming in impressive fashion and the lone loss in overtime. This team is playing well – and this one’s for high stakes.
“Saints” as in “Saint Bernards,” rather than “canonized people.” I can dig it.
Siena
1 p.m. EST
April 13, 2013
Loudonville, N.Y.
Live Stats. Live video ($$$).
@DetroitTitans
Pregame Notes.
Tempo-Free Profile
The TempoFreeLax.com numbers displayed here are adjusted for strength of schedule. Siena has played one of the easiest schedules in the country (No. 54 out of 63), so they’re definitely at one extreme. Detroit is right within that range.
| Siena 2013 | |
|---|---|
| Pace | 73.18 (6) |
| Poss% | 51.55 (16) |
| Off. Eff. | 28.10 (44) |
| Def. Eff. | 33.02 (46) |
| Pyth% | 42.39 (42) |
Siena does one thing well, a few things poorly, and it all averages out to being a below-average but not terrible squad.
The good thing that the Saints do? Possess the rock. They do a great job holding the ball more than opponents, which is generally a good thing for teams that are otherwise outmanned by the competition.
Oddly, a team that has a below-average offense and defense speeds things up quite a bit. It would make more sense to slow things down and hope for a little randomness. But what do I know? Barn-burners that were high-scoring close losses to Hobart, St. John’s, Hartford, and Jacksonville could have swung the other way with fewer possessions.
As for that offense and defense, Siena hasn’t played many good teams, so those numbers are adjusted down because of competition, but… when you’re 4-7, “adjusting for the competition” doesn’t really apply. If you’re not good enough to beat the poor teams you’re playing, you’re just not good.
Offense
The Saints had a really good offense last year, but they lost Bryan Neufeld (it’s not often that a MAAC team has a player drafted by the MLL), Chris Roth, and Chris D’Alberti. Only Neufeld was a big part of the offense, but it’s somewhat collapsed without him.
Sophomore midfielder Conor Prunty has borne the majority of the scoring load in Neufeld’s replacement. He’s doing most of his work through goals of his own (20), though he’s putting up a fair number of assists as well (10). Classmate and linemate Nate Barry isn’t far behind from a scoring perspective, but he’s more distributor with 13 goals and 16 assists. Redshirt sophomore attack Richie Hurley is not far behind with 26 points on 15 goals and 11 assists.
The next three scorers are almost strictly finishers, with a combined 18 assists among their 70 points. Junior attack Colin Clive, senior attack Danny Martinsen, and redshirt junior midielder Kyle Curry are the dangermen there.
After that group of six starters, there’s an enormous dropoff in production.
Defense
The Siena defense looks like it’s been banged up all year. Senior Joe Ednie leads the team in caused turnovers with 11, despite only starting seven games (and missing one completely). Classmate Mike Generi has only played in eight games – and started five – and is second with 10 CTs.
Nobody else on the team has more than six CTs – that’s sophomore two-way midfielder Ryan Mallon – but three players are tied with five apiece. Longpoles Erik Casparius, Adam Hall, and Jake Kissick – a senior, junior, and sophomore, respectively – are in that tier.
In goal, it’s been almost all senior Matt Sharp. He’s saving .522 of shots faced and allowing 12.12 goals per game – both mediocre numbers (though the goals/game mark is inflated by Siena’s fast pace of play).
Special Teams
Faceoffs have been a huge area of success for the Saints. Sophomore Casey Dowd has won .542 of draws taken – and is piccking up more than half the ground balls himself. If there’s one area that has single-handedly kept the Saints from totally collapsing this year, it’s been Dowd. A few backups have taken just a couple draws, and ranged from ok to blah.
Siena’s clear is pretty poor. They’re No. 53 at 81.66%. They make some of that up with a middle-of-the-pack ride. Still, this is not a strength of the team. They’re a great possession squad… that’s bad at two-thirds of the possession game. That speaks to the job Dowd is doing.
Siena takes a lot of penalties (that’s saying nothing when the opponent will be Detroit, of course), and they let opponents convert a lot of them – nearly 40%. On the flipside, Siena is actually converting on EMOs at an even better clip. You don’t want this squad to get man-up on you – though that’s something that will certainly happen to Detroit.
Big Picture
If Detroit wins this game – especially on the road – it will definitely be an upset. While this is the worst Siena team of the past four years (by a wide margin), Detroit isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire themselves. However, an upset may be just what they need. The Titans are playing their best ball of the year over the past three games, while Siena has been up and down all year. That’s mostly down, and just about as bad as Detroit has been.
Most importantly, if the Titans pull off the victory, they’ll be in very good position to make the MAAC Tournament. While that’s not exactly the loftiest goal for a team that returned just about everybody, it’s a great recovery from how the season started. It also would mean a damn good chance to win six of the final seven regular-season games, and enter the postseason on a hot streak.
Predictions
Siena, of course, is riding a long streak of winning the conference regular season – every year since Detroit has existed, much less been a member of the MAAC. The Saints have a bit to play for themselves.
- Faceoffs might get ugly… or they might not. I think Siena’s Dowd will have a great day on draws, but it’s when I make such predictions that the Titans seem to surprise with a near-.500 mark. It’s safer to assume he’ll be good.
- Siena assists on just over half their goals, a decent number. I think they’ll outdo that number against a Detroit team that gives up most of its goals assisted.
- The Titans will counteract some of that by forcing a lot of turnovers. Siena is pretty sloppy, and Detroit makes teams like that pay…
- That also means a lot of penalties for Detroit (as it always does).
- Alex Maini will not lead Detroit in scoring – and that’s a good thing. Since he’s moved from the focal point of the offense to an important cog in the machine, Maini seems to be playing better, and the offense is executing better, too. That’s a good thing.
Detroit is on a roll, but I still have a tough time seeing them having what it takes to overcome a semi-dominant possession team. Siena is bad in both ends of the field, but great in owning the ball. That’s not a great matchup for UDM. It’s close but no cigar, and Siena takes home the 13-11 win.
Share your predictions, discussion, etc. in the comments.
You were almost right on… Another very tough loss for the Titans… AJ was All American on some stops and kept the Titans in it, and then looked like he got fooled on some because they looked eye high and saves he ususally makes… Tom Sibel played well considering Troy got dinged up and they were without Joe Maclean with a concussion… Long bus trip, Titans a bit shorthanded and they fell short…It was a very good effort, and on a neautral field, the Titans handle Siena… They need to get in the MAAC Tourney with a win over Canisius and they could do some damage…Not having Shane Adams and Nick Garrippa hurts in the depth area but other teams are facing adversity as well… These upcomming games with Michigan and Marquette will help get them ready for their challenges….They need to play desperate and with focused fury or they will be home instead of the play offs… They can do it…Some real growth in some players is happening and that’s a good thing.