Detroit Preview: Quinnipiac

Detroit has started the year with a couple games against tough opposition, and things lighten up a bit with today’s trip to the Pittsburgh area. However, Robert Morris is no pushover, either.

Quinnipiac

This bobcat is looking extra-fierce

11 a.m. EST March 2, 2013
Titan Field, Detroit – free admission.
Live stats. GLS Tweet.
Gameday Central from UDM. UDM site preview.

Tempo-Free Profile

Quinnipiac is one of the few teams out there that played its only game thus far last weekend. That means we don’t know a whole lot about whether the Bobcats are any good or if Brown is bad. Given that Brown was about a .500 team in pythagorean win expectations last year and Quinnipiac was one of the worst teams in the nation… well, either one team got a lot better or the other got a lot worse.

So the teams were about even in possession, and all things considered, about even in goals. There’s not a whole lot separating these two units in this game, and until we have more data on each of them, it remains a mystery.

Offense

Attackmen Brendan Wilbur (3G), and Michael Sagl and Dylan Webster (2G, 1A apiece) led the team’s offense against Brown. Oddly, Webster is listed as an attackman, but is the starting faceoff specialist, as well. Additional offense came from the midfielders (one point each for Chris Messina, Basil Kostaras, Matt Diehl, and Pat Mulligan), but this is clearly an attack-driven offense through one game.

Of course, whether that continues depends in part upon how teams defend them going forward. Coming into the season, I would have said Detroit’s first-team close D was a matchup strength, but that hasn’t borne out across the lineup quite yet. This should be another chance to prove them.

Defense

The starting close defense against Brown was J.B. Marston, Greg Pendergast, and Chris Kendall. That’s a junior, sophomore, and freshman respectively, so they’re an inexperienced unit, that’s for sure. It appears as though PAt Mulligan is primarily a defensive midfielder, despite his goal against Brown. This early in the season, it’s tough to tell.

In net was Gill Connors, who made 20 saves(!) while allowing only seven goals. Either Brown’s shooters were totally incompetent or the junior is doing some Gerald Logan-like standing on his head to start the year.

Special Teams

Webster won 12 of 19 faceoffs against Brown, and with two straight years of better-than-.500 win percentages, it’s safe to say he’s just pretty good at it. I’m of the opinion that Detroit will hover around .500 this year, but given that they’re facing some who has a history of success, expect them to be just below that mark tomorrow.

Quinnipiac’s clear was kinda bad against a Brown team that didn’t seem to be any good at much of anything else. This Detroit team, for all its emphasis on forcing turnovers, hasn’t been a heavy-riding team this year, but it will be interesting to see if they can change that against a squad that struggled in its only game to date.

The penalty game, as usual, should result in the Titans taking more penalties than Quinnipiac does. However, QU did play a dirtier game than Brown (three penalties to one), so maybe UDM can clean things up a bit. Brown was 2/3 converting EMO opportunities while Quinnipiac failed to convert on their only chance.

Big Picture

Well, I’ll keep saying this until it actually happens: Detroit needs a win in the worst way. The Titans have been close, and they’ve been not so close. They’ve been dominated, and they’ve fallen just short. Regardless of how it’s happened, each game so far has resulted in a loss.

Quinnipiac was one of the games that the Titans managed to come away with a W last year, and doing the same this year could help get the season turned around with conference play fast approaching (and a mediocre Bellarmine team up next).

Predictions

Each loss that piles up is more and more frustrating. There’s not a whole lot of data out there to determine if this Quinnipiac team is similar to the one that gave UDM a victory last year.

• Like he did last year, Dylan Webster will take home greater than 50% of the faceoffs. However, this UDM team appears to have improved in the metric, and things will be better than last year’s 37% effort against him.
• The UDM offense still looks stagnant, outside of the top contributors. Shayne Adams and Alex Maini have good days, how the unit performs as a whole depends on who else can step up.
• The defense comes to life in the first game at Titan Field this year. Last season, UDM forced turnovers on 27.5% of opponent possessions. This year, they’re moving along at a 25.8% clip. Expect them to move back toward last year’s number.

I like Detroit in this game, but I felt the same way about the Titans last week and they were mostly uncompetitive against Robert Morris. Home field advantage can be big in Division-1 lacrosse, though, especially for a team that has struggled in early road games. A home field advantage can, at the very least, be a big emotional boost. Playing the worst opponent to date doesn’t hurt, either. Titans win, 13-11.