Detroit Preview: Navy

The season is still young, so we don’t know a whole lot about teams that we didn’t know coming in. Navy smoked hapless VMI to start the year, so the early returns are bound to look good. Can Detroit change that?

Navy

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7 p.m. EST Feb. 15, 2013
Annapolis, Md.
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One game of numbers is more like a boxscore than a look at the full stats, so keep in mind when digesting these numbers that VMI was the sixth-worst team in the country last year despite an excellent ability to possess the ball.

Not only did Navy dominate what has been a solid possession team in VMI (which, to be fair lost Stephen Robarge), but they were ruthlessly efficient on both sides of the ball. Is it a product of competition faced, or are the Midshipmen for real? We won’t know until we have a few more games of data.

For now, take a look at their status coming into the year, which gives the expectation of some serious improvement.

Offense

This year’s leading scorer to date is not any of those I pointed to in the season preview, but rather junior attackman Austin Heneveld, who was a very small role player last year. Again, with one game of data you never know how much that’ll hold up, but he’s at least one to watch as a distributor.

Last year’s leading scorer, fellow junior attack Sam Jones, was second on the day (tied with midfielder Erik Hoffstedt, who also notched three goals and an assist), so it’s not all new faces. Given the nature of the blowout win over VMI, plenty of depth players got opportunities – twelve different players scored for the Middies – so it’s wait-and-see what endures.

Defense

Although the defense was hit hard by graduation, Navy didn’t miss a beat in the season opener. Nolan Hickey got the start between the pipes before giving way in the final frame to his backups. He allowed four goals and saved five shots.

The close defense was a handful of fresh faces, but LSM Pat Kiernan picked up his 2012 form, leading the team (and game) with six ground balls.

Special Teams

This is where things get questionable. VMI has always been really bad on offense and really bad on defense. For Navy to dominate in the 6v6 is no surprise. However, despite the Keydets’ general ineptitude over the years, the one area they’ve been successful is on faceoffs. Navy’s Sean Reilly dominated there to the tune of 13/18 before his backups made things look a little more even than they actually were over the course of the game. Has VMI run out of magic on draws, or is Navy that good? It shouldn’t matter against a weak UDM unit, of course.

In the transition game, VMI has traditionally been a decent clearing squad and one that doesn’t focus on the ride. That makes Navy’s nice day on the clear expected, but not VMI’s awful 55.5% performance.

Big Picture

Detroit has been thisclose to a breakthrough season over the last couple years, and the lack of a non-conference “signature win” (they got it in-conference against Siena two years ago) has been one thing that has helped hold them back. This is another opportunity to get it.

UDM site preview. A Lax Links post isn’t going to happen, so Ryan Callaghan’s honor as MAAC rookie of the week can go here. Navy preview and weekly release.

Predictions

Detroit hung tough last weekend against an Ohio State squad that I think will end up better than Navy this season. The key to this week is finishing.

• Faceoffs are a likely strength for Navy, and a known weakness (until proven otherwise) for Detroit. The Middies should have a big advantage there.
• For all their offensive success against VMI, Navy didn’t play the cleanest game, with 16 turnovers (.340 per offensive possession). Detroit has been a very aggressive team over the years, and that should allow them to not only get some possession, but create some transition scoring opportunities, as well.
• Offensive cohesion was the single biggest problem for Detroit last year, and though a coordinator change has helped that, this is still only the second game in a new system. Navy’s defense is relatively wet behind the ears as well, so capitalizing on opportunities that inevitably arise is the key.

I was fooled last year by Detroit, and although I think they’ll be improved overall this season, I have to see a win like this get pulled off to believe it. Detroit can hang with teams like this, but that winner mentality to finish games is something that develops over the years, and UDM is still a young program. The Titans carry a 7-6 lead into halftime, but Navy prevails, 13-10.