Fresh off a disappointment in Jacksonville, the Titans return home to take on their second-easiest opponent of the year. Playing Manhattan (even with the Jaspers riding a wave off momentum of – gasp! – a win) should be an opportunity to get things moving in the right direction.
What is a Jasper?
Manhattan
11 a.m. EST
April 6, 2013
Titan Field (Directions)
Live Stats. No live audio or video – one of maybe three schools in the country that doesn’t even have a PPV option.
@DetroitML – caution: has not tweeted yet, no idea if it ever actually will.
Ticket information.
Detroit pregame notes. .pdf format.
Gameday Central.
Tempo-Free Profile
The TempoFreeLax.com numbers displayed here are adjusted for strength of schedule. Mahattan has played the No. 59 schedule in the country (fifth from last)… and has managed to put together a 2-8 record. That’s how you become the third-worst team in all the land (and you get that high by beating second-worst Wagner earlier this week).
| Manhattan 2013 | |
|---|---|
| Pace | 59.50 (61) |
| Poss% | 43.53 (63) |
| Off. Eff. | 26.50 (49) |
| Def. Eff. | 38.76 (58) |
| Pyth% | 12.07 (61) |
Manhattan’s statistical profile is a little weird: Usually bad teams – and especially those that can’t get possession of the ball – typically have a really fast pace, because the opponent is scoring so frequently. That’s not the pace for the Jaspers, who manage to slow things down… but still get scored on a lot.
The defense is really bad, but the offense is non-terrible. Also non-good, but non-terrible. Pouring in goals is the way to beating this team, because they’ll get a couple of their own if they ever get their hands (sticks) on the ball.
It’s that last part that’s the trouble. They can’t win faceoffs – worst in the country by more than 5% – and they can’t clear. They actually employ a pretty heavy ride, which both gives them some of their opportunities offensively, but also makes for fast-breaks for opponents.
Offense
The offense is not totally inept, so I’ll spend a bit of time breaking it down. There’s actually a pretty even spread between the top scorers, as well.
Leading the way is junior attack Ryan Payton with 13 goals and eight assists. The second-leading scorer is a bigger deal in the grand scheme of things, however, since he’s the finisher. Despite missing a game, senior midfielder Tyler Jarvis has 18 goals to go with two assists. Junior midfielder Marcel Godino just just behind them with a split that’s more Payton than Jarvis. He has 10 goals and eight assists.
Junior midfielder Brett Madarasz is the team’s assist leader with 10 to go along with five goals of his own. Junior midfielder Patrick Hodapp (9-3) and senior attack Brian McGrath (8-4) have 12 points apiece to round out double-digit scorers.
As you can see, this is a midfield-heavy offense. There’s a lot of rotation in there – partially because hardly anyone on the team has played in all 11 Jaspers games this year – and that levels things out. Jarvis and Madarasz are your finisher and feeder du jour, and both would have better numbers but for missing a game apiece, too. The rest of the lineup is balanced in its output.
Defense
The goalie situation at the beginning of the year looked settled, with returning starter Rich Akapnitis between the pipes. However, he has ceded the position to sophomore Michael Wiatrak, who has been much more effective, saving .519 of shots faced despite allowing more goals per game than his fellow keeper. That save percentage is pretty impressive given the rubber he’s facing – that’s a poor man’s Gerald Logan right there.
Sophomore Max Kerber and junior Dan McGreevy have both started almost every game (McGreevy came off the bench once) and lead the team in caused turnovers. I get the impression that McGreevy is an LSM, but the roster doesn’t differentiate.
No other defensive player has started more than five games(!!!!!). Whether that’s due to injury or ineffectiveness is beyond me – likely a blend of both, depending on which person we’re talking about – but it’s fair to say that defensive players other than the main two will be the weak points.
Special Teams
This is an awful faceoff team. Junior defenseman Sean McMahon has been the primary specialist – likely conceding the draw to play defense because the Jaspers are so bad in that phase of the game that it’s not worth trying to win them. The second-most deployed FOGO is freshman Matt Ruquet, who – despite 76 draws – is winning an impressively bad .276 of them. Senior Jon Crean and junior Greg Smith have fared a little better (Smith is actually winning well over half his draws, despite taking the fifth-most on the team). Most of Smith’s succes came in the most recent game against hapless Wagner, so either he’s padding the stats against bad opposition or the Jaspers have finally found something that works.
Manhattan – which you generally expect from poor teams – is bad on the clear. 58th nationally at 78.48% bad. Detroit is an aggressive defensive team, but only a semi-aggressive riding team (kind of a weird disconnect in styles there), and they should ramp up the pressure against a team that will make tons of mistakes. On the other side of the ball, the disparity is even greater: Manhattan rides better than UDM, which clears terribly. Should be a lot of up-and-down and some transition opportunities.
Manhattan’s man-up and man-down are equally mediocre (but mediocre is a good thing for a team that’s pretty bad at most everything else).
Big Picture
This is where that overtime loss to Jacksonville really stings: win that one, and this game is an opportunity to all-but lock up a bid to the MAAC conference tournament. As is, it becomes a must-win to stay alive in that hunt.
Detroit has a chance to close the year on a strong run (though I’m conceding a loss to Siena next week), and this game can help kick-start it. Despite the loss to Jacksonville last week, the result was a sign of progress, and this game can show that wasn’t a mirage.
Predictions
Manhattan is not VMI-bad, but the Jaspers are bad nonetheless.
- Alex Maini settles into the leadership role on the offense, and doesn’t try to force things (as some have commented he may be doing). The rest of the offense is rounding into form, and any player can step up and be a focal point on any given day.
- As mentioned above, it’s a tough riding day. That should be compounded by cool temperatures (it’s supposed to reach the mid-50s tomorrow, but this is an 11 a.m. game), which make for sloppier sticks at times.
- Detroit wins more than half of faceoffs. I’ve promised a couple times that I wouldn’t be predicting this anymore, but the Jaspers are just terrible on draws. I reserve the right to take this back if Smith really is just that much better than those who have been starting over him all year.
- Despite the failed clears, this will be a slower game than expected. Detroit doesn’t need to force things in the 6-on-6 to prevent Manhattan from scoring, and although they won’t back down defensively, it won’t be a fiesta of caused turnovers, either. Against one of the worst-shooting, most turnover-y offenses around, they won’t need ’em.
So Manhattan is really bad. They aren’t VMI bad, but bad nonetheless. The Titans should be able to cruise in this one. That was the case against VMI, when they let off the gas early, and let the Keydets get close enough to keep things respectable (but never close enough to win). Detroit defends its home field in a 10-6 win.
Share your predictions, discussion, etc. in the comments.