Detroit Preview: Canisius

Do or die time for the Titans. Put up or shut up.

Canisius

Fear the Griffin!

Noon EST
April 27, 2013
Titan Field (Directions).
Ticket info.
Live Stats. No video
@DetroitTitans
Pregame Notes. .pdf Notes.
Video preview with UDM coach Matt Holtz.

Tempo-Free Profile

The TempoFreeLax.com numbers displayed here are adjusted for strength of schedule. Although Canisius has one of the easier schedules in the country (No. 43 of 63), it’s actually by far the toughest among MAAC teams.

One thing stands out about Canisius. Well, that’s not true. Several things stand out. But the first one that catches my eye is that they’re sloooooow. Going against one of the fastest teams in the country in Detroit, that’s an area to watch.

In terms of team quality, rather than team style, there’s one thing that Canisius is really good at: possessing the ball. That’s primarily accomplished through quality in the faceoff department, since they’re not particularly good on the clear and terrible on the ride. The possession advantage allows them to be one of the better teams in the MAAC despite…

Being pretty terrible on both offense and defense. Canisius is actually significantly worse than Manhattan (this is notable. Manhattan is easily one of the worst teams in the country) on both offense and defense, and the possession advantage has allowed them to maintain some modicum of respectability.

Overall, Canisius is simply not a good team… but that puts them only one slot behind Detroit nationally. This should still be an even battle.

Offense

With only one game remaining in the regular season, the number of Griffins who have reached double-digit points on the year is… six. Sure, that relates to pace of play, but when your opponents are outscoring you by nearly 100 points on aggregate, maybe you just can’t score.

The dudes who can score are led by sophomore midfielder Tim Edwards. He drives the whole deal for Canisius with 19 goals and 19 assists, giving him a hand in more than 40% of the Griffins’ total goals. Shut him down, and an already-bad offense should be inept. Obviously that’s not America’s Easiest Task.

Edwards’ complementary pieces are all goal-heavy, so he’s the primary feeder. Freshman attack Vince Gravino and senior midfielder Rautenstrauch are in the mid-20s in total points. Sophomores Brandon Bull (midfielder) and Austin Romantic (attack) are both in the mid-teens. As mentioned above, none is a serious feeding threat.

The next two leading scorers have each played in a grand total of five games. Billy Jacobbi recently re-entered the lineup, so he could be a serious weapon. with only about half the team’s season to determine that, the freshman midfielder is mostly an unknown – but a potentially dangerous piece. ody Gould has been out of the lineup lately.

Since Canisius’ options are so limited, it seems like a pretty easy matchup for the Titans: put your best player (LSM Jordan Houtby) on Edwards, and slow him down enough that the rest of the Griffins can’t create for themselves against a pretty good D.

Defense

The Canisius D is the fourth-worst in the country. That’s no bueno. Two goalies have seen significant action behind that unit, led by Alex Govenettio. He’s saved just .444 of shots faced (still much better than backup Nick Carrasco at .371). The key in this one? Put a lot of shots up, and put them on cage. The Griffins’ netminders probably just can’t handle it.

Opponents aren’t exactly racking up assists, so it’s not like the goalies are just getting killed by their defense, either. Well, that’s not quite true. They are facing a ton of shots per possession, so a lot of rubber means a lot of opportunities to score goals. Still, it seems these netminders will gladly oblige you on those opportunities.

On defense, just a couple players have significant caused turnovers – which I guess is expected out of a defense that’s all-around terrible. Sophomore Adam Donner has racked up 11 CTs, and and senior shot-stick Kevin Lalley has nine. Your starters alongside Donner have been junior Adam Knopfke and a rotating cast of characters.

Given the Detroit offense’s diversification in terms of scoring distribution (even if the overall offense has improve by just a small increment), there should be enough holes to get off a lot of shots. The key is putting them on cage for the goalies to not save.

Special Teams

Finally, something Canisius is really good at. Senior Mike Moran is a really good faceoff specialist, and picks up about two-thirds of his wins on his own. Detroit has oscillated between good and poor, with the overall result being just below average. In this one, I see preventing clean wins as the key. Canisius can’t do anything when they get the ball, so as long as they don’t get instant offense from the draw, you’re good. Winning a third of draws and allowing just one or two fast-break opportunities from this phase will be more than enough to consider it a W.

Canisius has a pretty good clear, ranked in about the same territory as UDM’s similarly good ride. The Titans seem to have two phases: one where they turn on the heavy ride, and one where they drop back and if the opponents mess up on their own, so be it. This seems like a good opportunity to use the latter, with some one-on-one pressure used, as well. Coming in the other direction, Detroit has struggled getting the ball up the field, and Canisius hasn’t forced a whole lot of failed clears. Just don’t shoot yourself in the foot (which, unfortunately, has been the large-scale problem with the Titan clear this season).

Canisius plays a relatively clean brand of lacrosse, so going up against Detroit’s roving band of thugs (in the eyes of officials at least, and not always unjustifiably so) should see the penalty balance in their favor. Fortunately, both their man-up and man-down are bad. Despite spending more time in the box, Detroit should come out even in power play situations.

Big Picture

The stakes for this one are clear: survive and advance. A win qualifies the Titans for the MAAC Championships next weekend in Buffalo, and eliminates the Griffins from playing in the tourney on their home turf.

A loss, and the season’s over (but you have an open weekend to make up that Michigan game! I’m joking, I’m joking). That would be a 2-10 finish and a serious disappointment on the year. So don’t lose.

Predictions

Before looking into Canisius, I had thought I would pick UDM to lose. But man, the Griffins are bad.

• Multiple Titans cause three or more turnovers. Your top two candidates are obvious in Jordan Houtby and Jamie Hebden. Canisius is sloppy, and the Titans thrive on creating havoc. That will happen.
• Kyle Moran dominates faceoffs, and actually manages to turn a clean win or two into quick scoring for the Griffins. Coach Holtz tries at least a couple different players at the dot to slow things down.
• The Titans launch a season-high in shots. That’s both because they should against really iffy goalies, and because it will be available against a defense that lets opponents shoot at will.
• A freshman leads the Titans in scoring. I’m lookin’ at you, Andy Hebden.

As mentioned above, I was too concerned about the Titan psyche to predict a win, but this just seems like a game that shouldn’t bee too much trouble. The Griffins’ strengths are neutralized by those of the Titans, and UDM has the advantages in most other aspects. That sounds like a win, no? Detroit 13, Canisius 8.

Share your predictions, discussion, etc. in the comments.