Detroit Preview: Bellarmine

I’ve already previewed the Knights once, when they played Michigan in mid-February. BU has actually continued to show that it’s a pretty good squad, while Detroit… has not inspired much confidence.

Bellarmine

Fear the stylized Knights!

1 p.m. EST March 5, 2013
Louisville, Ky.
Gameday central (inc. livestats). Live video.

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Bellarmine has played four games at this point, against a wide range of competition. Michigan and High Point are on the lower end of things (and in all honesty, the best UDM analogues), Robert Morris is in the middle, and Loyola – while not last year’s unstoppable force – is in the upper tier.  The stats are a pretty good representation of BU at this point (starting soon, I’ll use fully-adjusted stats instead of raw numbers).

Bellarmine is drawing about even in the possession game. They’re slightly better in faceoffs than opponents (despite playing a very good faceoff team in Loyola), and are valuing their ride more than the opposition is.

Despite the possession advantage, they’ve also been able to put up a significantly better efficiency number than opponents. Much of that advantage was built in 12-6 and 12-5 wins over Michigan and High Point, respectively, but things have drawn even against the better opponents, too.

Offense

Cameron Gardner and Michael Ward are the unquestioned stars of this team, and if the Michigan game is any indication, Gardner does most of his damage in transition (although, if the Michigan game is an indication, most of BU’s offense comes in transition). Fifth-year Karsen Leung is also a catalyst for the offense, leading the squad with seven assists.

The key to slowing down Bellarmine will be preventing them from getting in transition. Even Michigan’s oft-rickety defense was able to slow down BU in the half-field, but the Wolverines were killed on the break. From what I’ve seen out of UDM, they’re a clearly superior half-field defense… but not any less scary giving up transition.

Defense

Bellarmine’s half-field defense isn’t really anything to write home about, but where they make their hay is in making sure opponents have to face it. Even though BU is a team that values the ride, they don’t give up as many transition chances as you’d think.

Sophomore LSM Michael Bender is the dangerman, causing seven turnovers to lead the team this year, followed by close defenseman Sean Joyce and SSDM Trevor Timmberberg. Still, this is not a defensive unit that will get out and pressure you in the half-field. Their style is predicated on taking away opportunities more than anything.

With Shayne Adams reportedly not traveling to Louisville, the Titans are down their biggest playmaker. While there are other players (such as Alex Maini) who have stepped up in spots, that’s not exactly a recipe for success, either.

Special Teams

Bellarmine is a good faceoff team. With a game against Loyola under their belts, I think it’s safe to say that’s not just because of competition faced. David Herring is the most-oft deployed faceoff specialist, and he’s barely over .500, while Stephen Soriano has seen his only action in the latest two games and impressed in limited opportunities. I would expect Loyola to hover just above .500 all year.

The BU clear is very good, though the Knights haven’t faced a heavy-riding team (Michigan isn’t about that life anymore). Still, they have the stick skills and athleticism to make sure it’ll never be a liability this year. Coming the other way, they value the ride, but haven’t really turned up the heat yet. Expect them to clear better than opponents on account of that ride.

The Knights have committed about half-again as many penalties as opponents have, not a particularly clean squad. Both they and opponents have hardly converted on the EMO this year (though Bellarmine had a man-down goal against Michigan, too).

Big Picture

Until Detroit wins, every game takes on an increased sense of urgency – especially those against non-elite opponents (which, thankfully, populate almost the entirety of the remaining schedule). The Titans need a win in the worst way.

This is one of three remaining non-conference opponents (Michigan and Marquette come later in the year), and if UDM wants to enter conference play without a zero in that win column, this is it.

Predictions

This is the first game I’ve previewed this year in which I’ve already seen both teams play live this season. I think Bellarmine is the better squad. We’ll see how that turns out.

• Although Bellarmine has been pretty good on faceoffs and UDM has been below-average, unless this Soriano character is a major revelation, I see the faceoff battle hovering around even. Unfortunately, it appears – based on just a couple games of evidence, to be fair – that Soriano may actually be something to watch.
• Against Michigan, Bellarmine thrived on earning turnovers and getting in transition. From what I’ve seen of Detroit, that… could be an issue this afternoon.
• The Detroit offense, without Shayne Adams, really scares me. While the Titans are better than Michigan offensively… is that the case without the team’s best offensive player? I don’t know if that can be said for certain. I would bet not, if only because the chemistry won’t be there.

A lot of Bellarmine’s strengths happen to play into Detroit’s weaknesses… and that’s not a good thing for the Titans. Especially playing on the road – in potentially crappy weather – I give the advantage to BU. If A.J. Levell can stand on his head, UDM could get the win, but that’s asking a lot of the guy. Bellarmine gets the 12-5 victory.