Detroit and MAAC Bracketology

The Michigan/Detroit game is behind us… without happening… so the immediate goal for the Titans is beating Marquette this weekend.

HOWEVA, that’s meaningless to the grand scheme of things in terms of the way their season plays out (which apparently means they just shouldn’t play it), and the big picture is all about the MAAC Tournament. Close losses against Jacksonville and Siena have made entry into the tournament non-guaranteed. How can things play out, seeding-wise, over the final two games of the season?

Remaining Games

The Titans and Jacksonville are the only MAAC teams with just one game remaining; everyone else has two. Those two teams fill the void with non-conference contests against Marquette (Detroit, this weekend) and Mercer (Jacksonville, next weekend). Here are the games still on the schedule:

Who’s in

Let’s lay a couple ground rules here. Two teams already have four wins (Marist and Jacksonville), and are in no matter what. Two teams have four losses (Manhattan and VMI) and are out no matter what. In terms of who makes the tournament, the final two spots are up for grabs between three teams: Siena, Canisius, and Detroit. Siena has the head-to-head victory over both other teams, so the Saints are a win against VMI (spoiler alert: they’ll get it) from definitely qualifying.

If Canisius loses to Jacksonville (as expected based on the TempoFreeLax numbers), the Titans and Griffins will have the same 2-3 record, and the winner of the head-to-head next weekend is int the tournament with a 3-3 record while the other drops to 2-4. If Canisius beats Jacksonville, which would be a surprise, the Griffins would have a 3-2 record with Detroit at 2-3. Detroit could still make the tournament with a victory over Canisius (bringing both teams to 3-3 and giving UDM the head-to-head tiebreaker).

Seeding

Marist has a head-to-head win against Jacksonville and an auto-win against Manhattan still on the schedule. A remaining contest against Siena will determine the final seeding. Win, and it’s simple:

1. Marist (6-0)
2. Jacksonville (5-1)
3. Siena (4-2)

…unless Canisius beats both Jacksonville and Detroit, in which case the Golden Griffins take over the No. 3 seed based on the head-to-head with JU.

If Marist loses to Siena and Jacksonville takes care of business against Canisius, there’s a three-way tie at the top with a round of 5-1 records. There’s also a triangle of doom, with no full head-to-head tiebreaker (Marist over Jacksonville over Siena over Marist). Their undefeated records against the rest of the conference mean we have to invoke tiebreaker C:

The next step is to compare the number of goals allowed among  the tied teams. The tied teams shall be seeded in order of goals allowed. The team with the fewest goals allowed is seeded highest.

Pending the Marist/Siena game, Jacksonville has allowed 24 goals to the other two teams, while Marist and Siena both conceded 11 against the Dolphins. A Siena win in which the Saints score fewer than 13 goals means it’s Siena-Marist-Jacksonville. If they score more than that (and Marist does not), it’s Siena-Jacksonville-Marist. If both teams score more than 13 goals, it’s Jacksonville-Siena-Marist.

So basically all those words point out that if Marist loses to Siena, it gets really complicated at the top. If either Marist or Siena falls to the dregs of the conference… well, that’s just so unlikely that I won’t bother mapping out all the scenarios.

Is there a way for Detroit to play as anything other than the 4-seed? Short answer, no. The Titans’ best possible record is 3-3, and the worst possible record among those already in (which requires a Siena loss to VMI, just as a reminder here) is also 3-3. The Detroit win would result in a 3-way tie for third place, but since Siena beat Jacksonville, they win the three-way tiebreaker, earning the third seed. Detroit would still be fourth. For the record, Canisius winning their final two games would give them the 3-seed over Siena in the event of a Siena loss to VMI (I can’t make it clear enough how much that isn’t happening) and to Marist.

The Big Picture

Detroit has a “win-and-you’re-in” game against Canisius next Saturday. They will be the four-seed no matter what. If Marist beats Siena, the Red Foxes are Detroit’s round one opponents. If Marist fails to beat Siena, it’s either Jacksonville or Siena for the Titans in round one.

What’s preferred? Detroit didn’t beat any of the three top seeds, but actually managed to keep all three contests close on the road. The tournament is held at Canisius, so by virtue of knocking the Griffins out of the tournament, there are no road games here (as long as you do what it takes to make it).

The Tempo-Free Lax numbers say that Marist is by far the best team in the conference, and although the dominoes that need to fall for them to lose the one-seed will knock them down some, I think it’s better not to play the Red Foxes to start out. Thus, you’re cheering for a Marist loss to Siena, which means playing either the Saints or Dolphins. Since Jacksonville seems the weakest (by far) of that trio, cheer for a high-scoring Siena win over Marist and a Jacksonville win over Canisius.

I’ll re-calibrate the bracketology after this weekend, at which point two of the most impactful results will be known.