Michigan’s chances to steal a win this year are dwindling… and this doesn’t look like one of them, from each team’s early performances. It’s possible to see a surprise, but not likely.
Fairfield
#Stagswag
7:00 p.m. EST
March 13, 2013
Fairfield, Conn.
Fairfield pregame notes. .pdf notes.
Michigan pregame notes. .pdf notes.
Live stats. @UMichLacrosse
Live video. Nine Freakin’ bucks and it doesn’t even include commentary. Not sure what the hell some of these small schools are thinking with their profit (or lack thereof) model.
Tempo-Free Profile
With Tempo-Free Lax.com fully up to date, the numbers shown here are adjusted for the strength of schedule (Fairfield has played the nation’s No. 10 toughest schedule to date – surely Michigan will drag that down).
| Fairfield 2013 |
| Pace |
64.33 (42) |
| Poss% |
48.45 (44) |
| Off. Eff. |
28.48 (40) |
| Def. Eff. |
27.01 (19) |
| Pyth% |
49.27 (37) |
So, what do we know about the Stags? They play pretty slowly. That is despite playing some of the faster teams in the country, so that must be by design. That seems to mean they grind out games, and the rest of their profile would appear to correspond with that.
They don’t possess the ball very well (albeit after playing several pretty good possession teams, they’re well below 50% there), their offense is mediocre, and the defense is pretty darn good. All told, they’ve been the No. 37 team in the country to date, though they have plenty of upside when they play against weaker teams – like Michigan.
Let’s take a closer look at the personnel and what makes this team go.
Offense
The Fairfield offense is primarily run through two players, junior attack Jordan Greenfield and senior midfielder Sam Snow. They have 17 (12G, 5A) and 16 (13G, 3A) points, respectively, so both are primarily finishers. Greenfield seems like the bigger danger in this one, what with Michigan’s inability to contain opposing attackmen (and relatively decent ability to slow down midfielders). Sophomore Tristan Sperry has missed one game this season, but could make a surge in scoring with a healthy return to the lineup.
The distributor of the bunch sits right behind those two. Sophomore midfielder Colin McLinden has four goals and eight assists, and is joined by junior combo attack/midfielder Eric Warden (who, based on the stats, seems to play mostly midfield) as the only multi-point scorers on the roster with more assists than goals.
Fairfield assists on .549 of goals scored, so while this is a ball-sharing offense, it seems to be equally slanted toward a one-on-one creating type. That’s given Michigan fits, but it could also mean that the Wolverines are less hesitant to slide early, something that definitely killed them against talented attackmen in the High Point game.
Defense
Junior keeper Jack Murphy has played every second between the pipes for Fairfield this year, and he’s done a damn good job. He’s saving .586 of shots faced (seeing quite a bit of heat too, though not nearly in Gerald Logan’s range), and is a big part of that strong Fairfield defense.
The close defense is led by juniors Toby Armour and Greg Perraut, along with sophomore Tom Lukacovic. Armour has caused eight turnovers this season, but the defense is really not predicated on forcing the offense to turn it over. Rather, they let offenses take bad shots, and allow Murphy to do his thing. Sophomore two-way middie (appears to be mostly a defensive player) Bryan Barry has five caused turnovers on the year, and leads non-goalie Stags in GBs with 20.
One thing to note about GB numbers – Fairfield has been getting killed on the ground this year. That’s one thing that Michigan is particularly horrible at, so we’ll see if the Wolverines can make some improvement or just continue to struggle.
Special Teams
Since the possession game has been Fairfield’s worst aspect this season (thanks in no small part to GB struggles, surely), this is one spot where Michigan might be able to make a little bit of noise. The Wolverines have been even worse in possession this season, but that includes multiple games without their starting faceoff guy, as well as a game against Johns Hopkins and Unstoppable Faceoff God Mike Poppleton. Fairfield’s split draws between Louis DiGiacomo and Michael Roe, and both have been awwwwwwwful. As in, barely scraping .375 bad. And that’s without any Mike Poppleton issues.
Michigan’s faceoff specialists (particularly if Lott is fully healthy and available) should be able to get the clamp, and the communication with wings – and the wings actually picking up ground balls – will be paramount. If U-M doesn’t take advantage of this team on faceoffs, they’re doomed to be the country’s worst by the end of the year.
Fairfield doesn’t clear all that well – they’re in the bottom third of the country – but they likely have the stick skills to have some success against the Wolverines, who seem to have de-emphasized the ride this season, either due to the new clock rules or mortal fear of giving up transition goals. What Fairfield does do very well is ride. Given Michigan’s clearing issues in recent weeks, that could be trouble. Did the Wolverines just have a rough stretch after starting the year well, or were the early-season successes the mirage? If it’s the latter, big trouble awaits in Connecticut this evening.
From a penalty perspective, Fairfield is a relatively clean team, committing fewer infractions than their opposition. The difference in conversion rate between offense and defense is low enough to chalk it up to statistical noise, though there is some indication that the Fairfield man-down defense is a big step down from the even-strength. Getting and maintaining possession (and ultimately converting) on the EMO should be a big priority for U-M.
Big Picture
So, Michigan is going on twenty-one games as a varsity program, with one win to date, and none of them against a good team (the lone victory came against last year’s hapless Mercer squad). This would not only be the second win, first conference win, etc., it would also be the first win against a team that actually appears to have their stuff together.
That’s not to say the Stags aren’t vulnerable, but picking up a victory would be a huge upset here. A season-shifting, monumental upset. The type of upset that this program would hang its hat on. The type of upset that, in all honesty, isn’t going to happen.
Predictions
I’ve scooped myself on the game prediction above, but there are still some micro-level things that I think should go well for Michigan.
- The Wolverines will do very well on faceoffs, even if Brad Lott isn’t available. 50% is the minimum, and greater than that, depending on strategy, Lott’s availability, etc.
- When Michigan does get possession, however, I think they turn it over a lot. That’s not Fairfield’s strategy, per se, but Michigan will have to pass it around the horn a lot to find looks, because this Fairfield team doesn’t give up a lot of good ones. The U-M offense just isn’t polished enough to execute that cleanly all game.
- This will be Michigan’s slowest game of the year to date. I’m not really going out on a limb here, since the Stags have played exactly one game this year (a 74-possession loss to North Carolina) that is faster than Michigan’s slowest game all season.
- Michigan – as they do with regularity, despite their talent disparity – gets the early lead, but Fairfield recovers by halftime, and chokes the life out of the game by the time it ends.
This is a particularly bad matchup for Michigan if the Wolverines can’t control a whole lot of faceoffs. They won’t see a whole lot of the ball against a slowdown Fairfield offense (and a good Stags ride) if they don’t capitalize on all the chances they get. Still, the chance to excel on faceoffs should keep Michigan in the game to start, before a fade. Fairfield takes this one, 12-4.
Share your predictions, discussion, etc. in the comments.
