Detroit 8, Marist 11

The short-handed Titans actually put up a bit more fight than I thought they would (the opposite of what happened when they lost their best offensive threat last year), but didn’t manage to pull an upset win against Marist. This is going to shape up to be a really tough year unless the team rallies.

Tempo Free

From the official box score, a look at the tempo-free stats:

Marist 2013
Detroit Marist
Faceoff Wins 6 Faceoff Wins 15
Clearing 20-29 Clearing 21-24
Possessions 38 Possessions 48
Goals 8 Goals 11
Offensive Efficiency .211 Offensive Efficiency .229

This was a game that was very close on a possession-to-possession basis, but one team’s ability to dominate the ball ultimately decided the game. Marist was dominant on faceoffs, and rode the Titans very well for an advantage overall.

It’s tough in those instances to steal a win, especially on the road, and especially with an offense that hasn’t shown up much at all this season.

Notes

As expected, Shayne Adams did not play in this one. It’s tough to say how much Detroit missed him though, since the offense has been dysfunctional no matter who’s in the lineup.

Surprisingly, Alex Maini was not the offensive player who stepped up with Adams out of the lineup. He had a single goal and just two shots. Mike Birney scored two goals and added an assist, Tom Masterson scored his first two goals of the season, and a pair of freshmen – Northville product Nick Melucci and Brother Rice alum Andy Hebden – had a goal and an assist apiece.

While the offense wasn’t good (and hasn’t been, and likely won’t be with any consistency this season), the defense’s identity is simply not where it had been in previous years, either. The Titans forced just seven turnovers in 48 opponent possessions. That’s a far cry from where things have been in the recent past. Jordan Houtby and Jamie Hebden were (unsurprisingly) the only Titans with more than one caused turnover.

A.J. Levell was your starting goalie in this one, and he saved 50% of shots faced. When the defense doesnt’ seem to be limiting good looks or causing a parade of turnovers, it’s going to be tough for a keeper. That seems to be the case. At this point, I’m not sure what the competition is like between Levell and Chris Kelly.

Connor Rice and Jack Doherty each had five total points and led the Red Foxes (as expected). Joseph Radin, Jim Marks, and Aedan Herman also had multi-point games for Marist.

Moving along to faceoffs… I’m not sure what to think. The stats can only tell you so much when a faceoff unit that had been performing pretty well all year goes against what looks to be an equally talented one and simply gets clowned. Tyler Corcoran and Damien Hicks both struggled to get any wins, and Brandon Davenport only attempted one faceoff.

The final score is close, and the Titans had opportunities to steal one here, but really the flow of the game looks as though they didn’t seriously threaten, but for a few minutes here and there. After taking a 2-0 and 3-1 lead to start the game, the Titans gave up four straight and eight of the next nine to give Marist momentum. Though they drew back within 9-7 after a mini-rally late in the third, Marist was able to slam the door and take the relatively comfortable win.

Elsewhere

The official boxscore. Detroit recap. Marist recap.

Up Next

This weekend brings the best chance so far this season for the Titans to get a win. As bad as UDM has been, VMI has been much (much) worse. The game is at home, so there will be chances to build on momentum, etc.

This is probably the last game the Titans will be favored in this year (especially since the Manhattan game is on the road), so if they don’t get the win, it could be time to put them on serious Reverse Survivor watch.

Posted in division 1 | Tagged , , | 10 Comments

Scores and Schedule: March 18, 2013

I’m assuming – perhaps incorrectly – that I’ll be talking about Michigan’s first win of the year right about here.

Yesterday’s Results

Division-1 Men

Michigan 7, Colgate 10

Division-3 Men

Albion 8, Augustana 7 (OT)

Division-3 Women

Albion 3, Augustana 16
Adrian 14, Aurora 0
Olivet 12, Trine 8

MCLA-1

Michigan State 9, Illinois 2
Davenport 9, Arizona State 15

MCLA-2

Lawrence Tech 6, St. Andrew’s 28
Aquinas 6, Lindenwood-Belleville 11

Today’s Schedule

Division-3 Men

Hope @ Wilmington

Division-3 Women

Hope @ Shenandoah

Corrections, omissions, etc. always appreciated in the comments.

Posted in division 1, division 3, mcla | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Scores and Schedule: March 18, 2013

Michigan Preview: Colgate

So Michigan is playing well in the most recent stretch of games, but the team’s biggest weakness has been facing an exceptional attackman. Good thing they’re not facing the reigning Tewaaraton winner today…

Colgate

Colgate Raiders Lacrosse Logo

Both flag and torch double as lacrosse sticks. Illegal equipment flag is down.

3:00 p.m. EST – ESPNU
March 17, 2013
Flushing, NY (Citi Field)
Colgate tailgate information(!). Pregame notes.
Michigan pregame notes. .pdf notes.
Live stats.
Airs on ESPNU, also streaming on ESPN3.com.
Part of the Metropolitan Lacrosse Classic, hosted by the New York Mets. The second game of a double-header (Navy and Holy Cross play at noon).

Tempo-Free Profile

With TempoFreeLax.com fully up to date, the numbers shown here are adjusted for the strength of schedule (Marist has played the nation’s No. 27 toughest schedule to date).

Colgate 2013
Pace 71.00 (18)
Poss% 50.91 (23)
Off. Eff. 33.19 (22)
Def. Eff. 28.65 (27)
Pyth% 63.84 (22)

Colgate plays a pretty fast brand of lacrosse – good for T.V. – and edges just ahead of opponents in terms of the proportion of those possessions. That means a lot of Raider possessions in games.

That gives a high-powered Colgate offense plenty of opportunities to put the ball in the back of the net (doesn’t hurt that they take .644 shots per possession). The offense has taken a distinct step back from last year’s ridiculous output, but it’s still pretty good (and talented). The defense has also taken a slight step back, but not quite as pronounced. All told, this has been a fringe top-20 team to date.

Let’s take a closer look at the personnel and what makes this team go.

Offense

Hey have you heard of Peter Baum? Oh, OK. He had unreal offensive numbers last year, scoring a goal on more than one out of every ten Raider possessions and assisting on five percent of them. That means he had a hand in scoring on nearly 15% of Colgate possessions, and the team as a whole scored on about 36% of them. That’s good.

The senior attackman’s numbers aren’t nearly as good this year, accompanied by a general slide for the whole offense. Sophomore Ryan Walsh has stepped up to rival Baum’s production to date, however, with 17 goals and four assists to Baum’s 20 and nine. He’s also huge for an attackman, standing 6-4, 238.

Sophomore midfielder Matt Clarkson has eight goals and eight assists, while a pair of juniors – midfielder Jimmy Ryan and attackman Brendon McCann – have identical nine goal, four assist outputs.

The “single great attackman” offense has been a killer for Michigan this year, and facing one of the country’s best sure isn’t their dream matchup. Even if the Wolverines manage to somehow slow down Baum, that will likely open things up for McCann. There are a lot of options here, despite the offense not being exceptional this year.

Defense

Like the offense, the defense hasn’t lived up to last year’s high marks. However, it’s still a pretty good unit. Juniors Bobby Lawrence and Kevin Boyle lead non-faceoff specialists in caused turnovers and ground balls (Boyle is listed as a defenseman but has not starts – he’s likely your LSM).

Senior James Queeney and sophomore Matt Yeager have started every game along with Lawrence, but haven’t put up big GB numbers to date. Lawrence and Boyle are clearly the dangermen on the defensive unit.

The goalkeeping situation has been split between junior Conor Murphy and freshman Gordon Santry. Santry has more starts (four to three) and a little bit more time between the pipes, but Murphy has earned the starting position after Santry started the year. He has a significantly better goals against average (7.92 to 11.84) and save percentage (.508 to .418), though neither has been exceptional in any respect.

Special Teams

Faceoffs are a slight advantage for the Raiders – at 52.05%, they’re No. 25 in the country. Sophomore Alex Kinnealy is 1/9 in the only duty taken by a player other than senior Robert Grabher (“Her” here meaning the clamp on a faceoff, clearly). Grabher is at .540 on the year, and has .724 as many ground balls as he does wins – he picks them up himself quite a bit (it doesn’t appear from this other stats that he’s a significant O- or D-middie) in other phases of the game). He’s a weapon for the Raiders.

Colgate is just above-average in the clearing game, and against a team like Michigan that is middle-of-the-road in riding (after being a hard-riding team last year, they’ve switched it up to prevent transition opportunities), so expect standard results there. On the other end, Colgate is one of the hardest-riding teams in the country this year (No.9). Michigan – after starting the year very well on the clear – has slid back to No. 50 in the country. They’ve gone in fits and starts – other than brutal performances against Army and High Point, things haven’t been bad – so expecting any sort of consistency is a little premature.

Colgate takes a lot of penalties in comparison to opponents, the opposite of Michigan (though a couple rough games have brought things closer to even), and doesn’t convert nearly as well as opponents, despite the offensive talent on the roster. At this point, it’s fair to expect EMOs – both in sheer volume and conversion – to favor Michigan against most teams.

Big Picture

Michigan’s second big nationally televised is an opportunity to represent the brand to world, and like the Hopkins game, I think the Wolverines will do a little better than expected. “Expected,” however, is a pretty rough outing, so we’ll see just how close U-M can keep things.

This probably isn’t one of the winnable contests left on the schedule, but it’s also one in which the Wolverines can prevent themselves from being blown out by slowing things down and making Colgate’s offense – again, not nearly the unit it was last year – earn what it gets.

Predictions

Whether Michigan will actually be able to slow things down might be the biggest question…

  • I don’t think it’s happening, though. One way to speed up pace? Convert a lot of goals. Colgate has the type of personnel – one exceptional attackman and a good enough supporting cast – that can really make Michigan pay. Expect Michigan’s fastest game of the year (previously 77 against Hopkins).
  • Peter Baum hasn’t been as ridiculous as last year, but this game is an opportunity for him to do a whole lot of scoring. Five-plus goals and a couple assists should be a nice day at the office for him.
  • Brad Lott (or Charlie Keady) should be able to stalemate Grabher on draws. He’s a big factor in pushing things on clean wins, so mucking things up in the middle and letting the wing players get around 40% of the GBs will be a good day. Beating him straight-up would be a surprise, but is possible, too.
  • Gerald Logan – as has become the status quo – will steal a couple goals from Colgate, but will also have a tough task playing behind his defense. U-M’s back line should be healthiest they have been in a while, but they’ve still struggled most of the year.
  • Michigan should get a couple EMO goals in this game. Colgate plays pretty rough, and the man-down defense isn’t great. That phase is one of Michigan’s few strengths, so expect them to capitalize.

I’ve stressed enough times that Colgate isn’t last year’s juggernaut, but the Raiders are still trotting out a really good team, so Michigan – while the Wolverines aren’t going to admit defeat before the contest – probably isn’t expecting to win. They won’t. Colgate takes it, 16-6.

Share your predictions, discussion, etc. in the comments.

Posted in division 1, previews | Tagged , , | 6 Comments

Scores and Schedule: March 17, 2013

Both Detroit teams have close calls – but can’t pull off wins – whereas things went much better in the lower divisions.

Yesterday’s Results

Division-1 Men

Detroit 8, Marist 11

Division-1 Women

Detroit 13, Campbell 14

Division-3 Men

Alma 3, Oberlin 12
Olivet 14, Defiance 3

Division-3 Women

Calvin 2, Notre Dame (Md.) 8
Albion 11, Aurora 8
Alma 19, Baldwin-Wallace 3
Adrian 16, Augustana 11

MCLA-1

Davenport 14, Grand Canyon 15
Michigan State 3, Colorado State 9

MCLA-2

Siena Heights @ Grove City – postponed
Ferris State 1, Lindenwood-Belleville 25
Michigan-Dearborn @ Michigan-Flint – canceled
Lawrence Tech 3, John Carroll 8

Today’s Schedule

Division-1 Men

Michigan v. Colgate, 3 p.m. ESPNU (Citi Field, Flushing, N.Y.)

Division-3 Men

Albion @ Augustana

Division-3 Women

Albion @ Augustana
Adrian @ Aurora
Trine @ Olivet

MCLA-1

Michigan State @ Illinois, 1 p.m. Central (Benedictine University, Lisle, Ill.)
Davenport @ Arizona State, 1 p.m. Mountain

MCLA-2

Lawrence Tech v. St. Andrew’s, noon (University Heights, Ohio)
Aquinas v. Lindenwood-Belleville, noon

Corrections, omissions, etc. always appreciated in the comments.

Posted in division 1, division 3, mcla | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Scores and Schedule: March 17, 2013

Scores and Schedule: March 16, 2013

Big Saturday around the state, and there wil be lots of games to digest this afternoon.

Yesterday’s Results

Division-3 Men

Hope 18, Bethany 5

Division-3 Women

Alma 10, Robert Morris (Ill.) 9

MCLA-1

Central Michigan 15, Western Michigan 11
Michigan State 12, Minnesota-Duluth 8

Today’s Schedule

Division-1 Men

Detroit @ Marist, 3 p.m. (Poughkeepsie, N.Y.) – Preview

Division-1 Women

Detroit v. Campbell, noon (Titan Field)

Division-3 Men

Alma @ Oberlin
Olivet @ Defiance

Division-3 Women

Calvin @ Notre Dame (Md.)
Albion @ Aurora
Alma v. Baldwin-Wallace
Adrian @ Augustana

MCLA-1

Davenport @ Grand Canyon, noon Mountain (Phoenix, Ariz.)
Michigan State v. Colorado State, 5 p.m. Central (Benedictine University, Lisle, Ill.)

MCLA-2

Siena Heights @ Grove City, noon
Ferris State v. Lindenwood-Belleville, noon
Michigan-Dearborn @ Michigan-Flint, 1 p.m.
Lawrence Tech @ John Carroll, 2 p.m.

Corrections, omissions, etc. always appreciated in the comments.

Posted in division 1, division 3, mcla | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Scores and Schedule: March 16, 2013

Detroit Preview: Marist

After a loooong layoff, he Titans have a tough start to conference play, heading on the road to face the Marist squad that they nipped in overtime at home last year. Marist’s trajectory this year has been upward, while Detroit has taken a sharp turn downward since about the midway point of last season (after the Marist win, in fact).

Marist

Marist Red Foxes Lacrosse

The Red Fox will cuddle your team to death.

3:00 p.m. EST
March 16, 2013
Poughkeepsie, N.Y.
Fairfield pregame notes. .pdf notes.
Michigan pregame notes. .pdf notes.
Live stats
Live video. Even fewer people will pay 12 bucks to watch this than would pay nine to watch Michigan/Fairfield. Somebody needs to teach these athletic departments an Econ lesson.

Tempo-Free Profile

With Tempo-Free Lax.com fully up to date, the numbers shown here are adjusted for the strength of schedule (Marist has played the nation’s No. 63 toughest schedule to date – that’s dead last, folks).

Marist 2013
Pace 65.00 (40)
Poss% 50.38 (26)
Off. Eff. 30.84 (34)
Def. Eff. 29.96 (34)
Pyth% 53.42 (32)

The Red Foxes numbers, without exception, tells us the same thing about this team: they’re dead center in the middle of the pack. The offensive and defensive efficiencies both rank juuuust below-average when adjusted for schedule strength, but their decent possession percentage (mostly based on a great clear) takes them right up to average in the nation.

All told, they’ve done to the country’s worst schedule so far (they’ve dispatch #43 Stony Brook, #50 Sacred Heart, #38 Lafayette, #40 Towson doesn’t look bad, but there’s not marquee opponent there, that’s for sure) what you’d expect an average team to do – win by a about four goals a game. That’s decent enough – and #61 Detroit certainly isn’t going to make things any tougher – but they haven’t been tested one bit yet, and won’t be until they take on Duke Monday.

Let’s take a closer look at the personnel and what makes this team go.

Offense

Marist has played as few games as anyone in the country, so the stats haven’t fleshed themselves out too much, but we can start to see what they’re all about.

There are two finishers on this team in senior attack Jack Doherty and sophomore midfielder Mike Begley. Doherty has an 11G 3A line so far, and Begley isn’t far behind with nine goals and two assists of his own. Kind of the opposite of expected in today’s era of lacrosse, the attackman is a big 6-3, 200-pounder, whereas midfielder Begley is 5-10, 180.

The feeder for this offense is senior attack Connor Rice (who, to be fair, is the littler, shiftier attackman you’d expect). He has five goals of his own, but also leads the team in assists with seven. 6-0, 200-pound midfielder Patrick Eaker (1G, 2A) is the only other regular in the lineup with more assists than goals, though to be fair freshman attack Dillon Walker has put up two assists in just two appearances on the year (both in the comeback win over Stony Brook).

From there, the offense is filled with a number of role players, and most of their production comes from within the offense – and through the opportunities created by the above-mentioned.

Defense

Ethan Fox and Patrick Wall are the two dangermen of the Marist defense. They’re the two tops on the squad in caused turnovers with four and six, respectively, and right up there among non-faceoff players in ground balls. T.J. McDermott hasn’t exactly stuffed the statsheet, but has start all four games alongside those two. The Marist roster doesn’t differentiate D from LSM, so it’s a little tough to say what’s what there.

The Red Foxes have a few midfielders who register on the defensive end of the spectrum per the TFL formula (including the above-mentioned Patrick Eaker, though that’s probably due to moonlighting as a faceoffs specialist). Senior Mike O’Hagan looks like the top defensive midfielder, having caused four turnovers and picked up six GBs to this point.

Special Teams

Faceoffs have bene just below below average for the Red Foxes. Senior Matt Dugan is winning at an impressive .577 clip, but a couple other players have taken a shot (and done so very poorly). Expect to see Dugan on the majority of the draws. After three years of my expecting it to happen, the Titans have rounded into a decent faceoff team. They should be at a slight disadvantage against a guy like Dugan, but nothing serious.

The Red Fox clear has been very good (No. 11 in the country), and against a middling ride like Detroit’s, expect them to clear pretty well in this one. Flipping it around, the Marist ride is below-average, but Detroit has one of the worst clearing games in the country. This could be a battle of very movable object v. eminently resistible force that determines who wins the possession game.

The Red Foxes commit a ton of penalties, and opponents really don’t against them. That may not matter against Detroit (typically one of the most penalty-prone teams in the land), but the two squads should draw something close to even. Both squads are kinda bad at converting on EMO opportunities, so… don’t expect fireworks, even if there are many penalties in this one.

Big Picture

The Titans will have two wins in the past calendar year by the time this one gets started (Ok, actually by Sunday, but ya know, narrative). Things can no longer be described as a “slump” and it’s just gotten to the point where “just not any good” is more accurate. That’s unfortunate, but this is going to be the toughest conference game (by far, according to early-season data), and probably not the time to turn it around.

I’ve also heard that Shayne Adams will not be available for this one – and possibly much longer – so what very little offense the Titans did have (third-worst in the country, but who’s keeping score?) could be even tougher to come by.

Predictions

So, I think I’ve made it pretty clear that I don’t expect the upset, right? Let’s get right into it then:

  • Marist wins the faceoff battle, but not by a wide margin. The Titans should hold their ground, and reaching 50/50 is a reasonable goal.
  • The UDM offense, without Shayne Adams, completely sputters. It’s already been scoring just 6.4 adjusted goals per game, and to consider that things might get worse is a little scary.
  • Despite playing an OK offense, I think the Detroit defense will perform pretty well. Both heavily-used Titan goalies have a propensity to steal a couple scores from the opposition, but also let in a soft one or two. That evens out in the end.
  • The opening of conference play gives the Titans a bit of new life, and that fire causes them to come out a little tougher than expected. That will keep the score manageable, but also result in several penalties, which will be the team’s undoing.

Especially on the road, I don’t expect this one to go well. I’m willing to be pleasantly surprised, but I see a 10-5 outcome in favor of Marist.

Share your predictions, discussion, etc. in the comments.

Posted in division 1, previews | Tagged , , | Comments Off on Detroit Preview: Marist

Michigan 8, Fairfield 10

This… it went better than expected. Michigan kept things really close, and had a legitimate shot to win it in the fourth quarter. Is that progress, or just a random occurrence? We’ll have to dig deeper to figure that out.

Tempo Free

From the official box score, a look at the tempo-free stats:

Fairfield 2013
Michigan Fairfield
Faceoff Wins 13 Faceoff Wins 7
Clearing 12-15 Clearing 12-16
Possessions 32 Possessions 26
Goals 8 Goals 10
Offensive Efficiency .250 Offensive Efficiency .385

For more, take a look at the game’s full tempo-free box on TempoFreeLax.com.

As expected, this was a pretty slow-paced game. That’s Fairfield’s M.O. – but has very much not been Michigan’s to date. Under 60 possessions is sloooooooow. Michigan controlled the majority of those possessions thanks to a very good day on faceoffs (as expected) and clearing slightly better than the Stags (probably not expected).

It’s what the teams did with those possessions that told the story of the game. Michigan had a decent offensive day, but the defense didn’t muster quite enough to shut Fairfield down those last couple times they needed to. With so few overall possessions, the difference in efficiencies seems a bit inflated.

Notes

There are no moral victories at the Division-1 level. A loss is a loss. The only victories are real ones, like when you end the game with more points than the opponent. However, this is as close as it comes to a moral victory, since it can be a real sign of growth. If Michigan comes out and lays an egg going forward (which is actually expected against really good teams in the next two), maybe it was just a good day. Who knows.

That said, this game brought a serious spotlight to the youth movement – even moreso than has already been there. With Thomas Paras still limited with a hamstring injury, underclassmen were the name of the game. Of Michigan’s 13 points (8 goals, 5 assists), seven (3G, 4A) were recorded by true freshmen, two (1G, 1A) by redshirt freshmen, and three (3G) by sophomores. Paras’ goal was the only point recorded by an upperclassman.

The players responsible for those points are interesting, as well. LSM Charlie Keady (playing on his home field from the high school days at Farifield Prep) and FOGO Brad Lott recorded their first points as Wolverines. Mike Hernandez (1G, 2A), David Joseph (1G, 1A), and David McCormack and Peter Kraus (2G apiece) were your scoring leaders.

U-M’s leading scorer on the season, freshman middie Kyle Jackson, was not among the scorers. While he’s obviously not happy with that performance, it’s probably not one you have to fear he’ll replicate. The young players have even more scoring potential as they continue to get used to the D-1 level. Clearly, more of them are getting into the mix.

Turnovers are stil a problem. Kraus committed five(!) and Hernandez four – though Kraus caused two on the other end to compensate a bit. Those two seemed to be forcing things at times against High Point, and that seems to have continued. The Wolverines committed 23 turnovers in 32 possessions, and cleaning that up will go a long way toward improving the overall offensive output (which is already on the way up).

Faceoffs were a big plus – as expected because Fairfield is an awful faceoff team. Brad Lott won 12 of 18 draws, and as noted above, turned one into his first collegiate assist. Kevin Wylie won his only draw, and longpole Chase Brown lost his sole attempt.

I was a bit surprised to see the clear/ride numbers turn out the way they did. I was just making assumptions when I guessed that Fairfield would clear well, so I’m not surprised to have been incorrect there. However, Michigan cleared pretty well – if not stellar – so there are a couple possibilities: 1) for whatever reason, Fairfield decided not to employ their (really good) ride, or 2) Michigan cleaned a lot of things up in the past few days since struggling bigtime against Army, High Point, and Hobart. Probably a mix of both. Again, young teams are going to be inconsistent, so “it is what it is.”

Fairfield’s Jordan Greenfield notched a hat trick on the day, and Michigan continues to struggle taking care of an attackman for the opposing team. Rob Healy played but may not be back to full strength, and J.D. Johnson is still out, but even with those guys in the lineup, opponents have been able to get one attackman plenty of goals. His linemates Sam Snow and Eric Warden also put together multi-point days. This is an area where Michigan just has to wait for talent and experience to get there.

Gerald Logan’s numbers were back in their excellent range after a slight step down against Hobart (though he had a good performance against the Statesmen, the numbers didn’t quite bear it out because he was getting shelled from close, according to a few people who watched the game in person). This outing was back into his 15-plus save range, and he made 17 of them, allowing 10 goals. Fairfield isn’t the best offensive team, but a .630 save percentage is nothing to sneeze at.

Elsewhere

The official boxscore. Michigan recap. Fairfield recap.

Up Next

Michigan has a really tough task Sunday, taking on reigning Tewaaraton trophy winner Peter Baum and his Colgate Raiders. They aren’t as explosive offensively as they were last year, but Michigan has problems with exceptional attackmen, and, uh, yeah. Tewaaraton.

The game will air on ESPNU and take place at Citi Field (home of the New York Mets, owned by proud Michigan alumnus Fred Wilpon), so it’s a “big event” atmosphere. The Wolverines have a chance to make a statement, but it’ll be a tough one to pull off.

Posted in division 1 | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Scores and Schedule: March 15, 2013

I’m assuming – perhaps incorrectly – that I’ll be talking about Michigan’s first win of the year right about here.

Yesterday’s Results

Division-1 Men

Michigan 8, Fairfield 10

Division-3 Men

Olivet 22, Lyndon State 4

Division-3 Women

Calvin 10, Hope 9

MCLA-1

Davenport 14, Arizona 12

MCLA-2

Grand Valley State 7, Liberty 15

Today’s Schedule

Division-3 Men

Hope @ Bethany

Division-3 Women

Alma v. Robert Morris (Ill.)

MCLA-1

Western Michigan @ Central Michigan, 8 p.m.
Michigan State v. Minnesota-Duluth, 8:30 p.m. Central (Benedictine University, Lisle, Ill.)

Corrections, omissions, etc. always appreciated in the comments.

Posted in division 1, division 3, mcla | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Scores and Schedule: March 15, 2013

Michigan Preview: Fairfield

Michigan’s chances to steal a win this year are dwindling… and this doesn’t look like one of them, from each team’s early performances. It’s possible to see a surprise, but not likely.

Fairfield

fairfield stags lacrosse logo

#Stagswag

7:00 p.m. EST
March 13, 2013
Fairfield, Conn.
Fairfield pregame notes. .pdf notes.
Michigan pregame notes. .pdf notes.
Live stats. @UMichLacrosse
Live video. Nine Freakin’ bucks and it doesn’t even include commentary. Not sure what the hell some of these small schools are thinking with their profit (or lack thereof) model.

Tempo-Free Profile

With Tempo-Free Lax.com fully up to date, the numbers shown here are adjusted for the strength of schedule (Fairfield has played the nation’s No. 10 toughest schedule to date – surely Michigan will drag that down).

Fairfield 2013
Pace 64.33 (42)
Poss% 48.45 (44)
Off. Eff. 28.48 (40)
Def. Eff. 27.01 (19)
Pyth% 49.27 (37)

So, what do we know about the Stags? They play pretty slowly. That is despite playing some of the faster teams in the country, so that must be by design. That seems to mean they grind out games, and the rest of their profile would appear to correspond with that.

They don’t possess the ball very well (albeit after playing several pretty good possession teams, they’re well below 50% there), their offense is mediocre, and the defense is pretty darn good. All told, they’ve been the No. 37 team in the country to date, though they have plenty of upside when they play against weaker teams – like Michigan.

Let’s take a closer look at the personnel and what makes this team go.

Offense

The Fairfield offense is primarily run through two players, junior attack Jordan Greenfield and senior midfielder Sam Snow. They have 17 (12G, 5A) and 16 (13G, 3A) points, respectively, so both are primarily finishers. Greenfield seems like the bigger danger in this one, what with Michigan’s inability to contain opposing attackmen (and relatively decent ability to slow down midfielders). Sophomore Tristan Sperry has missed one game this season, but could make a surge in scoring with a healthy return to the lineup.

The distributor of the bunch sits right behind those two. Sophomore midfielder Colin McLinden has four goals and eight assists, and is joined by junior combo attack/midfielder Eric Warden (who, based on the stats, seems to play mostly midfield) as the only multi-point scorers on the roster with more assists than goals.

Fairfield assists on .549 of goals scored, so while this is a ball-sharing offense, it seems to be equally slanted toward a one-on-one creating type. That’s given Michigan fits, but it could also mean that the Wolverines are less hesitant to slide early, something that definitely killed them against talented attackmen in the High Point game.

Defense

Junior keeper Jack Murphy has played every second between the pipes for Fairfield this year, and he’s done a damn good job. He’s saving .586 of shots faced (seeing quite a bit of heat too, though not nearly in Gerald Logan’s range), and is a big part of that strong Fairfield defense.

The close defense is led by juniors Toby Armour and Greg Perraut, along with sophomore Tom Lukacovic. Armour has caused eight turnovers this season, but the defense is really not predicated on forcing the offense to turn it over. Rather, they let offenses take bad shots, and allow Murphy to do his thing. Sophomore two-way middie (appears to be mostly a defensive player) Bryan Barry has five caused turnovers on the year, and leads non-goalie Stags in GBs with 20.

One thing to note about GB numbers – Fairfield has been getting killed on the ground this year. That’s one thing that Michigan is particularly horrible at, so we’ll see if the Wolverines can make some improvement or just continue to struggle.

Special Teams

Since the possession game has been Fairfield’s worst aspect this season (thanks in no small part to GB struggles, surely), this is one spot where Michigan might be able to make a little bit of noise. The Wolverines have been even worse in possession this season, but that includes multiple games without their starting faceoff guy, as well as a game against Johns Hopkins and Unstoppable Faceoff God Mike Poppleton. Fairfield’s split draws between Louis DiGiacomo and Michael Roe, and both have been awwwwwwwful. As in, barely scraping .375 bad. And that’s without any Mike Poppleton issues.

Michigan’s faceoff specialists (particularly if Lott is fully healthy and available) should be able to get the clamp, and the communication with wings – and the wings actually picking up ground balls – will be paramount. If U-M doesn’t take advantage of this team on faceoffs, they’re doomed to be the country’s worst by the end of the year.

Fairfield doesn’t clear all that well – they’re in the bottom third of the country – but they likely have the stick skills to have some success against the Wolverines, who seem to have de-emphasized the ride this season, either due to the new clock rules or mortal fear of giving up transition goals. What Fairfield does do very well is ride. Given Michigan’s clearing issues in recent weeks, that could be trouble. Did the Wolverines just have a rough stretch after starting the year well, or were the early-season successes the mirage? If it’s the latter, big trouble awaits in Connecticut this evening.

From a penalty perspective, Fairfield is a relatively clean team, committing fewer infractions than their opposition. The difference in conversion rate between offense and defense is low enough to chalk it up to statistical noise, though there is some indication that the Fairfield man-down defense is a big step down from the even-strength. Getting and maintaining possession (and ultimately converting) on the EMO should be a big priority for U-M.

Big Picture

So, Michigan is going on twenty-one games as a varsity program, with one win to date, and none of them against a good team (the lone victory came against last year’s hapless Mercer squad). This would not only be the second win, first conference win, etc., it would also be the first win against a team that actually appears to have their stuff together.

That’s not to say the Stags aren’t vulnerable, but picking up a victory would be a huge upset here. A season-shifting, monumental upset. The type of upset that this program would hang its hat on. The type of upset that, in all honesty, isn’t going to happen.

Predictions

I’ve scooped myself on the game prediction above, but there are still some micro-level things that I think should go well for Michigan.

  • The Wolverines will do very well on faceoffs, even if Brad Lott isn’t available. 50% is the minimum, and greater than that, depending on strategy, Lott’s availability, etc.
  • When Michigan does get possession, however, I think they turn it over a lot. That’s not Fairfield’s strategy, per se, but Michigan will have to pass it around the horn a lot to find looks, because this Fairfield team doesn’t give up a lot of good ones. The U-M offense just isn’t polished enough to execute that cleanly all game.
  • This will be Michigan’s slowest game of the year to date. I’m not really going out on a limb here, since the Stags have played exactly one game this year (a 74-possession loss to North Carolina) that is faster than Michigan’s slowest game all season.
  • Michigan – as they do with regularity, despite their talent disparity – gets the early lead, but Fairfield recovers by halftime, and chokes the life out of the game by the time it ends.

This is a particularly bad matchup for Michigan if the Wolverines can’t control a whole lot of faceoffs. They won’t see a whole lot of the ball against a slowdown Fairfield offense (and a good Stags ride) if they don’t capitalize on all the chances they get. Still, the chance to excel on faceoffs should keep Michigan in the game to start, before a fade. Fairfield takes this one, 12-4.

Share your predictions, discussion, etc. in the comments.

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Scores and Schedule: March 14, 2013

Rough day for the Detroit women and Aquinas men, but D-3 went well (of course one game had two teams from the Great Lax State meeting up, and required that one of them lose).

Yesterday’s Results

Division-1 Women

Detroit 2, Louisville 19

Division-3 Men

Adrian 10, Oberlin 7
Hope 18, Calvin 5

MCLA-2

Aquinas 6, Liberty 17

Today’s Schedule

Division-1 Men

Michigan @ Fairfield, 7 p.m. (Fairfield, Conn.)

Division-3 Men

Olivet v. Lyndon State

MCLA-1

Davenport @ Arizona, 7 p.m. Mountain (Tucson, Ariz.)

MCLA-2

Grand Valley State v. Liberty, 7 p.m.

Corrections, omissions, etc. always appreciated in the comments.

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