The Next Level: April 2, 2013

Posted on April 2, 2013 by Tim

Our weekly look at Michigan natives who are playing college lacrosse at division-1 institutions this spring:

Air Force 10, Michigan 6

  • Junior attack Tommy McKee (Holt) – Scored two Goals on six Shots (four on goal) and added an Assist, caused one turnover and picked up two ground balls. Also committed one turnover.

Detroit 8, Jacksonville 9 (OT)

  • Sophomore attack Brandon Beauregard (Notre Dame Prep) – Started, recorded an Assist, took three Shots (one on goal), and picked up two ground balls. Also committed two turnovers and one penalty for 0:30.
  • Sophomore midfielder Mike Birney (Detroit Catholic Central) – Started, scored two Goals on five Shots (two on goal), added two Assists, and picked up one ground ball. Also committed four turnovers.
  • Senior midfielder Brandon Davenport (Grosse Pointe North) – Won zero of two faceoffs, picking up one ground ball.
  • Sophomore midfielder Scott Drummond (Birmingham Seaholm) – Started, scored a Goal on four Shots (all on goal), and picked up two ground balls. Also committed two turnovers.
  • Senior defenseman John Dwyer (Detroit Catholic Central) – Started and picked up two ground balls. Also committed two turnovers.
  • Sophomore defenseman Joe Gifford (Notre Dame Prep) – Played, but did not accrue any statistics.
  • Freshman midfielder Andy Hebden (Brother Rice) – Scored a Goal on four Shots (two on goal). Also committed two turnovers.
  • Senior defenseman Jamie Hebden (Brother Rice) – Started, caused one turnover, and picked up two ground balls. Also committed one penalty for 1:00.
  • Senior LSM/D Andrew Khalil (Warren De La Salle) – Played, but did not accrue any statistics.
  • Junior midfielder Joe MacLean (Detroit Country Day) – Caused two turnovers.
  • Freshman attack Nick Melucci (Northville) – Scored two Goals on three Shots (two on goal) and added an Assist. Also committed one penalty for 1:00.
  • Senior midfielder Chris Nemes (Detroit Catholic Central) – Played, but did not accrue any statistics.
  • Junior midfielder Tim Robertson (Notre Same Prep) – Played, but did not accrue any statistics.
  • Sophomore midfielder Tom Sible (Forest Hills Central) – Caused one turnover and picked up one ground ball. Also committed one penalty for 0:30.

Georgetown 17, Marquette 12

  • Junior midfielder Grant Fisher (Brother Rice) – Scored two Goals on three Shots and picked up three ground balls. Also committed one turnover.

Hofstra 11, Dartmouth 9

  • Senior defenseman Michael Hamilton (Brother Rice) – Started, caused one turnover, and picked up two ground balls. Also committed one turnover and three penalties for 2:30.

Marquette 12, Georgetown 17

  • Freshman attack Henry Nelson (Brother Rice) – Scored one Goal on two Shots and picked up two ground balls.

Michigan 6, Air Force 10

  • Sophomore defenseman Mack Gembis (Cranbrook) – Started and picked up one ground ball.
  • Senior defenseman Rob Healy (Notre Dame Prep) – Started, caused two turnovers, and picked up one ground ball.
  • Sophomore attack Will Meter (Brother Rice) – Started, scored two Goals on four Shots (two on goal), caused one turnover and picked up one ground ball. Also committed two turnovers.
  • Sophomore midfielder Thomas Orr (Detroit Catholic Central) – Caused one turnover and picked up one ground ball.
  • Junior midfielder Tom Sardelli (Notre Dame Prep) – Played, but did not accrue any statistics.
  • Senior defenseman Austin Swaney (East Grand Rapids) – Played, but did not accrue any statistics.
  • Freshman defenseman Chris Walker (Brother Rice) – Played, but did not accrue any statistics.

Mount St. Mary’s 4, Sacred Heart 14

  • Senior midfielder Conor Carey (University of Detroit Jesuit) – Played, but did not accrue any statistics.
  • Senior midfielder Jon Marsalese (University of Detroit Jesuit) – Won 13 of 19 faceoffs, picking up four ground balls.

Penn State 11, Bucknell 3

  • Senior Attack Nick Dolik (Brother Rice) – Took two Shots and recorded one Assist.
  • Senior midfielder Danny Henneghan (Brother Rice) – Started and won 10 of 17 faceoffs, picking up five ground balls, and took one shot.

Penn State 7, Villanova 6

  • Senior Attack Nick Dolik (Brother Rice) – Took one Shot. Also committed three turnovers.
  • Senior midfielder Danny Henneghan (Brother Rice) – Started and won 11 of 17 faceoffs, picking up seven ground balls.

Rutgers 9, Providence 10 (OT)

  • Freshman midfielder Jacob Coretti (East Grand Rapids) – Scored one Goal on two Shots, added two Assists, and picked up one ground ball.

As always, feel free to share corrections, additions, or stats from other divisions in the comments.

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Scores and Schedule: April 2, 2013

Posted on April 2, 2013 by Tim

The Detroit women continued their struggles yesterday in the only action. Some D-3 and MCLA action today.

Yesterday’s Results

Division-1 Women

Detroit 6, San Diego 14

Today’s Schedule

Division-3 Men

Hope @ Alma
Olivet v. Trine

Division-3 Women

Alma @ Hope

MCLA-2

Delta @ Northwood, 4 p.m.
Aquinas @ Grand Valley State, 7 p.m.

Corrections, omissions, etc. always appreciated in the comments.

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Michigan 6, Air Force 10

Posted on April 1, 2013 by Tim
Kyle Jackson Michigan Wolverines Air Force Falcons lacrosse Hill Academy

Michigan freshman Kyle Jackson launches a shot in the fourth quarter against Air Force.

In a throwback to last year, Michigan scores first, then endures a long run by the opposition to dig a serious hole. Unlike last year, they got competitive once more the the end of the contest… but close isn’t close enough.

Tempo Free

From the official box score, a look at the tempo-free stats:

Air Force 2013
Air Force Michigan
Faceoff Wins 13 Faceoff Wins 7
Clearing 16-20 Clearing 16-19
Possessions 36 Possessions 30
Goals 10 Goals 6
Offensive Efficiency .278 Offensive Efficiency .200

In a medium-paced game, Michigan didn’t win the possession battle, and didn’t perform more efficiently than the opposition. That’s a guaranteed way to lose the game.

The Wolverines have made strides in all three phases over the course of the year, but this was a slight step back.

Notes

The Michigan offense struggled in a big way against Air Force’s zone. Particularly in the first half, the Wolverines committed a number of silly turnovers against zone defenders, and only got off nine shots for the entire half. There were simply too many execution errors to stay in the game. Later, the players settled in, and the same plays that weren’t working in the first half suddenly saw success. That’s sort of what you’d expect from a young team.

There wasn’t a whole lot of U-M offense in this one, but a few players rebounded to put up some stats. Freshmen Kyle Jackson and Mike Hernandez and sophomore Will Meter all found the back of the net twice. Mike Francia, Evan Glaser, and Thomas Paras each had an assist.

As predicted, Gerald Logan had a pretty good day, even if the statistics weren’t as stellar as they’ve been at times this year. He also faced much less action (21 shots faced is the second-fewest he’s seen this season, behind 19 against Colgate). The defense finally returned to mostly full strength, with J.D. Johnson, Thomas Orr, and Austin Swaney all returning from injury (though Dan Kinek missed the game, a wash with Orr coming back). Logan was, however, singularly responsible for all three Michigan failed clears. Room for improvement.

The Wolverines caused 11 turnovers, led by Chase Brown who had three (and four ground balls for an overall great day). Overall, Michigan benefitted from 19 Air Force turnovers while committing only 12 themselves. That’s serious improvement.

Speaking of incremental improvement, U-M won the ground ball battle for the first time this year. The closest they’d previously come was a 26-29 deficit against Bellarmine. Even if the results aren’t showing on the scoreboard yet, Michigan is getting closer to a point where they eventually will.

Speaking of ground balls, the Falcons pretty much owned the faceoff dot all day. It was a weird combination of factors. First factor: despite Michigan’s overall success on ground balls, they just couldn’t seem to get the easy ones when it came to faceoffs (and overextending themselves trying to force the quick TO also opened up some fast break opportunities for the Falcon offense). Second factor: Despite Brad Lott winning the clamp probably 80% of the time, he had trouble communicating with his wings, or picking up the GB himself if he didn’t pop it out. That’s just an area where you look a Michigan’s youth and kind of shrug. Not much you can do except wait to gain experience.

For the other side, attackmen Mike Crampton and Keith Dreyer has three and two goals, respectively, while each adding an assist. Holt grad Tommy McKee also had two goals and an assist for the Falcons. Goalie Austin Fox stopped 13 of 20 shots faced.

Game Photos

Postgame Quotes

Michigan head coach John Paul

“Obviously, we had trouble with their zone. We anticipated they were going to play zone, it’s the first time we’ve seen one all year. Really, we loved the way we were playing in the first quarter. We loved the pace of the game, liked the possessions we were getting. We just had a horrible second quarter and dug a hole a little bit. I liked the way we fought back at the end. That fourth quarter is as hard as we’ve played all year.”

“There are some good things we did that we’ve been working hard to do. We won the ground ball battle for the first time I think this year. We ended up getting some better shots later in the game.  We kind of learned as we went.”

On faceoffs: “We used a couple guys today that we hadn’t used much this year on the wings, and I wasn’t really happy with the job they were doing, we started going back to some other guys. We just needed to compete a little bit better on the wings. Some of that is communication as well.”

On Gerald Logan: “Any time you start building a program, the goalie is a pretty good way to do it. We’re going to be in good shape in the future with him and the goalies that we have coming in. He did a nice job in the cage. He did keep it close. He made a couple critical mistakes on the clear though, and that’s something he hadn’t been doing in the last couple weeks.”

On Michigan native Tommy McKee, a junior attackman for Air Force: “We’ve seen a few guys from Michigan playing well so far this year, and sure, it’s great. Michigan high school lacrosse is turning out some pretty good players. He’s been a key part of their offense now for three years. It’s good to see, but I’m worried about our team.”

On failing to complete the comeback (unlike the Michigan basketball team against Kansas): “They know they have that in a game where they’re down, they can fix things. It’s possible. The basketball team certainly proved that last night. We take that away from this game: we can come back in games. We’ve got a couple guys who could be that [Burke] in a couple years – and the basketball didn’t dig out of those holes last year. It’s going to take us a little time.”

Freshman midfielder Kyle Jackson

“Obviously, we did a lot of things right in the third and the fourth. We’ve got to do the little things the whole game. We can’t start out flat like we did. We’ve got to come out, do the little things right, and just make sure we’re executing all the plays.”

“The whole time, I just kept telling the guys, ‘don’t get down, don’t get down, we can come back from this.’ After a little while, the team kind of got down a little bit. We just kept trying to motivate ourselves to keep going. Once we got that one goal after it was 9-1, and we made it 9-2, then we got the third one and things started rolling and everyone started participating a little bit more. The environment got a lot better.”

Elsewhere

The official boxscore. Michigan recap. Air Force Recap.

Up Next

There aren’t a whole lot of winnable game left on the schedule. This weekend’s upcoming contest at Delaware can be tentatively considered one of them. Although the Blue Hens are an established program (with a decent history of success), they’ve been a middling unit for a few years now, and have an awful record this year.

Better still, the TempoFreeLax.com numbers hate them way more than the LaxPower numbers do. I prefer the TFL data because I know the methodology and trust it, whereas LaxPower is somewhat mystery-shrouded from my perspective. Also I like the TFL numbers because they give U-M a better shot to win.

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Scores and Schedule: April 1, 2013

Posted on April 1, 2013 by Tim

Davenport gets a signature win – that season-ending tilt against Michigan State is looming larger than ever,

Yesterday’s Results

MCLA-1

Central Michigan @ Purdue – Canceled
Davenport 11, Simon Fraser 9

Today’s Schedule

Division-1 Women

Detroit v. San Diego, 4 p.m. (Columbus, Ohio)

Corrections, omissions, etc. always appreciated in the comments.

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Detroit 8, Jacksonville 9 (OT)

Posted on March 31, 2013 by Tim

While the talking heads on ESPN and the like spout off about Lebron James “not being clutch” or the early-2000s New England Patriots “being clutch,” the numbers gurus stand in complete opposition. They say there is no such thing as “clutch.”

The truth is most likely somewhere in the middle (though far, far slanted toward those who don’t believe in the concept of “clutch”). There are some teams, players, etc. that just know how to win. There are others that seem to to not be capable, despite close calls time after time.

The 2013 Detroit Titans just don’t know how to win, how to finish a game. Is that why they lost against Jacksonville? No, but it was likely a contributing factor, too. The stagnation of a 1-6 record lost out to Jacksonville’s 4-3 mark.

The Dolphins know how to win. They’ve been there before.

Tempo Free

From the official box score, a look at the tempo-free stats:

Jacksonville 2013
Detroit Jacksonville
Faceoff Wins 9 Faceoff Wins 11
Clearing 17-19 Clearing 17-20
Possessions 31 Possessions 33
Goals 8 Goals 9
Offensive Efficiency .258 Offensive Efficiency .273

As expected, this was a moderately slow gane. The Titans were able to hold their own in possession despite a second straight game with the best faceoff specialist, Tyler Corcoran (and the top option in this game, Damien Hicks, won exactly 50%).

Everything was just about as close as can be, including the final score. One more possession in the other direction – had the Titans not failed a clear for just the second time all game in overtime, for example – would have flipped the result.

Notes

The Titans are still learning how to win in competitive games (VMI doesn’t count) and although they didn’t com up with the big moment in the clutch in this one, simply making it to overtime is actually progress for the 2013 edition of UDM lacrosse. Especially given that the best offensive player (Shayne Adams) and probably the third- or fourth-best defensive player (Nick Garippa) are out for the year, the Titans are really coming around.

That said, has there ever been an argument for “clutch” better than two failed clears all game, one in the fourth quarter – down just a couple goals – and one in overtime with the chance to get into the offensive box and set up a play for the win? The failed clear in OT decided the game.

Mike Birney was the offensive star in this one. He recorded two goals and two assists on the day to lead all scorers. However, he also had a bit of a turnover problem, committing four of them. Freshman Nick Melucci was the other offensive star, recording two goals and an assist.

On the other side of things, Alex Maini did not have his greatest day. Zero goals on three shots, zero assists and four turnovers. The load has shifted onto him with Adams’s injury, and that’s a new spotlight. Days like this are going to happen, and fortunately younger Titans have been able to step up and carry the load. Will Maini continue being a focal point of the offense going forward? Maybe not, and a balanced attack would probably be a good thing for this UDM squad.

Contrary to my expectations, Detroit did not force many turnovers in this one. Jacksonville committed 21 all game, and only six forced by UDM players. SSDM Joe MacLean was the team leader with only two CTs. Was the style of play compromised by the lack of Garippa? Was it simply a strategy decision against a Jacksonville team that has pretty good sticks? It certainly didn’t prevent JU from getting its share of good looks.

Based on the highlights (which pretty much only show goals, so take this with a grain of salt), it was not A.J. Levell’s best day. His defense was oddly slow to close out on shooters, but at least three of Jacksonville’s goals – including the OT winner – were simple high-to-high rips from outside 10 yards. Most of the time, those are saves that need to be made.

As mentioned above, Tyler Corcoran did not play in this game, and at this point the status of Detroit’s most successful faceoff specialist is unknown… but at this point it may not matter. After a really rough start to the year, Damien Hicks is rounding into form at the dot. He’s not exactly going to challenge for all-league honors, but given some time, he should be a good one.

Elsewhere

The official boxscore. UDM Recap. Jacksonville Recap. Game highlights:

Up Next

Although UDM will be disappointed to not finish the job against Jacksonville, the second-most winnable game on the schedule (behind last week’s tilt against VMI) is up next. Hosting Manhattan is a must-win, not just for keeping MAAC tournament hopes alive – a post about which coming later this week – but for the simple sake of pride. You don’t lose to Manhattan at home.

It should be a great day in the Motor City, with nice weather expected and a bunch happening on campus. A big win for the Titans will bring them one step closer to a solid end to the season.

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Scores and Schedule: March 31, 2013

Posted on March 31, 2013 by Tim

Light day on tap today (Easter Sunday), and a rough day yesterday, with only Alma men, (11-9 over Bethany) Adrian women (18-6 over Worcester State), and Davenport men (12-6 over Indiana Tech) representing against out-of-state teams.

Yesterday’s Results

Division-1 Men

Detroit 8, Jacksonville 9 (OT)
Michigan 6, Air Force 10

Division-3 Men

Alma 11, Bethany 7
Adrian 7, Otterbein 13
Calvin 8, Beloit 16
Olivet 7, Mount Union 15

Division-3 Women

Adrian 18, Worcester State 6
Olivet 2, Mount Union 18

MCLA-1

Michigan State 9, Simon Fraser 10
Davenport 12, Indiana Tech 6

MCLA-2

Michigan-Dearborn 12, Lawrence Tech 9
Siena Heights 8, Aquinas 0
Northwood 9, Toledo 13

Today’s Schedule

MCLA-1

Central Michigan @ Purdue, 11 a.m.
Davenport v. Simon Fraser, 2 p.m.

Corrections, omissions, etc. always appreciated in the comments.

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Game Column: Wolverines show signs, but fall to Falcons

Posted on March 30, 2013 by Tim

Postgames from the Michigan and Detroit contests this weekend coming up later. Possibly tomorrow, possibly not until after Easter.

Until then, a game column from The Wolverine on Michigan’s loss to Air Force.

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Michigan Preview: Air Force

Posted on March 30, 2013 by Tim

Air Force has been very up-and-down this year. That includes a narrow loss to Denver, but also a loss to Maruqette (a team that Michigan smoked in a starters-on-starters scrimmage in the preseason). The biggest question in this game might be which Air Force team shows up.

 

Air Force Falcons Lacrosse

Is the bird part of the lightning or being struck by it?

Air Force

3 p.m. EST
March 30, 2013
Michigan Stadium (directions)
Live Stats. Live Video ($).
@GreatLaxState @UMichLacrosse
Michigan weekly release and .pdf notes.
Air Force release and .pdf notes.
Previously…

Tempo-Free Profile

The TempoFreeLax.com numbers displayed here are adjusted for strength of schedule. Air Force’s schedule is No. 35 nationally, right near the middle of the pack. That’s a little misleading, since the Falcons have alternated really tough games with absolute breathers: there hasn’t bee a whole lot of in-between (of course, they lost one of those breathers, too).

Air Force 2013
Pace 67.22 (29)
Poss% 47.60 (53)
Off. Eff. 30.53 (29)
Def. Eff. 28.86 (28)
Pyth% 46.93 (37)

From a pace perspective, the Academy is right near the middle of the pack, and slightly above the center. They control well under half of those possessions, however, so opponents’ pace may be determining things rather than the Falcons’ own.

That lack of possession has been one thing that has held them back from being a pretty good team this year. When you lose one-goal games to pretty good Bellarmine and Denver teams, it’s easy to play “what if.”

Offensive and defensive efficiencies are just above the midway point nationally, with the D just a tick better than the O. Neither stands out in any significant way.

All told, the average performances on offense and defense are dragged down just a bit by the poor possession percentage, and Air Force is just that: a little below average.

Offense

The Air Force offense is pretty balanced, with the top five scorers on the list moving down in nearly-perfect increments of three points. It’s an attack-driven unit, with juniors Mike Crampton (21G, 6A) and Holt alum Tommy McKee (22G, 2A) leading the way in points. The next-leading scorer is another attackman in sophomore Keith Dreyer, but unlike his linemates, he’s a true distributor. He has seven goals and 14 assists, and is more a creator than a scorer.

The three starting midfielders round out the remainder of the double-digit points scorers thus far this season. Juniors Erik Smith and Kyle Cassady have 18 and 11 points, respectively. Freshman Christopher Allen has rung up 15 so far.

There’s a big dropoff after the starters, so this isn’t a very deep offense. Nobody outside of junior midfielders Marcus Walker and Michael Curran even has double-digit shots, let alone points.

Dreyer is also the only big assist man on the team, and it’s not one that’s very assist-heavy. Shutting down individual dodgers and limiting Dreyer’s opportunities to distribute are the keys to slowing down this O.

Defense

Junior Matt Puleo, and freshmen Luke Leathers and Alex Warden have been consistent starters for the Air Force defense. It’s not a very experienced unit, nor a particularly big one: only Warden tops 200 pounds. He’s also the team’s leader in caused turnovers with 14 (though Puleo isn’t far behind with 12), and will likely be a star a couple years down the road. Sophomore Kyle O’Brien will get some time as well – it looks like he’s the starting LSM (the Air Force roster doesn’t differentiate).

Brenden Coleman is the key SSDM, based on the numbers. Poles Tom Harris and Jake Lindell also get some run. Like the offense, the defensive unit isn’t particularly deep.

The goalie has been senior Austin Fox. He’s gotten a bit of press as a great keeper in the past, but looking at the numbers, I’m not so sure. He’s barely saving .500 of shots faced, and if the NCAA’s stats website was up-to-date, that would drop him from No. 41 to No. 44 nationally. That ain’t good. His defense doesn’t seem to be doing him a ton of favors (that youth is no coincidence), but given that his personal numbers are way worse than the Air Force defense as a whole… yeah.

Special Teams

Air Force has been below 50% on faceoffs over the course of the season, with starting middie Erik Smith really struggling on draws. However, Bryan Price has come on as a faceoff specialist, and is doing very well: winning .569 of draws is great, and he’s picking up the majority of those wins himself. Should be a good battle with Brad Lott.

Air Force is a mediocre clearing team, and Michigan has alternated a heavy ride with practically no ride at all this year. A game like this is an opportunity to win a few possessions by being aggressive. Air Force doesn’t value their own ride, like, at all, allowing opponents to clear nearly 90% of the time. Michigan’s ride has had its share of struggles, but is mostly pretty good. They should have a good day there.

Air Force defines the stereotype of service academies being really disciplined by committing far fewer penalties than opponents. They convert at a reasonable clip, while their defense is actually excellent on the man-down. While this phase of the game has been an advantage for Michigan most of this year, expect a stalemate here.

Big Picture

Well, still a zero in that win column for the Wolverines. Taking this one would build momentum to probably pick up another one or two games to close out the year, and finish things on a positive note. It would also be the program’s first ECAC victory, a major milestone, obviously.

This is only Michigan’s second time this season playing opponents from the state of Michigan (Penn State boasted Brother Rice products Danny Henneghan and Nick Dolik), and Tommy McKee is probably the best active college player from the state – he’s certainly the most productive. A big contingent from Holt should make it out to the game.

Predictions

The aggregate numbers for Air Force actually make the Falcons look quite a bit better than the impression I get from evaluating the roster and talent itself…

  • Brad Lott wins more than 50% of faceoffs. Although Air Force has discovered something that works in Price, he’s a good-not-great specialist. The Falcons also aren’t excellent on ground balls, so the U-M wings should be able to at least hold their own.
  • Dreyer is a serious problem for the Michigan defense. The dodging attackman (especially one accompanied by linemates who can truly finish) is a bugaboo for this U-M team, and Dreyer is no different.
  • Tommy McKee leads all scorers. Home-state bias? Sure, but he’s leading the Academy in goals on the year, and this is a game where the Falcons should have opportunities, if he’s willing to take them.
  • Gerald Logan outduels Austin Fox, even if the numbers don’t show it. America’s easiest prediction.
  • Michael Hernandez has more goals than turnovers. He’s one of the Wolverines’ best offensive midfielders, so it’s perhaps not the riskiest prediction, but Hernandez is also turnover-prone.  Air Force isn’t great at causing turnovers, so he can keep it clean if he plays within himself.

Like I said, looking at Air Force in-depth leads me to believe they’re not as good – or perhaps “more vulnerable would be the better way to phrase it – than the No. 40 ranking in the nation would lead you to believe. However, I’ll still count on a Michigan after I see one. Falcons don’t pull away until the end, but win 11-9.

Share your predictions, discussion, etc. in the comments.

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Scores and Schedule: March 30, 2013

Posted on March 30, 2013 by Tim

These posts are a lot shorter with high schools on spring break.

Yesterday’s Results

Division-1 Women

Detroit 6, Cincinnati 16

MCLA-2

Siena Heights 18, Northwood 3
Ferris State v. Delta (scrimmage)

Today’s Schedule

Division-1 Men

Detroit @ Jacksonville, 1 p.m. (Jacksonville, Fla.)
Michigan v. Air Force, 3 p.m. (Michigan Stadium)

Division-3 Men

Alma v. Bethany
Adrian @ Otterbein
Calvin v. Beloit
Olivet @ Mount Union

MCLA-1

Central Michigan v. Vanderbilt, 1 p.m. (West Lafateyette, Ind.)
Michigan State v. Simon Fraser, 7 p.m. (Oxford High School)
Davenport v. Indiana Tech, 3 p.m. (Siena Heights University)

MCLA-2

Lawrence Tech v. Michigan-Dearborn, 10 a.m. (Siena Heights University)
Aquinas @ Siena Heights, 12:30 p.m.
Northwood @ Toledo, 1 p.m.

Corrections, omissions, etc. always appreciated in the comments.

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Detroit Preview: Jacksonville

Posted on March 29, 2013 by Tim

Detroit has picked itself up off the deck (at least for now) by picking up the first win of the season. However, Jacksonville ain’t VMI, so this team will be challenged in a big way, especially on the road. However, this game is also an opportunity to build serious momentum going into the end of the year.

 

Jacksonville University Dolphins Lacrosse

Fear Flipper!

Jacksonville

1 p.m. EST
March 30, 2013
Jacksonville, Fla.
Live Stats. Live Video.
@DetroitML – caution: has not tweeted yet, no idea if it ever actually will.
Ticket information.
Detroit pregame notes. Gameday Central.
Jacksonville pregame notes.

Tempo-Free Profile

The TempoFreeLax.com numbers displayed here are adjusted for strength of schedule. Jacksonville’s schedule is No. 61 (third-from-last) nationally.

Jacksonville 2013
Pace 62.57 (52)
Poss% 50.91 (22)
Off. Eff. 26.99 (52)
Def. Eff. 36.52 (55)
Pyth% 28.08 (51)

Jacksonville is pretty bad all around – though better than the Titans in many aspects. The offense and defense are both near the bottom of the country, with the offense juuuust a bit better, outside of the national bottom 10.

What has allowed Jacksonville to remain competitive – and indeed win more than half of their games – is doing well enough in the possession game. Decent faceoffs and a great clear can go a long way.

Of course, that’s not the whole story. The Dolphins have also played some clunkers – High Point and Marquette among them – and the stats looked much better in those games than they did in uncompetitive losses to Duke and Robert Morris.

Offense

The Jacksonville offense is not dominated by one or two guys – and in many ways that’s much scarier than knowing the one player to shut down in order to stop an offense. Five players are in double-digit points, but non over 15 yet.

The leading scorer by a hair is senior midfielder TJ Kenary. He has nine goals and six assists, just beating out classmate and linemate Cameron Mann, who has nine and five. The third leading scorer on the team is yet another midfielder, David Goldman, a junior who boasts seven goals and five assists.

Shockingly, the fourth leading scorer is also a midfielder. Junior Conor Igoe has seven goals and four assists. He’s listed as a starter at both midfield and attack across different games, but for the most part JU’s starting lineup lists four starting midfielders and two attackmen.

Getting into that attack unit, sophomore Ari Waffle and senior James Trentini have gotten every start thus far in 2013, and have put up ten and nine points, respectively.

In addition to its utter lack of reliance on the attack unit, this is also a team that doesn’t rely on feeders, either. A defenseman and faceoff specialist Dan McNulty are the only players on the entire roster with more assists than goals. Oddly enough, Jacksonville isn’t that low on assist totals. They simply spread the wealth.

With Jacksonville’s plethora of midfield scoring options, two of them will get poles when JU is going to a 4-mid, 2-attack offense, but the short-stick d-middies will have their work cut out for them. Unfortunately, the Titans should be down one Nick Garippa in this game, so that makes the matchup quite a bit tougher.

Defense

Sophomores Austin Curtis and Charlie Archer and senior Tanner Gard are your starting close defense. It’s junior LSM Tyler Black that leads the team in caused turnovers with 11, though. Curtis has added seven of his own, while the other close D starters have six apiece.

This is a defense – like the Titans’ defenses of the recent past – that creates a lot of turnovers. That’s going to be their game, and with Detroit’s predilection for committing TOs… well, it’s easy to see what one of the keys to the game will be.

Between the pipes, it’s been mostly Pete DeLuca. He did miss the Duke game (in which his backups got shelled for 21 goals on 28 shots – neither has played since), but has played every minute outside of Durham, N.C. His stats are good-not-great with a .574 save percentage in not that much action, but the Dolphins’ style of defense likely means he needs to stand on his head from time-to-time, so that makes it a little more impressive.

Special Teams

Jacksonville has been a one-man show on faceoffs, for the most part, and it’s a pretty good show. Dan McNulty wins .533 of his draws, and controls a lot of the GBs himself (that would be an interesting stat to have a chance to look at, but faceoff specialists who are also offensive or defensive midfielders full-time would skew it). He has two assists and five shots among his 34 GBs, so even if he does control, he’s not a huge offensive threat. Still, controlling possess and playing slowly will be cornerstones of the JU strategy.

Jacksonville’s clear is pretty good, something that’s a little surprising for a recent expansion team, especially one playing far from the hotbeds. However, their 88.00% mark is 17th-best in the country. Coming the other direction, Jacksonville doesn’t put a lot of effort into the ride, so limiting self-inflicted wounds will be key for UDM.

Jacksonville commits approximately equivalent penalties to the opposition, but as we know, the Titans are almost always going to be the more-penalized squad, regardless of opponent. Jacksonville’s man-up offense is kind of bad, and the man-down is mediocre at best.

Big Picture

As mentioned at the top, winning this game give the Titans a chance to close the year with a serious run, after failing to win any of the first six games. Outside of a game against Siena in a couple weeks, all the games remaining on the schedule are winnable – or better.

That’s especially true of next weekend’s Manhattan game, but Michigan, Marquette, and Canisius aren’t exactly going to strike fear into the hearts of the Titans. Beat Jacksonville, and a trip to the MAAC tournament is likely, and a very strong close to the year.

Predictions

Despite the opportunity in front of the Titans, I see Jacksonville as the clear favorite in this one.

  • The offense moved in fits and starts last week against VMI’s Worst Defense Ever, and Jacksonville is a stiffer test (if only by a bit). The Titans, however, are more used to playing without Shayne Adams, so some of those rough patches should get smoothed over.
  • The defense, on the other hand, will be adjusting to life without Nick Garippa, who was injured against VMI last week. With a skilled set of opposing midfielders, that’s a scary proposition. Jacksonville will make it look easier than it should be a couple times.
  • The Titans will likely not stay with last week’s aggressive strategy that paid off against VMI. Caused turnovers were the path to success for this defense against VMI, but this Jacksonville team has much better sticks (evidenced by the clearing ability), and Detroit isn’t at 100% with defensive personnel.
  • Faceoffs could get ugly, depending on which Titans are available to take draws in this one.

Overall, this is a winnable game. It should be a low-scoring one with the pace Jacksonville likes to use and UDM down soem of the players who would otherwise help them play fast. It’s a battle of bad-on-bad when it comes to Detroit’s end of the field, and bad-on-“I don’t know how they’ll be without Garippa” on the other. Jacksonville’s home field advantage and possession advantage make the difference in a 9-5 Dolphins win.

Share your predictions, discussion, etc. in the comments.

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