This is one of the most interesting first-round matchups of the MCLA Tournament. The Spartans want to continue their climb into the realm of national contenders, while Florida State wants to prove that the Southeast is no dead zone for lacrosse.
The scheduling philosophies were completely different this season, as Michigan State traveled across the continent and the midwest for several games, whereas Florida State played exactly 3 games outside the state of Florida. If the Seminoles can pull the upset, it definitely speaks to the (unexpected) strength of the SELC.
Florida State
Tuesday 7PM MDT, Dick’s Sporting Goods Park – Streamed on CL.tv.
Record: 18-1 (4-0 SELC Southeast)
Rankings: 11 (Seeding), 8 (adidas), 9 (Prodigy), 6 (Computer).
Common Opponents: Florida (W 22-11)
Schedule
The teams haven’t faced many common opponents, mostly a product of SELC teams (aside from Florida) refusing to travel out of the Southeast for non-conference games. The Spartans opened up their season with a 12-6 neutral(ish)-site win over Florida – the Gators’ fifth game of the year. FSU pasted Florida 22-11 in the regular season finale for both squads.
Both teams played mostly weaker competition in-conference, with the Spartans taking on Michigan twice, and Florida State playing Virginia Tech at a neutral site and Central Florida at home each squad’s toughest tests.
The difference, then, comes in the non-conference. The Spartans traveled to the West Coast to take on Simon Fraser, Oregon, and Sonoma State (the latter a head-scratching loss for MSU, without which they’d be a top-5 seed in the tournament), and also going to Illinois to take on the Illini and perennial power – despite this season’s struggles – Minnesota-Duluth. The Spartans also played BYU, Colorado State, Arizona State, and others at home or semi-home locations. Florida State played Texas at a neutral site and welcomed Buffalo to Tallahassee, but the remainder of their non-conference games were against weak competition, including the likes of SMU, a 6-4 Boston U team, Chico State, and 5-9 Washington. None of those games took place away from Tallahassee.
The Spartans’ strength of schedule is better by a factor of about 10, but they also managed to lose more games – including some that they definitely shouldn’t have – in the course of playing those teams.
Personnel
On a points-per-game basis, the top 7 Seminoles are seniors (though one of them has another year of eligibility remaining). They’re losing an absurd amount of offense after this season. However, we’re worried about this year, not next. Attackmen AJ Drivas, Josh Eustice, and Tyler Richey are atop the chart. All are more goal-scorers than feeders, with Richey almost exclusively a shooter and the other two much more balanced. The assists are much more midfield-driven, as Stewart Lundeen has more helpers than goals, while Brett Angerer and Luke Donovan are close to that.
Defensively, the Seminoles again show off an experienced unit. Junior Ben Pelton is joined by seniors Jack Mata and Joe Zorvich in the starting defense, and LSM Ryan Plank is a senior as well. This is truly an all-or-nothing year for the Seminoles, unless they have a lot of talent in the program that just isn’t getting playing time.
FSU’s starting keeper is redshirt junior John Goodrich, but four other goalies have played for the Seminoles. Goodrich is making 11.79 saves per game while allowing 6 goals in each contest, for a .659 save percentage. In two games against Central Florida – the most talented offensive team FSU saw this year – the Seminoles gave up 14 and 10 goals.
On faceoffs, redshirt junior Jason Castellanos has taken the lion’s share of draws, and has won more than 70% of them. Strength of schedule comes into play, but that’s impressive either way.
Predictions
Michigan State is the more-tested team this year, but Florida State is also accustomed to winning almost every time they hit the field. Fortunately, Michigan State would be the best team, (by far) that FSU has seen this year, whereas Florida State is certainly not to the caliber of Michigan, Colorado State, Arizona State… etc.
The start is key to this game. If either team gets off to a strong start, they can build confidence that either playing the best during the regular season or not losing a whole lot during the regular season proves profitable in the postseason. I think the Spartans will be more equipped to come out and perform, and emerge with a 14-12 victory.