MCLA Bracketology: 2011 Penultimate Edition

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The first automatic bids to the 2011 MCLA Tournament are sealed:

• Texas – Beat North Texas 26-3 and SMU 12-5, winning the LSA Autobid.
• Florida State – Beat Georgia Tech 17-4, UCF 14-10, and Clemson 11-6, winning the SELC Autobid.
• Minnesota-Duluth – Beat MSU-Mankato 15-6 and Minnesota 11-6, winning the UMLL Autobid.

There are no other LSA or UMLL teams in consideration for an at-large bid, so Texas and Duluth have sealed 1-bid leagues. The SELC had a couple other teams in contention going into the weekend. With their seasons wrapped up, the resumes are complete:

• Virginia Tech – Beat South Carolina 11-10, lost to Clemson 8-10.
• Central Florida – Beat Georgia 12-10, lost to Florida State 10-14.
• Clemson – Beat West Virginia 16-8 and Virginia Tech 10-8. Lost to Florida State 6-11.

Movement for other bubble teams from last week’s bracketology post:

• Boston College (PCLL auto) – Beat UConn 8-6. Moved down 2 spots in the polls.
• Cal Poly (WCLL auto) – Lost to Chico State 12-15. Moved down 1 spot in the polls.
• Oregon (PNCLL auto) – Beat Montana 34-4. Moved up 1 spot in the polls.
• Colorado – DNP.
• Utah – Lost to BYU 5-18. Moved down 1 spot in the polls. Another loss to the Cougars this weekend should eliminate the Utes from at-large contention.
• UC Santa Barbara – Beat San Diego State 19-9. Moved up 1 spot in the polls.

Some big results, with a few teams eliminated from contention, and some severely damaged. Here is this week’s full Prodigy poll, with change from last week noted:

• 1. University of Michigan
• 2. BYU
• 3. Colorado State University +1
• 4. Arizona State University -1
• 5. Chapman University -1
• 6. Michigan State University
• 7. University of Colorado +1
• 8. University of Texas +1
• 9. Florida State University +1
• 10. Boston College -2
• 11. University of Oregon +1
• 12. Cal Poly -1
• 13. UC Santa Barbara +1
• 14. Utah -1
• 15. Clemson University +3
• 16. University of Central Florida
• 20. Illinois
• 25. Minnesota-Duluth

A few movements, so here’s what the latest bracket looks like:

Projected 2011 MCLA Tournament Bracket

I switched seeds for Florida State and Boston College (it’s important to note that BC’s “true seed” is 10, which puts them squarely on the bubble should they fail to win the PCLL) to avoid a regular-season matchup. I also swapped UCSB and Utah to avoid a first-round SLC matchup between the Gauchos and Arizona State – the teams are playing in the first round of the SLC playoffs this weekend. It’s unlikely that Utah and UCSB both make the tournament field anyway, but I’ll leave it in limbo for now.

The current bubble teams (assuming they do not win conference autobids) are Boston College, UCSB, Utah, Clemson, and Buffalo. Virginia Tech is ranked ahead of UB, but the Hokies are done playing, and their resume can’t get any better, whereas the Bulls could possibly even win the PCLL.

The final weekend of the regular season should see plenty of questions resolved:

• In the CCLA, can Pitt or Central Michigan pull a monumental upset, and grab a third bid for the conference? (answer: no).
• Which GRLC team will win the automatic bid and serve as the conference’s only representative in Denver?
• Will Boston College seal up the PCLL autobid? If not, can their resume survive an early-round upset to keep the Eagles in the at-large field?
• If Oregon doesn’t win the PNCLL (likely ceding the title to Simon Fraser), is their resume good enough to earn an autobid?
• Can Utah pull an upset in the RMLC playoffs to stay in the at-large discussion?
• Will the SLC send anyone other than ARizona State and Chapman to Denver? UCSB is currently in the conversation, but an ugly loss to the Sun Devils could change that.
• Has Cal Poly SLO done enough to seal an at-large bid, should they fall in the WCLL Tournament? The loss to Chico State draws that into question.

Of course, the bubble teams (SELC squads, Buffalo, UCSB) are rooting for all chalk in conference tournaments, to hopefully keep some at-large slots available.