Michigan wraps up its short spring break roadtrip in South Carolina this afternoon, taking on Furman. Can the Wolverines enter the home stretch of the non-conference schedule on a hot streak?
Furman
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March 4, 2017, 1 p.m. EST
Greenville, S.C.
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The Paladins
Furman feels pretty similar to a lot of the other recently-added-to-D1 Southern teams: they started weak for a year or two, got much stronger, much faster than anyone expected… and couldn’t maintain that momentum and now just aren’t very good.
This edition is 1-4, albeit with a couple pretty good losses (by four to UNC, by six on the road at Ohio State), but a couple that aren’t so hot (losing at home to Vermont – albeit in overtime – and also to Sacred Heart). The win is also over one of the nation’s worst teams, Mount St. Mary’s. So: not a particularly good team.
Offense
The Paladins actually have almost no offensive players who have started every single game, but it’s still pretty easy to determine who the key factors are in the offense.
Freshman midfielder Lou Yovino and sophomore linemate William Holcomb have combined to account for more than a third of the team’s total shots, with nine goals each and a single assist between them (from Yovino): they are your finishers. Fellow midfielder David Williamson has five goals and a single assist, indicating that this is not a dodge-and-feed scheme from the midfield. They finish plays that are set up by the attackmen, or shoot off their own dodges.
At attack, senior Graham Dabbs has five goals and three assists, while junior Jonah Moore has four goals and five assists. The high-volume feeder (and the only player in the offensive end of the field to start every game thus far) is senior Steven Wierzbicki. At 5-9, 160 pounds, he’s likely to be your classic dodge-from-X assist man.
Defense
As bad as the offense has been, this isn’t a particularly weak Furman D. They’re right around .306 in defensive efficiency despite games against pretty good OSU and North Carolina teams (and perhaps with LaxPower’s ratings behind a paywall now, it’s time to get into the tech side of things and see if we can re-initiate TFL so we’d have fully-adjusted numbers there).
Goalie Alec Van de Bovenkamp is a big part of that success on defense: his save percentage is only .569 – good-not-great – but he’s replaced Reilly McDermott, who was struggling under .300 to start the year, which has resulted in a huge leap forward for the D.
Seniors Tommy Farnish and Joe Stone have started all five games with poles. Stone is an LSM, and the team’s leader in caused turnovers (seven in five games isn’t half-bad), and has a goal on three shots so far. He may not be the most dangerous pole with the ball in his stick, but he’s at least a willing participant in the offense. Brandon Bank, a freshman, is among the leading GB acquirers on the team, despite no starts, so it’s likely he’s fourth pole who is getting the snub in the starting lineup so Stone can be listed.
SSDMs John Vandenberg and J.J. McDaid both have double-digit ground balls with just four shots total between them (all From Vandenberg). Vandenberg does have a bit of offensive willingness, but is a caused turnover specialist and a key to the defense – he’ll likely cover the Wolverines’ best offensive midfielder that doesn’t draw a pole (likely Schlosser getting poled with Curran covered by Vandenberg).
Special teams
Part of the quality of Furman’s defense is based on the fact that their ride has been quite good. They’re holding opponents to .792 (generally, under .800 is outstanding), and while the strength-of-schedule factor comes into play, it’s something to watch regardless. The flipside of that is that they’re only OK at clearing themselves, so they give away enough of those possessions anyway.
The faceoff game has gone very well. Senior (this is a pretty senior heavy team, making it all the more disappointing that they aren’t particularly good) Hill Blaze has taken all but a handful of draws, winning .588 of them, though without getting a ton of his own GBs. My working theory – and one that I haven’t tested with any scientific rigor, so it could be totally my imagination – is that specialists who don’t get a ton of their own ground balls are more likely to be up-and-down on a given day, because they’re relying more on teammates and sheer luck.
The Paladins are committing half the penalties that opponents are (though even opponents’ four per game is not super-high, so they’re just a clean team, in a lot of respects), but their man-up offense is really bad – .219 conversion rate – and the MDD is allowing opponents to convert 60% of the time. They want to stay out of the box themselves, and don’t particularly care if they get EMO opportunities.
Overall
Furman has a bit of talent, so while they aren’t expected to be a particularly good team, it’s a little surprising to me that the results have been quite as bad as they are. Especially when taking into account that the Paladins were relatively competitive with Ohio State and North Carolina, they have no business losing to Vermont and Sacred Heart in the manner that they did. They could round into form and be a breakout team in the SoCon, but this is also a squad that shouldn’t give the Maize and Blue a ton of trouble.
From Michigan’s perspective, winning this game is imperative, not just to avoid the bad loss (something a Michigan team hasn’t done in six years, based on my memory alone), but to build solid record as conference play approaches. Winning this one sets up a nice game with Penn next weekend, before a should-win against UMBC to take us into Big Ten play. An 8-1 Michigan team going into the conference games would surely be ranked, even if only one or two of the wins will be good ones.
Predictions
I’m not a huge fan of this Furman team, which feels like it’s underachieved. On the flipside, it could be rounding into form.
- The Paladins are too dependent on outside shooting to make a huge dent on this Michigan defense. A very good goalie and some outstanding SSDMs should be able to take away the bombs of Yovino and Holcomb, and Tommy Heidt will notch a save percentage over .667.
- Furman’s strength on defense is in the SSDMs, for the most part (though the senior-laden close D isn’t bad), but that plays into Michigan’s strengths, as well. A double-hatty day for Ian King and Brent Noseworthy is possible. They could also be draw-and-kick type players, so look for King at least to notch a couple assists. A five-point day for U-M’s all-time leading scorer?
- Michigan’s clear has been mostly good, with some really questionable moments – especially on the road Thursday evening. Look for the Paladins to ride hard in hopes of getting easy opportunities for an offense that hasn’t broken out yet, and to deny Michigan the opportunity to settle in and run its own offense. That should lead to a pretty fast-paced day, with heavy rides either being broken for unsettled goals, or succeeding to produce fast-break chances the other way.
- I think Mike McDonnell is a good faceoff specialist, but what Blaze has done so far with a mediocre supporting cast around him is not to be discounted. This could be a pretty good battle on draws, and one that may end up close to 50/50, unless McDonnell’s wing play is a difference-maker.
Am I ready to stop giving the caveat “Michigan should win, but we’ve seen them drop this one over the years?” Not quite yet. However, based on the teams’ relative strength so far this year, it’s pretty clear which the better squad is. Unless all goes to Hell, Michigan wins, 16-7.