Michigan gets a chance to back up one of its wins from last year. It would be the second opponent over whom the Wolverines have more than one win (Mercer is the other).
Bellarmine
Fear the stylized Knights!
Feb. 7, 2015. 1 p.m. EST
Oosterbaan Fieldhouse
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Tempo-Free Profile
The TempoFreeLax.com numbers displayed here are last year’s, on account of the “there is literally nothing yet from this year on either team” factor in play. Bellarmine was a middling team last year (No. 31 nationally), actually coming in well ahead of Michigan despite the head-to-head loss. Part of that was due to strength of schedule (though the numbers are adjusted, if one team plays a handful of top-15 teams and gets blown out in a couple of them, and the other uses its non-conference game to play exclusively bad teams, it’s going to reflect overall because there isn’t just a large enough overall sample size). Anyway, on with the show. Numbers are adjusted for opposition:
| Bellarmine 2014 | |
|---|---|
| Pace | 62.67 (43) |
| Poss% | 49.87 (40) |
| Off. Eff. | 28.63 (48) |
| Def. Eff. | 28.92 (21) |
| Pyth% | 48.81 (31) |
Bellarmine was not a fast team last year, nor did the Knights do a good job controlling the ball. that means not a whole lot of offensive possessions…
And they didn’t do a whole lot with those, either. Offensive efficiency was their worst aspect last season. They had solid games last year, but many of them against very poor defenses.
Fortunately, given that many of the (few) possessions in their games came in the sticks of the opposition, they had a very good defense. They held eight of 12 opponents to single digits, though thanks to that anemic offense, they still lost one such game and all four when the opposition cracked 10.
Offense
Although Bellarmine was picked to win the conference in the inaugural year of the Southern, they are clearly not expected to do it with offense. Onetime Michigan attack commit, sophomore Austin Shanks is their only pre-season all-conference player on that side of the ball (oddly listed at midfielder, a position he is not expected to play for the Knights this year).
Shanks was the No. 3 scorer for the team last year, with fellow freshman Tucker Ciessau one of those beating him out. Now sophomores, they should be the deadly duo. Both were much more finishers than feeders last year, with a 4:1-ish ratio between goals and assists for each.
The Nos. 2 and 4 leading scorers both departed, leaving senior midfielder Ryan Scinta as the only other returning double-digit point scorer. The offense was very concentrated among five guys, with the attackmen finishing and the midfielders feeding. Scinta will have to have linemates step up, and the attackmen may need to be a little more versatile.
Whatever the case, there are experienced players who simply have to improve output: with new feeders presumably stepping in, just about every other point-getter from last year returns.
Defense
Bellarmine boasts two defensive players on the preseason all-conference list in close defender Colin Hart and LSM Bobby Schmitt (the latter of whom could be the best player in the conference this side of High Point keeper Austin Giesler, in personal e-pinion). Schmitt is also a threat offensively, with seven assists and 16 shots – though no goals – last year.
The issue is most of the rest of the defense. I’ve touched on its quality from a year ago, but gone is goalie Will Haas, gone is 2014 second-team all-ECAC pole Sean Joyce. That’s half the defensive unit out the door, so new players will have to prove themselves.
Top SSDM Reid Wesley is back, and another major contributor (when healthy last year, at least) Ben Plisco is just a junior, so he could take another step forward. Two losses and returning a conference player of the year candidate on that side of the ball probably isn’t bad.
Special Teams
Bellarmine was so bad on faceoffs last year, winning just 42.68% (No. 52 nationally), including a 3/24 performance against Louisville native Brad Lott last year – one that could be pretty comfortably blamed for losing the Knights the game, given the close score. The best of bad options (Stephen Soriano) has graduated, but little-used Grant Beczkalo put up slightly better numbers albeit with a smaller sample size, so there might not be too much of a step back (also because there isn’t a whole lot of room to move in that direction). GB play has been Michigan’s bigger faceoff issue in the past year-plus though, so Schmitt will have to be controlled in this phase of the game.
The Knights cleared at an elite level last year – again, great to have an outstanding LSM – second-best in the nation. With most of the short-stick midfielders and Schmitt returning, that should continue. Bellarmine is also one of the few teams nationally that puts more than a token effort into riding nowadays, so that aggression let them harass opponents into fails on nearly 15% of attempts.
Bellarmine committed barely more penalties than opponents last year, so their style of play (except in contrast to Michigan’s relatively clean brand) doesn’t put them at a disadvantage. They did not score very well on the EMO, and gave up some goals man-down, so when things are uneven, it could be a slight advantage Michigan.
Big Picture
This is the first game of the year, giving it a special level of importance. Given that it’s a winnable one for a Michigan team that is taking yet another step up in competition faced this year, and it suddenly looks a lot like a must-win.
U-M has 5-6 winnable games on the schedule, and for the season to turn out as fans and those close to the program would like, you have to take care of your share of those ones (while hopefully picking off an opponent that doesn’t expect it). This is Michigan’s chance to show that the program continues to progress.
Predictions
Michigan won this one last year, and although Bellarmine should be improved, Michigan should take even bigger steps forward with fewer personnel losses.
- Michiga fans are reminded why they missed Gerald Logan so much last year. Sure, they didn’t mind having a good goalie in Robbie Zonino, but a great one like Logan can be a difference-maker. Other players who missed last year (namely Charlie Keady) are also upgrades.
- Brad Lott does not win 21 of 24 faceoffs. Last year’s Bellarmine game was something of an anomaly, and given the Knights’ talent on the wing in Schmitt, it’s simply tough to expect that level of dominance.
- Michigan’s rising talent level – particularly on offense – is felt. The Wolverines had a pretty balanced output against Bellarmine last year with 12 different players scoring or assisting, and with more horses in the stable comes more output from the group on the whole.
Especially in Oosterbaan Fieldhouse, where Michigan is very comfortable and other teams are very not (see: MCLA dominance, Cornell last year, Penn State the previous year), I like the Wolverines in this game. Since they won’t dominate the possession game like last year, they’ll have to make strides in other areas, but will do enough to take the 11-9 win.
Share your predictions, discussion, etc. in the comments.