Scrimmage season is upon us, with the Wolverines taking on two opponents (I’m not spending much time previewing D-3 Denison) at Oosterbaan Fieldhouse tomorrow. U-M smoked the Marquette Golden Eagles the week before beginning the 2013 season… and went on to achieve less than MU did over the course of the year. Scrimmage can be weird.
Marquette
Not many good Marquette lacrosse logos available on the internet :/
1 p.m. EST
Feb. 1, 2014
Oosterbaan Fieldhouse
Free Admission
@GreatLaxState, @UMichLacrosse, @MarquetteMLax
Tempo-Free Profile
Marquette is a regular-season opponent for Detroit, so get used to seeing these numbers: they’ll be back Monday(ish). The TempoFreeLax.com numbers displayed here are last season’s adjusted for strength of schedule. Marquette played a schedule last year that was just about dead center in the middle of the country when it comes to difficulty (No. 31, compared to Michigan’s No. 19).
| Marquette 2013 | |
|---|---|
| Pace | 66.07 (34) |
| Poss% | 47.78 (52) |
| Off. Eff. | 27.79 (46) |
| Def. Eff. | 37.70 (58) |
| Pyth% | 22.79 (55) |
MU achieved well above expectations in the W-L column last year. They played a slightly-tougher-than-average slate, and their pythagorean win percentage (which determines the percentage of games you’d expect them to win against an average schedule) estimated barely more than three wins in their 14 tries – they got five. Part of that was losing uncompetitively against some of the best teams in the country while beating the weak sisters of the schedule – high variance in team quality there.
Either way, Marquette wasn’t all that good last year. The possession mark was poor, thanks to struggles facing off an an uninspiring ride (they actually cleared quite well for a new program).
The defense was really poor, barely climbing out of the bottom five in the country. That’s no surprise with a new program, but it was pleasantly surprising to see an offense that could actually do things in year one. That’s a product, in part, of having two years’ recruiting on campus (and some high-profile transfers) by the time you ever play a game.
The Team
Marquette already has a scrimmage under its belt, taking on High Point in a game that not only didn’t include full statistics, but in which they didn’t even keep score (usually you’ll see an “unofficial score” at least mentioned). They should be a bit more ready for actual game action than Michigan.
Fifth-year senior (and Presbyterian transfer) Tyler Melnyk, and sophomore Conor Gately, both attackmen, are the leading returning scorers, and were neck-and-neck last season atop the Golden Eagles’ leaderboard with 38 and 36 points, respectively. The 6-0, 195-pound Melnyk is more the finisher, and while Gately can either score or distribute, he leans toward assisting. No. 4 scorer Bryan Badolato, the third attackman, probably would have been right up there with them (a true finisher with 15 goals and just three assists on the year), but the Sacred Heart transfer missed nearly half the year for an undisclosed reason. Brother Rice alum Henry Nelson was one of the first attackmen off the bench, with six goals and an assist on the year.
Redshirt sophomore midfielder Kyle Whitlow was a true gunner with 18 goals and five assists. Fellow midfielder Connor Bernal had a similar distribution, but is no longer with the program. Beyond that quintet, a random assortment of players took turns stepping up here and there. Look for the Golden Eagles to rely on the four returners, while trying to develop a true second and third offensive midfielder.
Defensively, senior JJ Sagl (a Goucher College transfer) returns. He played all but about a game and a half of last year, and though his numbers were really bad (.447 save%, 12.71 GAA), some of the blame for that has to fall on the defense. Either way, Gerald Logan he ain’t.
Redshirt sophomore Liam Byrnes is the unquestioned star among the returning defenders, coming off a season in which he caused 18 turnovers and picked up a team-leading 60 GBs – Marquette doesn’t specify, but I suspect he played a lot of LSM (or at least was a faceoff wing). Classmate B.J. Grill wasn’t far behind in CTs with 13, but he only generated 18 ground balls. The third defenseman from last year is now departed in the form of Charley Gargano. Marquette will have to find someone to replace him. Sophomore Jacob Richard was the top short-stick defender last year, and look for that to continue.
The faceoff unit was a struggle for Marquette last year. Hofstra transfer Cullen Cassidy was last year’s most-deployed option, but he was pretty bad, and the fifth-year senior might see a decreased role this season. Brother Rice alum K.C. Kennedy and fellow sophomore Paul Riportella should get more run, since they were better last year.
Big Picture
This is a preseason scrimmage, and therefore it will ultimately be pretty meaningless. Michigan mopped the floors of Oosterbaan with Marquette last year (being a human mop on FieldTurf is reportedly a very unpleasant experience), and the Golden Eagles went on to have a much better season than did the Wolverines.
A lot of factors went into those disparate fates, but either way, we see that a scrimmage probably doesn’t indicate a whole lot about how the season is going to go. It’ll be nice to see some lacrosse – and the new faces on the field – but we’ll have to wait a few more days to see just how much Michigan has improved.
Predictions
It’s fruitless to make predictions about a scrimmage – will the coaches pull starters after a quarter? half? – but I’m in the predictin’ business.
- Robbie Zonino is going to be a downgrade from Gerald Logan in the net for Michigan. That’s no insult to Zonino, but Logan really is just that good. He wasn’t as highly ranked out of high school, but he was clearly a guy that Inside Lacrosse missed on.
- Michigan’s offense was bad for the second straight year (no surprise with a new coordinator and losing a lot of experience), but the defense improved. Another step forward – hopefully with a bit better luck on the health front – is possible, though without Logan backstopping the unit, I don’t see it happening.
- One guy that I think will make IL look very smart, on the other hand, is freshman midfielder Mikie Schlosser. He’s been varying degrees of banged up during fall ball and early spring practice, but could be one of the better offensive midfielders on the team. If he’s as good as advertised, he could provide a third formidable midfielder, and third young one along with the well-known sophomore duo Kyle Jackson and Mike Hernandez.
- IF Schlosser can develop as advertised, that might give fifth-year Thomas Paras the ability to move back to attack (where he excelled early in his career), or just give the first deep midfield unit of Michigan’s varsity existence. Paras missed most of last year, so adding him back to the lineup is a boost wherever he plays.
I think Michigan will take the next big step forward this year, and while that might mean only 3-4 regular-season wins, they showed last preseason that even a bad U-M squad could take it to Marquette. I think improvement from both squads will see a closer score, but the same result. Michigan ‘wins’ 13-9.
Share your predictions, discussion, etc. in the comments.