Since we’re stil in the early stages of the season, the preseason look should be an accurate snapshot of what we know about the Nittany Lions. For more detail, you’ve come to the right place…
We want the Lion!
Penn State
1:00 p.m. Feb. 18, 2012
University Park, Pa.
Gametracker stats
2011
7-7 (4-2 CAA). #26 LaxPower.
Lost to UMass in CAA Tournament (9-10 OT)
2012
0-1 (Lost to UNC 10-14)
Tempo-Free Profile
This has not changed since a couple weeks ago, but we soldier on.
| Penn State 2011 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Penn State | Opponents | ||
| Faceoff Wins | 139 | Faceoff Wins | 135 |
| Clearing | 197-243 | Clearing | 208-242 |
| Possessions | 416 | Possessions | 423 |
| Goals | 114 | Goals | 112 |
| Offensive Efficiency | .274 | Offensive Efficiency | .265 |
What jumps out? PSU was slow as all get-out last year, fifth-slowest in the country. Hopefully a 74-possession game against North Carolina (also a slow team last year) indicates that they won’t be quite so, well, boring this year.
Aside from speed, the Nittany Lions were an average offense, slightly above-average defense, and just below average in possession percentage. That indicates a defensive scheme predicated on preventing good looks (i.e. zone), implemented to good effect.
Everything they did last year was under a first-year head coach (albeit an excellent one in Jeff Tambroni), so some improvement all around would come as no surprise.
Offense
Penn State was a relatively young team last year, and their top four scorers all return. Senior attacks Matt Mackrides (a Tewaaraton watchlister) and Jack Forster put up 30 and 15 points in 2011, respectively, while Shane Sturgis enters his sophomore year after a freshman campaign that saw him score 18 goals and assist on 16, to lead the team in overall scoring. He was the most balanced of the trio, while the other two were very goal-heavy (Forster had one assist all year).
In the midfield, junior Brother Rice product Nick Dolik is the headliner, along with his classmate Kyle Vanthof. They put up 13 and 15 points last year, with Dolik’s primarily in goals and Vanthof’s more evenly spread. Fantastically-named sophomore Tom Lacrosse (!!) is another key goal scorer.
Another Brother Rice product, faceoff specialist Danny Henneghan, scored six goals and had one assist last season.
Colton Vosburgh is the only key loss from the offense, taking his 12 points – tied for sixth on the team – with him.
Defense
Bill Davis and Matt Bernier started every game defensively for the Nittany Lions last year. Both are out the door, so expecting a regression from the defense is fair. The other starting spot was manned by a combination of freshman Steven Bogert and Ryne Sternberg. Although neither started against Carolina, both will probably draw into the starting lineup in 2012 at some point this season. Senior Ryan McGarvey only played in nine games last year (it seems like he was injured, since he started all nine), and should get the other starting nod. Sophomore Kessler Brown and freshmen Jack Donnelly and J.P. Burnside started the season opener (obviously one of those guys was the LSM, I believe Donnelly).
In the defensive midfield, Matt Brown has graduated, but Ryan Link will be back for his senior season. When the school doesn’t specify on the roster, it’s so tough to determine midfield roles from just the stats, so your guess is as good as mine about who will draw into the starting lineup.
Goalie Austin Kaut was a freshman last year, but he had such good numbers that expecting improvement is unfair (unless a PSU zone defense really inflates his numbers by limiting close-range finishes). He saved .635 of shots faced, and allowed only 7.90 goals per game. Despite that, he only went 7-7, so make of the rest of Penn State’s team what you will. He’s on the Tewaaraton watchlist, so his skills have received national attention already.
Special Teams
I already mentioned Henneghan in the offensive portion of our preview, but his primary role is faceoff specialist. He won a respectable .523 of draws last year, and will be a good test to see if Michigan’s Brian Greiner simply had a bad day against Detroit, or will not be an asset on faceoffs at the college level.
Penn State was below average in both riding and clearing last year, which cost them a number of possessions. They actually finished below .500 in possession percentage, despite a pretty good faceoff unit. The second year of a head coaching tenure – along with plenty of returning starters from the offense – leads me to believe the ride will be a little stronger. It’s possible that the Nittany Lions simply won’t emphasize it, but especially against Michigan, that’s a dumb move. On the clear… a pretty inexperienced defense may struggle at times, though an upgrade in goalkeeper experience is a nice boost.
Penn State committed more penalties that opponents last year, but some of those (especially considering that plenty of them were by offensive players) should be reduced by more experience. Defenseman Bill Davis accounted for 20% of Nittany Lions penalties by his lonesome, so perhaps a cleaner defenseman will replace him.
As for what happens once those penalties are committed, the Penn State man-down was terrible in comparison to their man-up. Opponents converted .288 of their opportunities, while PSU scored only .226 of the time. Losing most of your experienced players on defense is not a recipe for improvement, either.
Big Picture
Jeff Tambroni was a “big splash” hire when Penn State picked him up, and he had a good run of success at Cornell. It’s fair to assume that with a season of experience in State College/university Park under his belt, he should have his team more capable of doing the things he wants them to do.
The depth of experience on offense is impressive, and spells improvement from just average on that side of the ball. The defense loses too much for me to comfortably say they’ll do anything but backslide slightly from last year (North Carolina’s .326 performance in the opener speaks to that – although the offensive star power on Carolina’s team will probably do that to a lot of defenses this spring).
The games will be won or lost, in my estimation, based upon improvement (or lack thereof) in the transition game. Against a very inexperienced team like Michigan, they should see plenty of success. Michigan rode Detroit well, but the same could be said of the Titans against Michigan (when they weren’t foolishly abandoning the ride). Penn State should run up a possession advantage, and do enough on both sides of the ball in this game.
Predictions
As mentioned above, I don’t think Michigan is winning this game. However, ,it is absolutely a good opportunity to test themselves against a high-quality team that is not likely to blow their doors off (unless the battle on faceoffs gets ugly).
When Michigan gets offensive possessions, they should be able to generate looks, but the key will be maintaining those possessions and preventing Penn State from capitalizing on their own opportunities.
- A very experienced offense against very inexperienced (and possibly not fully healthy) goalkeeping is a scary thought. Penn State will score at least a couple goals that don’t seem like they should have gone in.
- Players from Michigan – that includes several of Michigan’s guys, along with Nittany Lions Dolik and Henneghan – will combine for eight goals. Henneghan’s performance on the faceoffs will also be impressive.
- Michigan’s offense will look much better against Penn State than it did against Detroit. A lower-pressure scheme will be easier on their lack of experience with Division-1 stick skills, and the turnover numbers will drop.
Nobody – including me – is expecting Michigan to have a chance to win this game at the end of the day. I do, however, think that Penn State, with their slow pace and unproven (though experienced) offense and inexperienced (though proven) defense is a game that they’ll be able to keep close. Penn State earns the 15-11 victory.
After rewatching the UM/UDM game and catching part of the UNC/PSU game I’m worried for Michigan. This could be a really bad blowout.
I think Penn State plays a style that isn’t particularly conducive to blowing people out, to be honest. They make the most of the possessions they get, and prevent the opponent from doing the same. They aren’t out there to run up some goals.
That, combined with the fact that their defense doesn’t seem to be very good (of course, with the disclaimer that the only game they’ve played so far was against UNC’s high-powered offense) leads me to believe that it will be a comfortable win for Penn State, but not one that looks ugly on the scoreboard.
Any chance we’ll be able to watch any games other than OSU this year? I can’t believe tomorrow’s game isn’t at least streamed online by the BTN.
The Big Ten’s (lack of) coverage is disappointing, and frankly, embarrassing. Given the number of awful studio shows they run (when the only reason people want to watch the channel is live or replayed sports), they should be able to carve out a spot for some lacrosse. The fact that the Michigan-Penn State game is not on due to a replay (I believe) of a women’s hockey game is just… I often wonder what they hell they’re thinking in Chicago.
As for other games on some sort of TV, a couple away games might be streamed on schools’ websites, both games in Jacksonville will stream on Laxx.tv (for a fee), and the Big Ten Network or ESPN3 might pick up a game or two down the road.
Final score 15-11? I am sorry but that will be nearly impossible. Michigan will be lucky to get 5. Expect to see a nice “stat” day for Nick Dolik as well. 18-3 final?
11 was probably on the high side, but I’m of the impression that Penn State’s defense isn’t particularly good. If Michigan can get into settled possessions, they’ll have opportunities to make plays.
I was thinking 18-4. Penn state played UNC close and should be comparable to the towson scrimmage (15-2?) that michigan played this fall. I am hoping that Michigan can slow the game and keep it respectable until the half. This should be a good barometer for how far they have to go and how the rest of the year may go.
They may not be looking to run up goals, but I think the huge competitive dropoff from UNC will make them a little trigger happy. With their defense I dont think they are concerned about losing a shootout to michigan (which they may be against the top/mid teams).
16-9. That is a heck of a lot closer to 15-11 than what I predicted.
I am definitely pleasantly surprised by this and the UDM outcomes.
I agree. I think we have to constantly remind ourselves what UM is dealing with here. They have a club roster playing a D1 season. They were down 4-2 to the #17 team in the country on the road and ended up losing by a closer score than a lot of people (myself included) probably anticipated. For the second straight game they scored first, which shows they probably aren’t going into these games intimidated. On the downside, that’s twice now that they have fallen apart in the third quarter. I wonder if that’s just them eventually caving to superior talent or if it’s their opponent adjusting to things they are doing. With UM’s lack of great D1 talent, they probably can’t make a lot of adjustments themselves. They have to play a slow-down style to have a chance. They can’t switch a lot of things up mid-game.
UDM’s game went about how I expected. They are good enough to score on anyone. They just don’t have the horses to stay with a team like UNC. They will beat Mercer next week, and then we’ll see about Georgetown and Quinnipiac. As always, what matters is the MAAC. Playing a tough early season schedule should help prepare them for that. I still see a very good shot at the first NCAA tournament appearance for the Titans.
Andy, we also have to constantly remind ourselves that Michigan is not an ordinary school and its club program was not an ordinary club team.
I agree with that. But based purely on talent, this team should go 0-14 or maybe 1-13 this year. Michigan not being an ordinary school is what’s going to pay off in recruiting. Michigan not being an ordinary club team means they are more talented than many other club teams, but it doesn’t necessarily mean they can compete in D1 with this roster. We’ll see.
Yep. We shouldn’t judge their current talent as a basis for what their future recruits will do.
However, we can judge what JP does with subpar talent, as far as staying competitive against teams they should lose to, hopefully winning a few, and showing improvement through the year.
I’m amazed that Michigan hung with penn state. It’s incredible, they are no ordinary club team. John Paul seems to have them workin very hard for a win with such little talent. Impressive indeed.
Detroit needs to win some of these upcoming games.
16-9 looks competitive, but Penn State showed some class by emptying the bench late in the 3rd quarter after they got up by 10. Also I am not sure Penn State should be in the top 25 the new coach has not gotten enough of his recruits to make an impact. I would not want to be playing Denver this coming weekend after that let down against Ohio State. They have some guys from up north that can light it up.
I would argue that a 4-2 first half not only looks competitive, but it is competitive. That’s a big deal for a vastly undermanned Michigan team. The stats also seem to indicate that Penn State started subbing in the 4th. Kaut was still playing in the first five minutes of the 4th.
Michigan won the 4th. You can also make a very strong case that Penn State’s subs should be better than Michigan’s starters. They were all D1 recruits. Michigan’s players were not.
Just like against Detroit, Michigan fell apart in the 3rd. If this was a competitive roster, we’d all be saying this is something they have to fix. Since it’s not really a competitive roster, I’m choosing to look at the bright side. They hung with a top-20 team on the road for a half and didn’t quit.
A 4-2 half looks nice on the scoreboard, but the rest of the stats tell the story that PSU was dominating the game, and Michigan was actually lucky to stay within striking distance, I think.
At the end of the day, sure, the score is what matters, but going forward, I think PSU’s dominance in all other categories at the half tells the story of where this Michigan team is.
I spoke w/ a PSU player that said practice the next day sucked. They played like crap and Tambroni let them know how poorly they played. I think Michigan is finding some fools gold success since there is not much film out there on them with this team and these coaches. It’s not a coincidence that they have been much worse in the 2nd half of both games as coaches are making halftime adjustments.
I’m not sure how much film study is an excuse. With Michigan’s personnel, frankly, that shouldn’t matter for a team with the talent and coaching of Penn State.
Maybe teams overlook Michigan because they’re a brand new program, and settle in after halftime. On the other end of the spectrum, maybe they’re intimidated by the reputation and winged helmets until they realize after a half of play that these guys just aren’t very good.
No matter what it is, I doubt it’s a lack of available film to scout (and the fact that the players bore the brunt of Tambroni’s frustration seems to support that).
I called Tambroni to get the real story as to what happened to his team against Michigan. He was really upset as they overestimated what Michigan could do and totally agreed that his team’s performance sucked against Michigan.
Can you ask him to come do a coaching clinic in Michigan soon? I would love to sit through anything he would have to say.
Apparently one thing he would say is he had trouble getting his team ready for Michigan. : )
I heard Tierney was overestimating Michigan as well and that’s why they got caught looking past Ohio State last weekend. 🙂