Michigan Preview: Loyola

Michigan has headed down to Florida after a rough outing in the Centennial State. They’ll see if the sunshine will treat them a little nicer than the Rocky Mountaina.

Loyola (MD)

Fear the Greyhound!

7:00 p.m. March 7, 2012
Oosterbaan Fieldhouse, Ann Arbor
Gametracker stats. @UMichLacrosse twitter. GLS Twitter.

2011
8-5 (4-2 ECAC). #22 LaxPower.
Lost to Fairfield in ECAC semifinals.

2012
3-0 (Beat Delaware, Towson, and Bellarmine)

Tempo-Free Profile

Three games under the Greyhounds’ collective belt, so a quick look at last year’s stats first.

Last year, Loyola won games by dominating possession, rather than being better than the opposition in efficiency terms. Some of that can be chalked up to strength of schedule – they played the toughest slate in the ECAC, despite not making the NCAA Tournament (where Denver played their two toughest opponents of the year) – but some is a stylistic matter. If you can win without pouring in goals every time you get the ball, sometimes it’s best to take it easy.

On to this year’s numbers to date:

Once again, Loyola is dominating possession, thanks to a great performance on faceoffs and a nice performance in the ride/clear game.

The improvements have come in terms of their efficiency, both offensively and defensively. The offensive number is more notable early this season, because it’s a bigger leap, and has taken the offense from bad (the Greyhounds were in the bottom quarter last year, schedule-adjusted) to great (it’s a top ten-ish number right now). The defense has gone from slightly above-average to quite good. This isn’t a strength-of-schedule mirage either: Delaware and Towson should be strong teams this year.

Offense

Plenty of talent departed from Loyola’s roster. Attack Matt Langan, midfielder Chris Basler, and midfielder Chris Palmer were Nos. 2-4 on the scoring leaders for Loyola. Those guys are out the door, and the offense has not only not missed a beat, but improved significantly.

Attack Eric Lusby, who played in only two games last year after tearing his ACL the previous spring, is the team’s leader as a fifth-year senior, already with 10 goals and two assists through just three games. Junior attack Mike Sawyer was the team’s leading scorer last year (and was a preseason all-ECAC selection), but has taken on more of a complementary role early this season with Lusby’s emergence, picking up seven goals and two assists. The third attackman is sophomore Justin Ward, who is the quarterback with nine points so far, every one of them an assist.

Junior midfielder Sean O’Sullivan is the team’s most-balanced scorer so far this year, with four goals and four assists in the early going. His fellow offensive middies, junior Davis Butts and senior Pat Byrnes, are both big (6-1+) shooters, who have five and four goals, respectively, with not an assist among them.

This is an offense that, to date, has very clearly defined roles. Ward is a feeder, O’Sullivan is a combo guy, and the rest of them are primarily finishers and/or shooters. Senior midfielder J.P. Dalton and freshman attack Nikko Pontrello have played smaller roles so far for Loyola this season. Lusby and Dalton are team captains.

Against Michigan’s “slide early, and slide often” defense, a team that assists on the majority of its goals could be trouble. However, with roles that seem more concrete, and less of a free-flowing style, identifying who the passing threats and scoring threats are can cut down on some of the easy doorstep finishes.

Defense

The defense is led by senior longpole Dylan Grimm and junior LSM Scott Ratliff, both team captains. Grimm has started all three games, causing to turnovers and picking up nine GBs. Ratliff has caused five turnovers and picked up 16 GBs, and already contributed a goal and an assist on the year.

Junior Reid Acton and sophomore Joe Fletcher have been the other starters for Loyola early in the year. Like Grimm, they haven’t put up big numbers (five combined turnovers and eight combined GBs). Josh Hawkins at SSDM and Ratliff at LSM were pre-season all-ECAC selections.

The Loyola defense seems to be the opposite of Detroit’s aggressive, takeaway style, and Michigan could have some difficulty finding openings. We’ve seen them force unwise passes to the crease plenty in the early going this year, and playing a patient game is going to be paramount against a solid defense.

In net, junior Michael Bonitatibus has received the majority of playing time. He’s saved only .429 of shots faced – playing behind a good defense – and allowed 6.67 goals per outing. He could be a weak link if Michigan can crack the 6v6 defense of the Greyhounds and get some open shots.

Special Teams

As noted above, Loyola has had plenty of success on faceoffs this year. Dalton has been the primary reason for that, picking up where John Schiavone left off last year. He’s won 42 of 66 draws so far this season. Oddly enough, Michigan’s Brian Greiner has been excellent against good faceoff specialists and poor against middling-to-bad ones, so this might not be as big a problem for the Wolverines as it seems.

In the transition game, Loyola has not stood out – positively or negatively – so far this year on the clear or the ride. They’re clearing better than their opponents, which is expected out of a team that’s reached 3-0 in part by owning the possession game. Michigan’s Oosterbaan Fieldhouse is smaller than a regulation field, so the riding game for both teams could be a factor. Michigan is used to it (thanks to several years at the club level with a dominating ride), and could outperform expectations slightly.

Penalties haven’t played a big role in Loyola’s season yet, with roughly equal man-up opportunities – and conversion rates – for and against.

Big Picture

After picking up the team’s first win – and coming close to a weekend sweep – in Jacksonville, the Wolverines are likely riding a wave of confidence. Unfortunately, Loyola might be the best team they’ve seen yet this year.

The Greyhounds are solid or better in every phase of the game so far this season, and both ECAC foes that Michigan has faced (Denver and Air Force) were willing to kindly demonstrate to the Wolverines the difference between their league and, say, Mercer.

This is a very tough matchup for Michigan. The home opener factor (and the advantage of Oosterbaan Fieldhouse) may come into play and give the Wolverines a boost, but Loyola is a very tough out, especially for a young program.

Official site game notes and preview. Loyola version of same.

Predictions

I got burned predicting a Michigan win against Air Force – the team promptly went out and built a nice lead before getting run off the field in the final three quarters – so I don’t think I’m comfortable doing the same against a team that was at about the same level last year.

• The third quarter has been kind to Loyola this year (outscoring opponents 14-5). It has been unkind to Michigan (outscored 11-27). The Wolverines will struggle during that period, and it will ultimately doom them.
• Emil Weiss will give Michigan a chance to stay in the game until the third-quarter run allows the Greyhounds to pull away. He was an upgrade over Dylan Westerhold this weekend, and is a serious glimmer of hope for the team going forward.
• Greiner will not shut down a talented faceoff man, as he has in some games in recent weeks. J.P. Dalton (Roadhouse joke goes here) will win more than 50% of faceoffs. Holding him below 60% is the goal.

Michigan will show enough in this game to demonstrate that they will probably have a chance to steal on later in the year. They won’t play well enough to win this one, though. Holding down the second and third quarter surge by Loyola (Michigan is actually outscoring opponents in the first this year, and deadlocked in the fourth) will be the key to staying within striking distance. Loyola wins this one 14-6.