Michigan Preview: Jacksonville

Michigan has headed down to Florida after a rough outing in the Centennial State. They’ll see if the sunshine will treat them a little nicer than the Rocky Mountaina.

Jacksonville

Fear Flipper!

3:30 p.m. EST March 2, 2012
Jacksonville, Fla.
FREE video stream on Laxx.tv. There doesn’t appear to be a live stat tracker.

2011
5-10 (3-3 MAAC). #51 LaxPower.
Lost to Siena in MAAC semifinals.

2012
1-2 (Beat Navy, lost to Towson and Duke)

Tempo-Free Profile

Jacksonville has played only three games, so we’ll look at last year’s numbers alongside this year’s to date.

The Dolphins (LeMoyne wants their mascot back, btw) were a slightly below-average offense last year, and a bad defense. In the possession game, they were a very bad faceoff team, an average clearing team, and an excellent riding team. How do they look so far this year?

That’s only three games, so obviously take the sample size with a grain of salt. However, Jacksonville has an entirely new coaching staff, so this year’s numbers are the relevant ones, despite not knowing how they’ll shape out over the year.

That offensive number is pretty good (it would have been among last year’s top ten), but the defense is awful (it would have been fourth-worst last year). The faceoffs haven’t gotten any better, and the ride – again, with only 51 attempts, this is an area in which sample size and competition play a huge role – has gone from excellent to awful.

Offense

Miniature midfielder (5-8, 165) Cameron Mann led the team in scoring last year, with a nearly even split between goals and assists to reach 37 points. Attackman TJ Kenary led the team in goals last year with 21 points – adding seven assists – and he’s carried the mantle so far through three games as well, with eight points on seven goals and an assist.

Attackman Max Gurowski was the team’s third-leading scorer last year and also returns, along with the fourth-leading scorer, Owen Green. Gurowski was the only guy on last year’s squad whose assist numbers blow away his goal-scoring: he’s a quarterback for this team.

60-1, 200-pound midfielder Donovan Lange was a role-player for the team last year, but he’s taken more than twice as many shots this season as any other Dolphin, albeit only to put in three goals.

Among the losses, Bobby Stockton was the team’s second-leading goal-scorer (though he didn’t contribute many assists) and Robert Moore had 19 points (again, mostly on goals). Not many losses, with those two the only losses among last year’s double-digit point earners.

Defense

The defense was bad last year, and through three games this year, it looks a lot worse.

Jake Ziegler started every game on defense for JU last year, and returns for his senior season. Junior Tanner Gard is also a returning starter, but freshman Charlie Archer has drawn into the starting lineup alongside those two in two of the Wolverines’ first three games, after senior Ben Schaefer started the first but has not started in the most recent two.

Junior Stephen Spindler has not played yet this season after leading the team in caused turnovers in limited action last year. Chip Young is the leader in the defensive midfield, but simply from looking at stats, the Dolphins have rotated enough guys through there to know who to look for.

Sophomore Peter DeLuca has played every minute between the pipes so far, after starting each game last season. He saved .508 of shots faced and allowed 6.81 goals per game last season. So far this year, he’s saved .551 of shots faced, but is allowing 11.67 goals per game this year: the defense in front of him is much worse than it was last year, and with mostly the same players, that’s a coaching (and possibly strength of schedule) matter.

Special Teams

The Dolphins were not good on faceoffs last year, although Will Vogt won .517 of his draws on the season (two other JU players, both of whom were terrible and one of whom is no longer on the roster, also took draws). This year, Vogt is just over .500, but Dan McNulty – one of last year’s goats on faceoffs – has taken some of the draws and won very few of them. The Jacksonville staff seems determined to give McNulty a shot in each game, even though he’s been bad – and in fact, much much worse than Vogt – each time out.

The Jacksonville clear is good, but the ride has been really bad so far. That’s likely on account of a de-emphasis by the new staff. With Michigan’s trouble clearing at times, it would behoove the Dolphins to exert a little pressure there, but that may not be within their philosophy. Michigan’s coaching staff has installed enough distinct clears to have success against anything, the execution has been the struggle.

Penalties have been even through three games for the Dolphins so far this year, and JU is has converted on a five of their 11 chances. Given how terrible their defense is in general, it’s notable that they’ve only allowed one goal in 11 opportunities for the opposition. Maybe they should just always play with five guys in defense.

Big Picture

Jacksonville looks like a much worse team than last year, admittedly with little evidence to go on so far. However, they were good enough to win five games last season – something Michigan sure as hell isn’t going to do this year. The question is whether Michigan can take advantage.

The Wolverines couldn’t take advantage of subpar defenses against Denver and Air Force, so they’re going to have to tighten up their play against Jacksonville, and stop turning the ball over.

In all, every game against a bad opponent this year is going to be a huge game for Michigan – at least until that first win, at which time they simply become “very big” games.

Official site mini-preview of Jacksonville, and full game notes.

Predictions

I got burned predicting a Michigan win against Air Force – the team promptly went out and built a nice lead before getting run off the field in the final three quarters – so I don’t think I’m comfortable doing the same against a team that was at about the same level last year.

• The offense will break through. It simply has to. Jacksonville’s defense is god-awful. At some point, Michigan is going to not play a sloppy game. Against a team that has only caused 15 turnovers through three games is a great opportunity. It’s double-digit scoring time.
• Dylan Westerhold will continue improving in stopping the ball – although his defense is going to continue giving up easy looks, simply on account of personnel deficiencies – but will again struggle in the clearing game. John Paul called him a “work in progress” in Colorado, and that progress will continue.
• Brian Greiner will continue to impress on faceoffs. He’s done well through four games without the numbers to show for it. Trevor Yealy should again play on the wing, and help out the ground ball deficiency quite a bit.
• Michigan will employ some aggressive rides, and hold Jacksonville well below their .907 success rate so far this season on the clear.

Like against Air Force, Michigan will have moments of solid play, and a lot of times where the Wolverines gets frustrated and make dumb mistakes. The key is to limit those mistakes, and prevent them from spiraling and piling up. This game will be Michigan’s closest yet on the season, but the Dolphins win 15-13.