Michigan Preview: Harvard

Michigan ends its run of four winnable games in five outings with just one win to show for it, and the sledding isn’t going to be any easier in the final month of the season. Up next: The Michigan of the East (that would be funnier if they weren’t about to smoke The Michigan of Michigan).

Harvard

Their mascot is a color. This is simultaneously difficult to mock and self-mocking.

1:00 p.m. March 31, 2012
Cambridge, Mass.
Live stats. Live video ($), Live audio (appears to be free). @UMichLacrosse twitter.

2012
4-4 (2-0 Ivy). #20 LaxPower.

Tempo-Free Profile

Harvard hasn’t been a power in the Ivy League in recent years, but even the worst opponent in that conference is probably out of the realm of realistic victory for this Michigan squad. Onto the stats. Harvard uses a pathetic stat presentation program, so you can thank me in the comments for doing all the work.

Thanks mostly to the excellent Keegan Michel, Harvard is doing very well on faceoffs. They are also an excellent clearing team, which has helped them value those possessions. They are not a particularly good riding team, however. That has allowed opponents to stay right with them in terms of total possessions.

In terms of efficiency, the Crimson is putting on a show when they get the ball. They aren’t the best offensive team in America, but they probably aren’t far from it. Unfortunately, their defense is almost as bad as their offense is good, which kinda cancels the whole thing out (but makes for exciting games!).

Despite good offense and bad defense, the Crimson aren’t playing in many high-scoring games. That’s mostly on account of a medium-slow pace of play, with just under 65 combined possessions per game.

Offense

The Crimson have three players with over 20 points through the season’s first eight games, then a gaping hole to scorer No. 4, who has only nine on the year. The top scorer is senior attackman Jeff Cohen, who gets most of his production on goals, scoring 29 so far this season while adding only three assists: he’s a finisher, folks.

The next two scorers are more balanced, though sophomore attack Daniel Eipp shows a slight bias toward scoring goals, and senior midfielder Kevin Vaughan toward assisting. Eipp has 29 total points on the year, and Vaughan has 23. Vaughan is a Tewaaraton watchlist member.

The final member of the starting attack has rotated between freshman Will Walker and sophomore Carl Zimmerman. The two are tied with nine goals on the year. The next two top scorers are midfielders – led by faceoff specialist Keegan Michel. This is an attack-heavy offense that relies overwhelmingly on the top three guys of its production.

Defense

Junior Jeff Gonos is the only longpole who has started all eight games for the Crimson, while freshman Stephen Jahelka and senior Paul Pate have been his most-frequent line. Gonos and Jahelka are tied for the team lead with seven caused turnovers.

Daniel DiMaria and Joe Petrucci are near the top of the list with five caused turnovers as well, and I imagine one of the five players already mentioned sees significant time at LSM. Although DiMaria is listed at the position, he’s played only two games so far this fall (making the Tewaaraton watchlist member’s caused turnover mark even more impressive), so somebody else has to have stepped up.

Midfielders Eric Slingerland and John Rose are both near the tops of the GB chart and nowhere near the top in terms of shots taken, so my guess is that they’re your primary short stick defensive middies.

In goal, four different players have seen time, though only two of them – junior Harry Krieger and freshman Jake Gambitsky – have started and played significantly. Krieger’s numbers are far more impressive (.559 s% and 7.65 GAA, compared to Gambitsky’s .444 and 11.20), but he hasn’t played in recent weeks. That’s presumably due to injury, but he saw 32 seconds in the Crimson’s blowout loss to UMass, so he could be ready to return.

Special Teams

As mentioned twice now, Keegan Michel is the primary faceoff specialist, and a good one. The freshman has won .610 of his draws, collecting a team-leading 36 GBs in the process. He’ll also stay on and play a little bit of offense with a clean win, having taken 10 shots (and scoring on two of them) and making four assists this season.

As mentioned above, Harvard’s clear is quite good. It should be interesting to see whether Michigan tries to test that with creative rides – including the 10-man – or simply concedes and gets back into 6v6 defense. Given the weakness in their D, I say you might as well take a risk or two.

Crimson opponents are clearing very well this year. Unfortunately for Michigan, the vast majority of their problems clearing have been unforced, so their success rate might not indicate anything about the Harvard ride. Expect something in the low 70%, even though teams have been regularly clearing 85% against Harvard.

The Harvard man-up is pretty good – nearly 40%, so expect them to score relatively easily in the inevitable event of an EMO.

Big Picture

Michigan’s opportunities to get wins this season are mostly behind them, and even if they shock an opponent, it probably won’t be this one (please be Ohio State please please please). Anything is possible on any given day, but Michigan’s level of precision is trending downward at the moment.

Fortunately, Harvard got blown out by UMass their last time on the field, so they might not be playing with the utmost confidence themselves. Of course, the 8-16 loss may just serve to make them angry, and Michigan would be the team they take it out on.

At this point in the season, Michigan has nothing to lose by going all-out every game. You take a few risks that lead to the opponent scoring? At least you went down swinging, when you were probably going down either way. After two lackluster efforts (and I mean that literally – this team might not win a lot, but they have to put in the effort) in their last two outings, playing with a bit of heart and intensity would be a refreshing change.

Michigan preview materials. Harvard preview materials.

Predictions

Harvard is a good team, despite the recent setback. Michigan is a poor team who showed signs of improvement, and has seemed to regress in the past couple weeks. This looks, for the most part, like a battle between irresistible force a easily-movable object.

• Michel should see lots of success on faceoffs. Not only is he likely to win plenty of them on his own, but Michigan’s wing play hasn’t been the best on faceoffs during large stretches of the season, either. Even when the draw turns into a 50/50 ground ball, that’s more like a 60/40 ground ball in favor of the opposition.
• Harvard’s big three will have a good day offensively. The Crimson’s high schoring output this season is 15, and they’ll challenge that range, with plenty of production from the top three guys on the roster.
• Michigan will give up a few penalties – and Harvard will capitalize on the opportunities. I’m thinking a 5/6 day on the EMO is in store for the Crimson.
• The Wolverines will come out ready to play – thankfully, Michigan’s loss won’t be due to a lack of energy or urgency. They’ll look more like a team that’s doing what they can with the hand they’re dealt, rather than one that’s accepted defeat.

It will be a tough day for Michigan, just as every weekend until the end of the season is likely to be. However, a surprising burst of offense (led by, yes, a run to open the game) will make the score a little closer than you might think. Harvard gets the 14-7 win.