Michigan Preview: Denver

Let’s take a quick look at Michigan’s first of two weekend opponents…

Denver

1:30 p.m. MST Feb. 25, 2012
Denver, Colo.
Gametracker stats

2011
15-3 (6-0 ECAC). #7 LaxPower.
Won ECAC Championship, lost to Virginia in the NCAA Final Four (8-14)

2012
0-1 (Lost to Ohio State 9-10)

Tempo-Free Profile

This should be the last week that we have to go with old numbers, but with only one game under their belt, the Pioneers aren’t quite there.

Denver 2011
Denver		Opponents
Faceoff Wins	251	Faceoff Wins	195
Clearing	270-314	Clearing	277-332
Possessions	620	Possessions	571
Goals	224	Goals	156
Offensive Efficiency	.361	Offensive Efficiency	.273

The obvious thing that jumps out is the offense. It was the nation’s best last year, just ahead of Kevin Crowley-led Stony Brook. The defense was right in the middle of the pack. Faceoffs and clearing were good, the ride was just below average. Altogether, that gave them the No. 16 possession percentage in the country, earning 52.1% of all possessions over the season.

Offense

This was outstanding last year. For a team with Michigan’s defensive deficiencies, the only way they’ll keep Denver from scoring is by preventing them from getting the ball, or forcing them to slow down their rate of attack. Will we see plenty of zone defense? The Pioneers are a Canadian-led team, so they aren’t known for big guns as much as stick skills. A heavy dose of zone seems wise.

As for personnel, Mark Matthews was the team’s top scorer last year, and the senior attack will likely carry the torch again in 2012 as a Tewaaraton watchlist member. He had 46 goals and 24 assist on the year. Fellow senior Alex Demopoulos was the team’s second-leading scorer with 30 goals and 28 assists. The fourth- and fifth-leading scorers last year were midfielders Cameron Flint and Jeremy Noble, both of whom are back. Flint and midfielder Chase Carraro join Matthews on the preseason All-ECAC team (Carraro actually makes it twice, again as a faceoff specialist, about which more in a moment).

The only loss among the top seven scorers is Todd Baxter, who had 31 and 18 last year.

Defense

The defense for Denver wasn’t nearly as good as the offense last year, and that’s reflected in the All-ECAC preseason team, which includes zero defensive field players. Longpole Steve Simonetti started nearly every game, and is gone. Brendan DeBlois started nearly every single game, and is gone. Jeff Brown started nearly every single game, and is gone. That’s rough.

Drew Babb, Carson Cannon, and Kyle Hercher started on close defense against Ohio State. Considering the Buckeyes hit a .345 efficiency mark (they only hit .250 against Detroit), this Denver defense is not so great. The question is whether Michigan can capitalize, of course.

Jamie Faus was a freshman starter between the pipes last year, and you can bet he’ll get the nod again in 2012. He went the distance against Ohio State last week, but made only four saves while allowing ten goals. Sample size says a lot, but that’s a far cry from his .557 save percentage last year, when he allowed 8.55 goals per game.

Special Teams

As mentioned above, Cararro is the All-ECAC faceoff specialist honoree in the preseason. He only won 10 of 22 draws against Detroit (the theme that seems to be emerging here is that Ohio State might actually be really good, by the way), but should rebound against Michigan.

The Pioneers were a good clearing team and a poor-to-mediocre riding team last year, successfully clearing .860 of their attempts, but allowing opponents .834 success on their own clears. Nothing happened in their first game to make me think anything is different. Michigan’s tactics – especially at altitude, where an aggressive ride can backfire against a team without great depth – should be very interesting in this one.

Denver took more penalties than they committed last year, and also converted at a better clip. The diminished talent and experience on defense could change that slightly, but I don’t think it’ll play a huge role against Michigan.

Big Picture

Denver’s offense should be absolutely lethal. Against Michigan’s subpar D, that equals a high-scoring day. Expect fireworks in the settled offense for the Pioneers.

On the other side of the ball, Michigan might be able to gain a bit of confidence by finding they’re actually able to score against a team that was in the preseason top-10. Of course, that’s a paper tiger given the losses on Denver’s D, but anywhere they can find confidence is welcome.

Michigan’s gameplan should be to slow down the game. Denver can score at will when they have the ball, so minimizing their possessions is the way to go. That’s not going to happen by way of dominating on faceoffs for Michigan (barring a miracle), so reducing the overall number is going to help.

Predictions

Michigan has already had a couple moments that open their eyes and show them that the Division-1 level isn’t going to be easy to dominate (and they obviously came into the season with that mindset, as well). They should be used to it by this point, and ready to play calmly and worry about process, moreso than results.

• Michigan is dominated in possession, but only on account of a deficit in faceoffs. They hold their own in the ride/clear game, although a lack of depth starts to show in that phase during the third quarter.
• The first hat trick in Michigan varsity lacrosse history is recorded. The Denver defense hasn’t shown itself to be anything special, and Michigan should be able to capitalize on a fair number of possessions.
• Unfortunately, multiple Pioneers come away with hat tricks. That Denver offense is just too lethal to be even slowed down against a porous Michigan defense. If DU goes on a run of faceoff victories, it could get ugly.

I don’t want to say Michigan may as well mail this game in, but… it doesn’t look winnable. There are three phases of the game: offense, defense, and special teams. Those overlap for transition, man-up, etc., but the Wolverines are staring down serious disadvantages in two of them. Denver gets the 19-10 win after a couple late Michigan goals salvage some respectability.