Michigan Preview: Delaware

This preview is going to be way easier to write, since I’ve already looked at the Blue Hens once. Unfortunately, ease of preview is not correlated with ease of victory, and this should be a tough one for Michigan.

Delaware

The Blue Hen works exclusively chest and arms in the gym.

1:00 p.m. April 7, 2012
Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor
Live stats (caution: prone to not working at all). Video ($). @UMichLacrosse twitter.

2012
3-7 (0-3 CAA). #27 LaxPower. #31 Tempo-free.

Tempo-Free Profile

Now that the Tempo-Free Lax database is all up to date, and (as far as we know – hit me with an e-mail if you find a problem) fully-functional, we can go into a bit more depth.

Delaware is good on faceoffs – just outside the top ten at No. 11 – and middle of the pack on the ride. What prevents them from dominating time of possession (a metric in which they’re still 13th nationally) is a terrible clear. The Blue Hens make it into the offensive box only 77% of the time.

Their offense and defense aren’t that far from each other, given the schedule they’ve played (a tough one). In fact, adjusted for schedule strength, both come in at exactly 34th in the nation.

Overall, the Blue Hens are slightly better than average (thanks in part to their ability on faceoffs), but their tough schedule makes the record look ugly.

Offense

When last I previewed the Blue Hens, I pointed out that two key players returned from last year’s squad. Senior attackman Grant Kaleikau has more than lived up to my expectation, with as many points as Delaware’s 2-4 scorers combined, and nearly half of the team’s total assists. The other player, Eric Smith, hasn’t played a second of lacrosse this year thanks to a back injury.

Smith’s absence has been filled by… well, no one. After Kaleikau’s 38 points, the next-leading scorer is sophomore attack Danny Keane, with 15 (mostly goals). Mark Yetter and Sean Finegan have been the primary players at the third attack option.

In the midfield, senior Andrew Tenneberger and sophomore Brenden Gilson are the main scorers, but both have only 10 points apiece.

Defense

Senior midfielder Dom Sebastiani was a pre-season all-conference selection as a defensive specialist, but thanks to the general mediocrity of the Blue Hen offense, he’s actually not too far off from the leading scorers with his nine total points. That doesn’t mean he’s slacking in defensive production, leading the team (by a mile) in caused turnovers.

Connor Fitzgerald and Tim Langmaid are the key close defenders. They have both started every game they’ve played (Fitzgerlad missed one contest) and are tied with 17 ground balls apiece. Sophomore Jarred Bowe has started most games, as well.

In goal, Chris Herbert has been the guy. That doesn’t necessarily mean the redshirt freshman has been particularly good. He’s saved less than half of shots faced, and is allowing 10.31 goals per game. Keep in mind the tough schedule that Delaware has faced, though, and it doesn’t seem quite so bad.

Special Teams

Senior Dan Cooney takes the vast majority of Delaware’s faceoffs. He’s pretty darn good as well, winning .583 of his draws. You may recall that he turned large swaths of the Detroit game into a make-it-take-it situation for the Blue Hens, reducing that one to a blowout.

As mentioned above, Delaware is not good in the ride/clear game. They have one of the worst clears in the nation, so Michigan’s ride (actually the best in the nation) could see some success. However, the Wolverines’ success has been, in part, due to unconventional tactics, including heavy use of a 10-man, so it could be a hit-or-miss proposition in terms of applying to this game.

Delaware and their opponents both commit about the same number of penalties – around 3.5 per game – but the Blue Hens are doing a poor job preventing the opposition from scoring on their chances. Michigan plays a pretty clean game, so they could benefit from some extra-man opportunities.

Big Picture

It’s unfair to Michigan to say they’re playing with house money. When you’re 1-9, there is no such thing as house money. However, expectations for the rest of the season are low – and justifiably so, based on the results to date. Because of that, I expect the Wolverines to play some of their final few opponents closer than you’d expect, as the pressure is reduced.

From this point on, the results on the field are important as much for building a sense of momentum toward next year as they are for their own intrinsic value.

Michigan preview.

Predictions

I’ll keep this short:

• Cooney wins 70% of his faceoffs – or better.
• Michigan rides Delaware into a pretty poor performance on their clears, but also gives up a cheap goal or two in transition thanks to their riding tactics.
• Trevor Yealy extends his program-record scoring streak, notching at least one goal.
• Like usual, Michigan strikes first but allows the opponent to build up a lead. They’ll mount a comeback, but not make it all the way back.

Michigan shows some positive signs that they aren’t just a punching bag this season. There will be enough signs of life to give hope that they could win one of these last few games. However, Delaware wins, 16-10.