A rough outing this afternoon, but the weekend can still be salvaged.
Denver
Is the bird part of the lightning or being struck by it?
11:00 a.m. MST Feb. 26, 2012
Denver, Colo.
Gametracker stats
2011
6-7 (3-3 ECAC). #42 LaxPower.
Did not make ECAC Championships.
2012
0-2 (Lost to Rutgers and Robert Morris)
Tempo-Free Profile
This is the final preview (fingers crossed) using last year’s numbers.
| Air Force 2011 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Air Force | Opponents | ||
| Faceoff Wins | 138 | Faceoff Wins | 138 |
| Clearing | 216-255 | Clearing | 216-266 |
| Possessions | 443 | Possessions | 443 |
| Goals | 117 | Goals | 112 |
| Offensive Efficiency | .264 | Offensive Efficiency | .252 |
The differences in offensive and defensive efficiency – with the exact same number of possessions – show that a couple goals can make a big difference. Obviously that means there’s plenty of noise.
The Falcons were mediocre in just about everything. The only thing that stands out is poor offensive efficiency.
Offense
The Falcons’ No. 1, 4, 5, and 8 leading scorers from last season are gone among double-digit point-earners.
The leading returning scorer is sophomore midfielder Erik Smith, who had 13 goals and 16 assists last season. Attack Mike Crampton wasn’t far behind with 16 and 8. Holt product Tommy McKee, a 5-9 sophomore attack, had 25 points last year, almost all on finishes.
As mentioned above, the Air Force offense wasn’t particularly good last year anyway, so their losses should mean trouble. Then again, they’re at .343 efficiency through two games this year, so who knows. Admittedly, those teams (Rutgers and Robert Morris) weren’t great last year, but do we have any reason to believe Michigan is much better?
Defense
Two of last year’s regular starters in the defensive corps return in the forms of Dayton Gilbreath and Matt Puleo. The third regular starter, the spectacularly-named Benson Oldmixon, is gone, and freshman Davis Gunter (replacing one all-namer with another, I see) has started both game sin his stead.
Brian Wilson started every game between the pipes last year, and now that he’s gone, Austin Fox (who was also his backup last season) is the starter. He’s saving .429 of shots faced and allowing 14 goals a game through two contests this year.
The defense has been bad this year, allowing .337 goals per possession. That’s a step down from last year’s decent .263 mark, so the downgrade in goaltending (or random chance, or strength of schedule, or…) could be a factor.
Special Teams
Erik Smith was the prime faceoff guy last year, and he’s reprising the role in 2012. He won .525 of his draws in 2011, but is under .500 so far this year. Michigan’s Brian Greiner is playing well, but is going to need better wing play than he got today if he’s going to build up any sort of gaudy statistics.
Air Force was slightly above average on both the ride and the clear last year, and with only a bit of personnel turnover (and facing a turnover-prone goalie) that should hold true in this contest as well. Michigan worked a few things on the clear that had great success, and more discipline going forward should see them round into form.
Shocker of the century: a service academy didn’t commit many penalties last year, earning the distinction of “disciplined.” Confirmed stereotypes aside, Air Force was bad at converting on man-up opportunities, and middle-of the pack in preventing opponents from doing the same.
Big Picture
It goes without saying that the weaker opponents on Michigan’s schedule are going to provide the only options for wins in the inaugural varsity season. Air Force is one of those squads.
The Falcons don’t have the athletes to run Michigan off the field like Denver did, and their stick skills, according to some who have seen them play this year, are nothing to write home about. This will be the first game in which Michigan can match up man-for-man. Playing their own game and staying composed will be the keys to victory.
Unlike Air Force, Michigan’s club roster is used to playing on back-to-back days (as John Paul acknowledged to me today), and that will help in the stamina department.
Predictions
I’m having a tough time – perhaps this is my (over-)optimism shining through – predicting anything short of a Michigan win. Air Force’s defense has been pitiful through a couple games, and they won’t out-man Michigan.
- Trevor Yealy makes up for his lack of impact today with three points against Air Force.
- Brian Greiner will again perform well on faceoffs, but wing play will diminish his win percentage, keeping it right around (probably just below) .500.
- Michigan will employ aggressive rides against Air Force, and that – along with a composed clearing game – will help them do better in the transition game than Air Force.
Will he do it will he do it? Yes, I will. I think Michigan wins their first game of the year, as the Wolverines defeat Air Force 11-10.
14-10 win air force.
A tired and emotionally beat down Michigan team will have their hands full tomorrow with Air Force, frankly they would have a tough time even if they were fresh. Air Force 15-11.
I tend to agree with Anon on this one. Just as Michigan is looking at Air Force as one of the games this year they have a shot to win (which is true), Air Force is approaching it the same way. And Air Force is adjusted to the altitude, where Michigan is playing the second game in two days. I think this will be close, but AF has the legs in the end.
I still don’t think I buy the altitude argument. If Michigan loses, that won’t be a factor – most of their roster is used to playing 4 games in five days in Denver from the last three years of MCLA Championships. Add in the fact that Michigan emptied much of their bench through the fourth quarter yesterday, whereas the Falcons were in a competitive game to the end, I don’t think it will be a huge factor.
Now, the experience, etc., still plays a factor, but a few people who were at both games yesterday – including a couple whose opinions I really trust – said that, man-for-man, Air Force just doesn’t have the talent that Michigan does (unsurprising for a service academy that’s not a power). I think if Air Force wins, it will be more on account of taking advantage of “not being happy just to be here.”
I think the “altitude” argument does hold water. Although UM’s MCLA team has played at altitude in multiple games in a week in the past it was against other teams that did not always play at altitude. Colorado Springs is even higher altitude than Denver. Also, USAFA and Denver have been doing these multiple game weekends for years now. I’m not sure who wins, but the altitude will probably be a factor for the Wolverines.
Then again, Michigan made consistent road trips to take on Colorado State and Colorado (traditionally two of the best MCLA teams) outside of the MCLA Championships. Add in that those guys were regular opponents at the MCLA Championships – along with BYU (Provo altitude: 4600 feet) – and I just don’t think that altitude factor will play a huge part.
Sure, there are plenty of reasons Michigan could lose to Air Force, I just don’t see altitude being among the prominent ones.
Pingback: Sunday Lacrosse Schedule | Great Lax State
16-5 final.
Michigan isn’t winning.
15-6, but yeah, that wasn’t pretty.
Double thud this weekend- Where is the three time All American Yearly he has been a no show? Jacksonville will brutalize these guys if they play like they did today. Looking at the schedule only chance for a win is Mercer and that is looking iffy after today.
The difference between club and D1 is much, much bigger than many would have had you believe. I think that is becoming very apparent this year. This is the first time we’ve had actual results to compare between the two, or at least as close as we may ever get.
Yealy is a D1 caliber player, no doubt, but he is not a super star at this level by any stretch of the imagination.
I’m not sure you can make that comparison. The 2011 and 2010 club rosters were probably a lot better than this team. While I agree that there’s (obviously) a gap between the best of club and low-middle of Division 1, this team isn’t INCONTROVERTIBLE PROOF that is the case.
There’s no question that the Michigan teams from a few years ago were more talented. They are getting killed at faceoffs. Brekan Kohlitz played in the MLL and Reinhart was arguably as good. They could use those guys now. They had better goalies, which is also huge. They had a great lefty feeder at attack in Zorovich who complemented Yealy. They had a lot more speed at midfield. They had veteran defenders with size. They have guys playing key roles on defense now who never played with a longstick before this season. The first year at D1 is not the way you want to learn to play that position. “Hello Matthews, Matthews, Mackrides, etc. How do I use this thing?”
I AM NOT saying that a Michigan team from a few years ago would be winning now. I’m just saying they were significantly more talented and deeper then. There’s a reason they went undefeated and won three straight and then lost it last year. They weren’t as good, and this year’s team is arguably less talented than last years, especially in goal.
Recruiting will get them up to a more competitive D1 level. In the meantime, this year is obviously going to be ugly.