Detroit Preview: Quinnipiac

Road warriors continue their trail, hoping to get their second victory away from home. Thus far this season, the Titans have beaten only Mercer and A Team Whose Only Win Is Mercer, so they’re looking to pick up a confidence-building victory before heading into the conference slate.

Quinnipiac

This bobcat is looking extra-fierce

1:00 p.m., March 10, 2012
Hamden, Conn.
Live stats.

2011
7-7 (4-1 NEAC). #45 LaxPower.
Lost to Mount St. Mary’s in NEAC Finals.

2012
0-3 (Lost to Brown, Air Force, and Fairfield). No. 58 LaxPower.

Tempo-Free Profile

Three games under the Bobcats’ collective belt, so a quick look at last year’s stats first.

Last year, the Bobcats were killed on faceoffs, but made up for some of the possession deficit by riding opponents pretty well. Ultimately, they scored the exact same number of goals as opponents with just 28 possessions separating the two, so their efficiency advantage seems to be within the margin of error.

On to this year’s numbers to date:

Agan, they are getting killed on possession, with opponents winning more than 60%. They’re also clearing more poorly than opponents, leading to a possession deficit in the early going.

They’re also getting killed in efficiency, leading to their lopsided results to date. That’s artialy on account of schedule-strength metrics, but partially the Bobcats just haven’t been particularly good so far this season.

Offense

Sophomore attackman Dylan Webster is a do-everything guy for the Bobcats. As we’ll see in a moment, he’s the most effective faceoff specialist in addition to being the team’s leading scorer. His seven points include six goals, so he’s almost exclusively a finisher (however, with only 16 QU goals so far this year, that could also be a sample size deal).

Junior midfielder Basil Kostaras is right behind him in scoring with five goals and an assist. He’s mostly a shooter. Miniature junior attackman (5-8, 160) Brendan Wilbur and freshman attackman Leo Horine have two and one goals, respectively.

Now we move along to players who have assists, which is a completely different group. Freshman attackman Michael Sagl – he of two goals and two assists – is the only player on the roster with more than one in both categories. Freshman midfielder Matt Diehl has four assists, and is one of the biggest players on Quinnipiac’s team, measuring in at 6-2, 200. Sophomore attack Brandon Kuring has three assists from attack. Neither player has found the back of the nest this year.

Defense

Senior longpole Brandon Coppolecchia (one of only four seniors on the team, and the only one to put up any numbers of note yet this year) has seven caused turnovers to lead the team, though serving as a (bad) part-time faceoff specialist may inflate those numbers a bit – Same with Jay Binkowski’s three caused from a short-stick midfield position.

Freshman LSMCameron French has five caused turnovers, and junior midfielder Jay Messina has two. They’re your primary defensive midfielders, if statistic in a limited sample are to be believed.

Freshman longpole Greg Pendergast has four GBs on the year to lead non-faceoff, non-offensive, non-goalies.

In net, freshman Dylan Torey is the non-faceoff leader in ground balls on the team with seven. He has played all but 6:18 between the pipes this season, saving a respectable .507 of shots faced, but still managing to allow 11.40 goals per game.

Special Teams

As mentioned above, Dylan Webster has been the team’s most successful faceoff specialist this year. He’s actually winning .500 of his draws, and Quinnipiac’s struggles on draws have come courtesy of a handful of other – much less successful – guys at the position. Webster still isn’t perfect in the least – he went 1/5 to start the Air Force game, a big part of the reason he was yanked and so many other players have taken draws – but he’s the best QU has.

The Bobcats have been bad clearing and riding, so Detroit – which hasn’t stood out in the transition game yet this year – could have an advantage there if they choose to force the issue.

Quinnipiac has converted on just two of their 12 extra-man opportunities. However, against Detroit’s aggressive defense, they should get at least a couple chances to improve that mark today.

Big Picture

The Bobcats were not particularly good last year, and now they’re probably worse. This is one of the least experienced teams out there with only four seniors and the game notes point out that at least five freshmen have started in every game. For once (well, twice – sorry Mercer) Detroit will be the far older, more experienced team. That will obviously be a help.

Whereas Georgetown, Delaware, and Ohio State were potential statement wins for the Titans, this is closer to the Mercer-Michigan level of victory: lose, and it shows you’re not going to be capable of winning the MAAC, even if the game doesn’t directly impact the conference standings.

Quinnipiac game notes. Detroit game notes.

Predictions

Detroit has had some tough games so far this year. Man-for-man, they weren’t facing that serious a talent deficit against a couple of teams that blew them out. They’ll have no such issues today, as the better overall squad.

• Faceoffs have been and will continue to be an issue for Detroit. Part of that is subpar specialist play, and a lot of the blame goes to the wings. Either way, a bad faceoff team in Quinnipiac is going to finish at or above .500 this afternoon.
• Shayne Adams and Joel Matthews are licking their chops looking at an undermanned and inexperienced defense. That’s for good reason, and they’ll both put up five points.
• The TItans will continue to frustrate by committing lots of penalties, some of them of the dumb variety. Fortunately, Quinnipiac is pretty bad, and despite several opportunities, will only convert once.
• Multiple goalkeepers will play for the Titans. Chris Kelly and A.J. Levell have both earned significant playing time so far this season, although Levell seems to have moved to the top of the pecking order.

The offense will look very good, and the defense will at times look pretty scary – mostly on the man-down. At the end of the day though, Detroit is the better team, and it should show. An interesting mini-game will be to see who controls tempo. Detroit is (and will continue to be) one of the countr’s fastest teams, while Quinnipiac has started the year pretty slow, despite giving up tons of goals. I think Detroit’s pace – and team – will win out, and we’re looking at a 15-11 Titan victory.