Detroit looks to maintain its perfect record in MAAC play and put together the first four-game win streak in program history when they travel to the Big Apple to take on Manhattan tomorrow.
Manhattan
What is a Jasper?
1:00 p.m. March 31, 2012
Gaelic Park, Riverdale, N.Y.
Live stats. Live video ($).
Side rant: I will never figure out these small schools that charge people to watch their live events. You have no brand. People aren’t going to pay for that. Grow your brand by making the video free (or at least reasonably-priced).
Previously on GLS: Detroit 13, Manhattan 7.
2012
3-5 (Wins over Providence, Mercer, and Binghamton). #56 Laxpower.
Tempo-Free Profile
Despite a mediocre record, the Jaspers are right near the bottom of the stack in the LaxPower ratings (thanks to awful competition). Let’s see what they’re like on the field:
| Manhattan 2012 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Manhattan | Opponents | ||
| Faceoff Wins | 76 | Faceoff Wins | 85 |
| Clearing | 126-165 | Clearing | 128-146 |
| Possessions | 259 | Possessions | 270 |
| Goals | 50 | Goals | 82 |
| Offensive Efficiency | .193 | Offensive Efficiency | .304 |
Manhattan is mostly holding their own in the possession game. They aren’t exactly covering themselves in glory on faceoffs (.472) or in transition (they clear at .764, while opponents clear at .877), but they’re doing well enough there to not face a serious deficit in possessions.
It’s what they do with those possessions that has been a big problem. They are horrifically inefficient – even Michigan, which is pretty bad, has only had ONE game all season with as poor an offensive efficiency as Manhattan’s season average, and they’ve done that against much tougher competition.
Defensively, they are pretty poor as well, but not nearly as bad as they are on offense. Still, that mark is bottom 15-ish in the country.
Offense
The Jaspers are only averaging six and a quarter goals per game, so it should come as no surprise that they don’t have a lot of offensive standouts. All told, four guys have double-digit points so far this season.
Junior attack Brian McGrath leads the way with 11 goals and four assists for 15 total points. Senior midfielder Brendan Rogers isn’t far behind with 12 points, though the majority of his scoring has come by way of his nine assists. The next two leaders are tied at 11 points. Senior midfielder Jonathan Bourne has eight goals (second on the team) and three assists, but attack Matt Thistle may be the most talented guy on the team.
The miniature freshman has put every ounce of his 5-6, 135-pound body into scoring five goals and adding six assists – in just four of the Jaspers’ games. He got two goals and four assists against Princeton, of all teams, but hasn’t played in recent weeks, and is possibly still out injured (Manhattan College is not the Last Great Sports Information Department, is appears).
When the Jaspers do score, they assist on most of their goals. This means team play is one of their strengths, so Detroit’s aggressive style is going to open things up once or twice. But only once or twice.
Defense
Senior midfielder Mike Brooks is the leader of the close defense. He has seven caused turnovers on the year to lead the team by a wide margin – for comparison’s sake, that would put him in a tie for fifth on Detroit’s team – and has started every game. His classmate Steve Harvey (one must presume not that Steve Harvey) and junior Jeff Mohr have started just about every game for the Jaspers.
The top defensive midfielder is Alex Grandal, who leads the team in ground balls despite not taking faceoffs (presumably, he’s one of the wings on faceoffs). He’s only taken four shots all year and is not much of an offensive threat. Sophomore Sean McMahon is the primary LSM, from appearances, but the stats get muddled in there.
Between the pipes, Manhattan is the first team I’ve previewed all year that has seen significant time for multiple goaltenders. Sophomore Rich Akapnitis is in a rotation with Wiatrak, with each taking a turn as the starting keeper – and going the distance in each start. Akapnitis has played in five games, but has worse numbers (caution: that’s most likely a product of Mercer being one of Wiatrak’s opponents).
Both keepers appear, from the stats alone, to be equally talented, and aside from Wiatrak earning the opportunity to have Mercer lob shots into his chest, there hasn’t been any pattern in terms of which one plays. The only thing we know for sure is that the starter will go the distance, if precedent is any value to us.
Special Teams
On faceoffs, freshman Brian Lenskold has been the primary option, winning .478 of his draws, and doing so while picking up very very few GBs. He’s the type of faceoff man who will pop it to his wings, or occupy the opposing FOGO, rather than trying to win it himself. Junior Jonathan Crean has sen his action on faceoffs drop to just about zilch over the course of the season, but he’s an option if Lenskold struggles. He wins .462 of his draws (in a limited sample size).
The ride for Manhattan is awful, allowing opponents to approach a .900 success rate. Avoiding the dumb turnover is the key here, because the Jaspers aren’t going to force a whole lot. Their clear is just OK as well, so some pressure could create opportunities, including some in transition.
The Manhattan EMO isn’t particularly good, so Detroit’s penalty-prone nature probably should be a problem.
Big Picture
Every game in the MAAC is a big one, but that doesn’t mean every one is possible to lose. That appears to be the case in this one, as Manhattan is truly struggling, and the Titans are on a roll. No game is a cakewalk for a program that is just learning to play as the favorites, but it doesn’t seem like there’s much risk in this one.
Predictions
It shouldn’t come as no surprise, given the above, that I think the Titans win this one. How about some specific predictions, though?
- Although they’ve struggled on faceoffs in the past couple years, I have the feeling Detroit will do well in this game. They have talented wing players, and with a faceoff specialist who isn’t going to win many himself, wing play is the key. I think over .600 on the day for UDM.
- Joel Matthews continues his offensive run. Although he didn’t have a huge day statistically against Marist, he certainly had the highlight with a diving score in overtime. Manhattan’s defense is pretty bad though, and other players will have plenty of opportunity to get involved. I think Shayne Adams will have the chance to ramp his scoring back up in preparation for Siena next weekend.
- A.J. Levell has a stellar day between the pipes (and it’s possible that one of the backups, if available, sees a quarter of action). Despite assisting on most of their goals – which indicates strong team offense – the Jaspers only put 39% of their shots on cage past the keeper. They don’t exactly paint the corners.
- Detroit will have at least one player – most likely Jordan Houtby – with as many caused turnovers as Manhattan’s whole team.
- The only way this game is close is if Detroit is playing man-down practically the entire time. They’ll commit a dumb penalty or two, no doubt, but not that many.
So, uh, yeah. I think this game is going to go well for the Titans. Manhattan has been shut out twice this year – that’s unbelievably bad (I can’t recall seeing a Division-1 game end in a shutout, though it certainly happens at least a few times a season). Manhattan doesn’t exactly do anything well, and there is a lot of the game that they’re actively bad at. Detroit cruises to a 12-5 win.
That is an excellent overview… I may be heading out for the Big City Tourney at the Meadowlands… If I am going, I will be there to watch the Titans as well on Sat. AGAIN… THANKS FOR THE GREAT JOB ON THIS SITE… IT IS VERY INFORMATIVE!!!!
They should have won if Mathews had played…was he hurt? He looked like he was on the sideline but was not sure it was him. Needless to say it hurts not having the MAC’s leading scorer not on the field… Old problems cropped up, as they will when you don’t try to fix them… Face offs… Man up, and even without Mathews, the offense was sluggish and not moving around…Problems matriculated to defense, where they were not as sharp… Manhattan was not good and the Titans beat themselves… Players play, but I think the staff has to address some of the issues as well.
Not sure there’s a whole lot they can do about faceoffs, other than keep recruiting new guys. They’ve tried mixing things up (different wing players, different FO specialists, etc.) over the past two years, and it hasn’t worked.
I have seen them use a few guys, I would keep trying others until you can recruit a few players… can’t be any worse than what they have… Face offs are critical!
Well this turned out to be completely wrong….
So, uh, yeah. How did this preview/prediction work out for you? Best not to launch personal mean spirited attacks against individual opposition team members.
Point out one “personal mean spirited attack” against an individual in this preview.
It’s not my fault the faceoff specialists (the only people who I even said anything negative about, depending on your definition of “negative” and certainly your definition of “mean spirited”) win less than half of their draws. If they want people to not observe that as fact, they have all the power in the world to change it – not me.
Manhattan fans sure are cocky about winning a game by two goals against a team playing without its best player (and another one of the 4-5 best on the team for most of the contest).
Miniature Freshman, Manhattan ride is awful, Manhattan doesn’t do anything well, defense is pretty bad, face offs guy doesn’t try to win it himself. Stick to the stats and the flow of the game instead of putting in your commentary. Also, I did see your post game write up. Yeah we know you were without your best scorer. Both teams had players out but lacrosse is a team sport. You did also mention the weather…really. And yes Akapnitis strong performance was a credit to his abilities. Try to be gracious and promote the sport. It was a good game, hard fought. There were mistakes on both sides and good plays on both sides. This year I hope there is parity in the MAAC which only brings more excitement to the games and maybe more recruits to the MAAC schools. Your fans were very nice and respectful in the stands…were you there?
I’ll stick to writing the way I do. Thanks for reading.
Hey Lax Mom, easy there…
Try this. http://www.kraftbrands.com/maxwellhousecoffee/our-brews/instant-coffee/Pages/Sanka-Instant-Coffee.aspx
Like!
Lax Mom,
This is a blog. Tim’s blog in fact. He can write it however he wants. It’s like an op ed piece, but more fun to read because it’s about lacrosse.
You are also entitled, by the way, to chime in with comments to state your opinion on said blog, and on comments from all of us faithful readers and other non-bloggers.
So carry on I guess, but you’d probably be better received if you just state your opinion without attacking the guy who provides the very forum to do so.
Checking out the review and I must say that the faceoffs continue to be a concern for Detroit especially, when a Freshman faceoff specialist beat up on a bunch of Juniors winning winning 12 of 18 face-offs. What ever this kid is doing, he will be a force in the MAAC for the next 4 years. Lenskold is currently ranked 34th in the country at .512. Not bad for a Freshman. While Davenport, a Junior is ranked 51 at .452. Looking at the stats, Lenskold is getting better and also is picking up more GB. If Detroit ever wants to compete at the X, they need to recruit a faceoff player from the East Coast, where real lacrosse is played. Hey Tim, send me your faceoff update, the stats speak for themselves. Just remember the Freshman?? My guess is that he will rule the MAAC for the next 3 years, as Robarge is graduating this year from VMI.
The stats actually show that there’s not much reason to expect improvement from year-to-year for faceoff specialists. Ranking No. 34 in the country as a freshman is just as impressive as doing the same as a junior or senior. Sure, No. 34 in the country is impressive, regardless of class status, but expecting the raw numbers to improve is unwise (although, freshman-to-sophomore is the only year in which there was consistent improvement).
With a number of other factors at play (though he’s faced Robarge, Lenskold has also racked up good numbers against awful units from the likes of Detroit), Lenskold is certainly a net asset, but not a dominating force by any stretch.
Lenskold started off the season against some good teams Lehigh, Princeton and Hopkins. I watched him play against Hopkins on ESPNU and he won almost every clamp against Mike Poppleton. The only difference is that Hopkins has superior wings and can pick up GB. Manhattan needs help in this area, especially if you look at their GB stats. From watching Lenskold, he is a force, not a statistic and your own stats confirm that he will be better next year. There is definately a transition from H.S. (Bridgewater-Raritan, NJ 2011 State Champions) to D1 college as their is a learning curve. Watching Lenskold @ Marrist, he definately looks more comfortable at the X and has been improving in every aspect of the X, including GBs. I am told that he is a very hard worker and does not like to loose, he comes from one of the best public high school programs in the country. He has a winning attitude!! Things can only get better for Manhattan with Lenskold at the X. Detroit needs some experienced players from the East, if they are going to ever compete for a championship in the MAAC.
Lehigh is a poor faceoff team and Princeton is barely above average. While I don’t doubt Lenskold is poised to do good things in the MAAC for the next three years, his performances to date have been good, but nothing spectacular.
Only time will tell. But after watching Lenskold, my $$ is on him to rule the X in the MAAC.