Detroit Preview: Jacksonville

I just previewed Jacksonville not so long ago for their game against Michigan, so I’ll keep this one relatively brief. Long story short for the Titans: just win.

Jacksonville

Fear Flipper!

Noon EST April 14, 2012
Titan Field, Detroit.
Live Stats.

2012
5-6 (2-2 MAAC). #46 Laxpower, #44 Tempo-free.

Tempo-Free Profile

Raw numbers here should be good. I caution that the calculations adjusting for schedule strength (listed below the table) are slightly out-of-date because the database is temporary not accepting new games. YAY TECHNOLOGY.

The Dolphins have a blistering offense based on the raw numbers, but once the strength-of-schedule adjustments are factored in – hello, playing Michigan and Mercer and VMI, three of the nation’s bottom five defenses! – things look a little more normal. That puts them at .288, almost exactly average in the country. The Dolphins’ defense is revised downward from an already-meh number to .317, good for 43rd of 61 teams.

In the possession game, Jacksonville is getting killed on faceoffs, but partially making up for it with a positive efficiency margin (more of their possessions ending in goals means fewer opponent clears). They are the anti-Michigan, with an excellent clear and one of the country’s worst rides.

Offense

For more on the offense, check the previous preview (linked at the top of the post). Points to note:

• As expected, Cameron Mann is atop the Jacksonville ledger in terms of total scoring. However, TJ Kenary has slipped slightly from expectations, and is fourth on the list.
• Half-jew, half-breakfast, all awesome, Ari Waffle is second on the team in scoring. He’s more a finisher than the balanced Mann.

The Dolphins have a pretty balanced offense, and although Mann and Waffle stand above the rest, there’s a steady decline down the ledger, rather than a precipitous drop.

Defense

The defense is almost exactly as written earlier. I may as well just blockquote myself:

Jake Ziegler started every game on defense for JU last year, and returns for his senior season. Junior Tanner Gard is also a returning starter, but freshman Charlie Archer has drawn into the starting lineup alongside those two in two of the Wolverines’ first three games, after senior Ben Schaefer started the first but has not started in the most recent two.

Ziegler, Gard, Archer has been your starting defense in almost every game.

Between the pipes, Peter DeLuca has been The Guy for all but five minutes of the season. He’ll go the distance as long as this one is competitive. He saves .570 of shots faced, and is allowing 10.32 goals per game.

Special Teams

Both Jacksonville faceoff specialists have ranged from mediocre to bad over the course of the year, with Jeff Vogt taking more draws than Dan McNulty, and seeing significantly more success doing it.

As mentioned above, the Jacksonville clear is awesome, the ride is terrible. They’re the anti-Michigan. Against Detroit’s ride – which has been very good this year – it’ll be interesting to see whether immovable object or unstoppable force emerges victorious.

Big Picture

The Titans need to win this game. After looking like the class of the MAAC, or at least close to it, for the first half of the year, they’ve fallen fast. Although they’ve only lost their last two games, one was to a poor Manhattan team.

Detroit should have what it takes to beat Jacksonville – especially at gome – but their mental state (last week’s game included a fight) and personnel (Joel Matthews apparently has to sit out this contest on account of said fight) can both be questioned at this point in the season.

A loss in this game would mean Detroit likely ends the conference season 3-3 (God forbid they lose to VMI in the regular season finale), and depending on other results in the conference, that could see them miss out on the conference tourney altogether. This game is as much a can’t-lose as a must-win.

Official site preview from Detroit.

Predictions

Gosh, by opinions on UDM have swung radically in the past couple weeks. I was overly optimistic heading into the Manhattan game, and after that loss – and the subsequent non-competitive game against Siena – I’ve reacted too far in the other direction.

• Without Joel Matthews – as we’ve seen before this season – the offense will be quite stagnant. Detroit should (and I assume will) try to mix schemes up a bit, since what they tried last time didn’t work.
• The Detroit defense will be what keeps them in the game. Jacksonville has been pretty careful with the ball this season, but they haven’t faced a team that forces as many turnovers as the Titans.
• The possession game should be firmly in Jacksonville’s corner. Both teams have struggling faceoff specialists, but I’ve seen that it’s safer to predict doom for UDM than the opposite. The JU clear is exceptional, and the Titans might not have the same ability to ride them into the ground as they’ve done against other teams.

With UDM’s current state, things can go very sharply in one direction (banding together) or the other (falling apart). Jacksonville hasn’t exactly been lighting up the world lately, but they stuck close with Siena on the road, something the Titans couldn’t do at home. This is not quite the same team that needed overtime to beat Michigan and VMI several weeks ago. I foresee a Jacksonville win by an 11-10 score.