Detroit Preview: Delaware

Not much has changed in Newark in the two weeks since I took a look at their team the first time around, but let’s take a closer look at tomorrow’s opponent for the Titans.

Fear the Blue Hen!

Delaware

1 p.m. Feb. 4, 2012
Newark, DE
Streaming video (apparently free)

2011
11-7 (4-2 CAA). #35 LaxPower, #14 Poll.
Lost to Duke in first round of NCAA Tournament (14-15).
Defeated Detroit 13-5 on Feb. 5.

Tempo-Free Profile

I covered the basics of their statistical profile just a couple weeks ago, so I won’t dig into too many of the details. The basics: Offense slightly below average, defense slightly above average, pace of play in the country’s top third, possession just about even with good faceoffs and subpar ride/clear.

Let’s get into the details.

Offense

Delaware’s top three scorers return from last year. There are two important guys to remember at the top of the chart.

Midfielder Eric Smith and attack Grant Kaleikau tied for the team lead with 45 points apiece last year. Kaleikau was an assist man running the offense from X, whereas Smith was more of a scorer, though he only notched a few more goals than helpers. Both are seniors this season.

Behind those guys was attack Sean Finegan, now a junior. He had only 28 points, so there is a big dropoff from the top two. He was a pure scorer, however, with goals accounting for three quarters of his output – and he also had the best shooting percentage among the top scorers on the team. That leads me to believe he may be more of a skilled inside guy, but his size (5-11, 170) and non-hotbed background (Cincinnati) might indicate otherwise. Without film, it’s impossible to know for sure.

The next two players on the ledger have graduated, and midfielders Nick Elsmo and Kevin Kaminski will leave a big hole on the offensive midfield’s top line. Both were – like Finegan – mostly shooters, but their numbers weren’t nearly as good. Young midfielders Nick Diachenko and John Mills will have to step up in their absence.

Against Detroit last year, Smith scored a goal and notched three assists, now-senior midfielder John Austin scored two goals, and Elsmo, Finegan, and Anthony Ruiz each had a goal and an assist. Unfortunately for the Titans, all return except Ruiz.

Smith has been named one of the team’s five captains, and Kaleikau is a pre-season All-CAA selection.

Defense

The Blue Hens have two pre-season All-CAA selections in senior short-stick defensive midfielder Dom Sebastiani and junior D-pole Connor Fitzgerald. Both were among the team’s best players last year.

Other than those two, most notable for Delaware is who won’t be there. Pat Dowling started all but one game last year, and Matt Stefurak opened every single contest. Both of those guys will need to be replaced from the longpole unit. The Delaware defense was good last year in part because it was experienced, but that won’t be the case this season.

Goalie Noah Fossner has graduated after starting three years for the Blue Hens, and not only will his .514 save% need to be replaced, so will his experience in the clearing game. The Blue Hens weren’t great on clears last year (No. 41 in the country), so that could be an area of weakness.

Special Teams

Dan Cooney won .537 of his faceoffs last year, a better-than respectable number. He abused Brandon Davenport and Tyler Corcoran in these teams’ matchup last year, winning 14 of 19 draws. One of this season’s UDM themes applies here: if they want to win big, they have to get better at the X. Turning in a better performance in this game gives the Titans a shot at the win.

As mentioned above, Delaware was subpar on clears last year. Starting a new goalie and a mostly-new defensive unit isn’t going to help that. This is another area in which the Blue Hens could be very vulnerable.

Delaware committed many more penalties than their opponents did last year, despite not being a takeaway-dependent team defensively. They weren’t particularly disciplined in staying out of the box, and their man-up offense was bad (despite the presence of some good shooters, they only scored .214 of the time), while their man-down defense wasn’t great, either (opponents converted at a .312 clip). Unless this entire phase of the game is night-and-day better than last year, it’s exploitable.

Big Picture

Delaware was a pretty good team last year, but not a juggernaut by any stretch. Their schedule was obviously much tougher than they played by Detroit, so the raw statistics don’t quite tell the whole story.

Still, some key losses throughout the roster open up holes that can be exploited. The clearing game could be a wreck – the turnover there, especially in goal, is notable – if Detroit is able to take advantage.

The big question comes on faceoffs, where Cooney was excellent last year, and there’s no reason to suspect this year will be any different. Winning the possession game could rely on him to step it up.

Detroit’s offense was, quite frankly, not very good last year. The change in offensive coordinators from Matt Karweck to Bill Tully is a complete question mark, but no matter who is running the show, it needs to be better. A solid-but-inexperienced Delaware defense could be just the test Detroit needs.

Predictions

Before delving into Delaware’s roster, I was expecting to predict a big win for the Blue Hens, possibly in the realm of “unwinnable” for the guys on the other side of the field. However, there are some serious cracks in the lineup. The question is whether Detroit can take advantage of them, and use those advantages to outweigh some of the factors that aren’t likely to break their way (faceoffs).

I do think Detroit will go into this game with the ability to pull off the upset – and a springboard to a banner year in the Motor City. THat does not mean I think they’ll get the win.

• The Titans will struggle somewhat with chemistry on offense, thanks to the return of Joel Matthews to the lineup. Shayne Adams will still lead the team in scoring (shocking prediction!).
• The work on faceoffs won’t be 6-of-21-bad, but it won’t approach .500, either.
• The Titans will cause more turnovers than they commit.

Despite some positive strides from UDM, they still won’t be able to pull off the upset win on the road in the first game of the season. Against top-20 opposition, that’s just too much to ask. In an 85-possession game (that’s cookin’), Delaware notches a 12-9 win.