Detroit Playoff Preview: Canisius

Canisius is the team that didn’t get a preview back in mid-March due to some weird issue with my computer, so they’ll get the full treatment this time around, even though this is Detroit’s second time facing them this year.

Canisius

Fear the Griffin!

MAAC Men’s Lacrosse Championship
4:30 p.m. EST May 4, 2012
Poughkeepsie, NY
Live Stats.

2012
4-7 (3-3 MAAC). #54 Laxpower, #54 Tempo-Free.
Previously on GLS: Detroit 17, Canisius 12. Tempo-free breakdown of the first game:

Tempo-Free Profile

Canisius tempo-free stats in the raw, with a bit more detail below:

A few obvious things jump out: The Golden Griffins are poor in possession (44th nationally), and terrible both offensively and defensively (adjusted for schedule strength, 54th in both metrics). That is not a super-great way to win a lot of lacrosse games.

They’re just below-average in faceoffs and clearing, so it’s not all bad, and their ride is even above-average. They’re a decently-paced team – No. 22 in the country in total possessions – but that’s to be expected of squads that get scored on a ton, and they’re just middle-of-the-pack in the MAAC.

Full stat-ery for the most interested:

(Ignore the EMO rates, there’s an issue with the data there. If anything else seems buggy, drop a comment so we can work on a fix).

Offense

One Golden Griffin stands above the pack in terms of scoring, and it’s senior attackman Simon Giourmetakis. He has 29 goals and 10 assists (about a 3:1 ratio) to lead the team in scoring. He’s not a big guy – 5-10, 186 – but he just about carries the team.

Behind him, there are three players making up the next grouping of offensive threats. Two of them are Giourmetakis’ classmates, and fellow attackmen: this is an experienced line. Travis Gibbons is an intimidating presence at 6-2, 220, and Jimmy Haney is a rail-thin 6-0, 155-pounder. Both of them score far more than they assist (22 and 6 for Gibbons, 18 and 9 for Haney), and indication of what the offense is designed to do for the attack: let them put the ball in the net.

The lone big point-getter for Canisius who is not an attackman is freshman midfielder Tim Edwards. His score line is more assist-heavy – with 11 goals and 17 helpers, he’s the top scorer with more goals than assists, and one of just two Golden Griffins with double-digits in the latter – an indication of what his role is from the midfield.

The next two leading scorers after that solid top four have a grand total of thirteen points between them. If you can shut down Canisius’s primary offensive threats, they don’t have a whole lot of other guys who can burn you. Midfielders Nick Caldiero and Brendan O’Hagan both assist more than they score, but do very little of either.

Last time against Detroit, Haney, Gibbons, and Giourmetakis had five, four, and four, respectively (with the first two picking up an assist apiece, but all four of Giourmetakis’ points coming on goals). Edwards had a goal and an assist, and Caldiero had two assists.

Defense

LSMs Brendan Murphy and Ryan O’Hagan (whose name might be familiar from such events as “my twin brother was just mentioned on offense”) are the teaam’s leaders in caused turnovers with 12 and 14, respectively. Murphy also leads the squad in ground balls with 44. They’re both listed at the same position, but obviously one of them has been playing at least his fair share of close defense to get them both on the field at the same time.

Fellow senior Nico Capron and sophomore Dylan Knopfke have been the other most-frequently deployed defensemen. Junior D.J. Giacobbo has only played in three games, all at the beginning of the year, so I assume he’s been injured ever since.

Key short-stick midfielders are senior Justin Maderer and Mike Allaire.

Two Golden Griffins have played between the pipes, with senior Sean Callahan getting the clear #1 nod. He saves a very poor .479 of shots faced, and allows 11.23 goals per game – including 5 to the Titans with zero saves the last time these squads faced each other in March. He was yanked in short order (after less than a quarter) for the other netminder, freshman Alex Govenitto, who let in 12 goals and made just six saves. For the year, he’s been a little bit better, saving .423 of shots faced.

Special Teams

As mentioned in the tempo-free section, Canisius is a mediocre team in all areas of the possession game. The key faceoff speicalist is FOGO Mike Moran, a junior winning barely over half his draws. He’s a true face off-get off guy, and has only been tempted into two shots this season. Freshman Brandon  Bull is a part-time faceoff specialist who has actually taken 16 shots on the year, so he’s the bigger offensive threat. There’s a good chance he’s an offensive midfielder who can’t, you know, score (is there an axiom in lacrosse about SSDMs like there is in football about defensive backs? I must know).

Last time out against Detroit, Moran won 11 of 19 draws, while Bull won 6 of 12.

Canisius is a decent riding team, and a mediocre-to-bad clearing team. Both teams had an awful time moving the ball up the field last time out, combining to clear just .625 of their attempts. Expect both to clean some things up there.

Last game out was also a sloppy one in terms of penalties – something Detroit is used to – but each team cashed in just once. Both offensively and defensively, Canisius’s numbers are in the normal range, though their man-down is not quite as good at stopping opponents.

Big Picture

This game is obviously the biggest of the year for Detroit to date in that if they win, the season is extended, and the dream of making the NCAA Tournament lives on for another couple days. The stakes are huge.

They’re also huge for Canisius, but they have a few so-called intangible factors in their favor. In case it didn’t jump out to you like it did me, this is a very, very senior-heavy team. They probably know that if it’s not this year for them, it will take a couple years to climb back to this point, much less surpass it and contend for the MAAC title. They also have the revenge factor in mind from their 12-17 defeat at home on March 17.

Detroit’s situation is a scary one too, though. They’ve been banged up over the second half of the year, with important pieces such as Jamie Hebden, Brandon Davenport, and Tim Lehto missing all or most of some recent games. The Titans have been on a steady decline over the second half of the season, and the injury situation has made it tough to pull out of that. Then there’s always the Joel Matthews issue. Will he play? The offense is certainly better with him, but he’s been kept out of competition in recent weeks.

Championship Central from the MAAC website. Detroit site preview. Canisius site preview.

Predictions

The previous game between these two was decided in the final quarter – the score was 12-11 Titans heading into the final frame – so UDM’s injury situation doesn’t bode well in terms of depth. Detroit will probably be without some key players, possibly including Joel Matthews, who had seven goals and an assist last time these teams met.

• Matthews doesn’t end up playing in this game. Despite that, the offense runs better than it has at any point without him.
• Tyler Corcoran takes the majority of the faceoffs for Detroit, and does better than his 1/5 performance last time out. Brandon Davenport, despite his success last time out, is a bit more limited on draws.
• The defense for Detroit will not live up to its standards. That’s mostly on account of team health and depth, and it will allow Canisius to perform well particularly in the second half.
• The Titans will come out with an “us against the world” mentality, knowing that everything stacks up against them. That will allow them to play above expectations, but it also won’t help their reputation as a team that commits a lot of penalties (or even plays dirty).

Even though it seems as if the stars are aligning against Detroit, I think they’ll pull together and win this game, albeit in a very close contest. In fact, I’m thinking overtime. Shayne Adams nets the game-winner in a 13-12 Titan victory.